The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
To avoid the negative effects due to inflexibility of the domestic production inresponse to the increase in government consumption expenditure leads to more imports to meet the increase in domestic demand resulting from the increase in government consumption expenditure. Since the Iraqi economy economy yield unilateral depends on oil revenues to finance spending, and the fact government consumer spending is a progressive high flexibility the increase in overall revenues, while being a regressive flexibility is very low in the event of reduced public revenues, and therefore lead to a deficit in the current account position. And that caused the deficit for imbalance are the disruption of the
... Show MoreIn this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on the basis of the method of the Cen
... Show MoreThis paper presents a computer simulation model of a thermally activated roof (TAR) to cool a room using cool water from a wet cooling tower. Modeling was achieved using a simplified 1-D resistance-capacitance thermal network (RC model) for an infinite slab. Heat transfer from the cooling pipe network was treated as 2-D heat flow. Only a limited number of nodes were required to obtain reliable results. The use of 6th order RC-thermal model produced a set of ordinary differential equations that were solved using MATLAB - R2012a. The computer program was written to cover all possible initial conditions, material properties, TAR system geometry and hourly solar radiation. The cool water supply was considered time
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to examine the properties of Bayes estimators of the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution (PFD-I), by using two different prior distributions for the parameter θ and different loss functions that were compared with the maximum likelihood estimators. In many practical applications, we may have two different prior information about the prior distribution for the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution, which influences the parameter estimation. So, we used two different kinds of conjugate priors of shape parameter θ of the <
... Show MoreIncremental forming is a flexible sheet metal forming process which is performed by utilizing simple tools to locally deform a sheet of metal along a predefined tool path without using of dies. This work presents the single point incremental forming process for producing pyramid geometry and studies the effect of tool geometry, tool diameter, and spindle speed on the residual stresses. The residual stresses were measured by ORIONRKS 6000 test measuring instrument. This instrument was used with four angles of (0º,15º,30º, and 45º) and the average value of residual stresses was determined, the value of the residual stress in the original blanks was (10.626 MPa). The X-ray diffraction technology was used to measure the residual stresses
... Show MoreIn pre- Islamic poetry, there are a lot of words that indicate
peacefulness of one sort of another, in addition to the inspirations of semantic
modeling in which the poet sets himself in various horizons.
Among these words: brother, comrade, friend, companion, lover,
people, prince, home, land, country, blessing, honesty, contract, company,
justice, thankfulness, forgiveness, pardoning, guest, goodness, faithfulness,
silence, death, peace,….
In addition, there are their derivatives from various aspects that indicate
peacefulness either directly or indirectly.
At the last years, the interesting of measurement spicilists was increased to study differential item functioning (DIF) wich is reflect the difference of propability true response for test item from subgroups which have equal level of ability . The aims of this research are, inform the DIFat Namers’scale(2009) for mental health to prepare students and detect items that have DIF. Sample research contants (540) students, we use Mantel- Haenzel chi-square to detect DIF. The results are point to there are (26) items have DIF according to gender which are delated form the scale after that.
This study was carried out at the Dept. Hortic. and Land.Gard., Coll. Agric. Eng.Sci., University of Baghdad during fall season of 2019-2020, in order to evaluate the effect of nutrient solution type under hydroponic system (NFT) on growth, yield and quality of broccoli Brassica oleracea var.italica. Two experiments were carried out which were the standard solution experiment (Cooper) and the alternative solution experiment (ABEER) prepared from fertilizers. Results revealed that the type of solution used in the hydroponics system had non significant effect on the leaves content of N,K, Mg, Fe, Cu, B, Chlorophyll, leaves number, root length, weight of the main heads, number of side heads were not significantly affected. 13nt, refl
... Show MoreRation power plants, to generate power, have become common worldwide. One such one is the steam power plant. In such plants, various moving parts of heavy machines generate a lot of noise. Operators are subjected to high levels of noise. High noise level exposure leads to psychological as well physiological problems; different kinds of ill effects. It results in deteriorated work efficiency, although the exact nature of work performance is still unknown. To predict work efficiency deterioration, neuro-fuzzy tools are being used in research. It has been established that a neuro-fuzzy computing system helps in identification and analysis of fuzzy models. The last decade has seen substantial growth in development of various neuro-fuzzy systems
... Show MoreThe research endeavors to harness the benefits stemming from the integration of constraint theory into construction project management, with the primary goal of mitigating project completion delays. Additionally, it employs fuzzy analysis to determine the relative significance of fundamental constraints within projects by assigning them appropriate weights. The research problem primarily revolves around two key issues. Firstly, the persistent utilization of outdated methodologies and a heavy reliance on workforce experience without embracing modern computerized technologies. Secondly, the recurring problem of project delivery delays. Construction projects typically encompass five fundamental constraint types: cost restrictions, tim
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