The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this work, the switching nonlinear dynamics of a Fabry-Perot etalon are studied. The method used to complete the solution of the differential equations for the nonlinear medium. The Debye relaxation equations solved numerically to predict the behavior of the cavity for modulated input power. The response of the cavity filled with materials of different response time is depicted. For a material with a response time equal to = 50 ns, the cavity switches after about (100 ns). Notice that there is always a finite time delay before the cavity switches. The switch up time is much longer than the cavity build-up time of the corresponding linear cavity which was found to be of the order of a few round-trip ti
... Show MoreDistributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks on Web-based services have grown in both number and sophistication with the rise of advanced wireless technology and modern computing paradigms. Detecting these attacks in the sea of communication packets is very important. There were a lot of DDoS attacks that were directed at the network and transport layers at first. During the past few years, attackers have changed their strategies to try to get into the application layer. The application layer attacks could be more harmful and stealthier because the attack traffic and the normal traffic flows cannot be told apart. Distributed attacks are hard to fight because they can affect real computing resources as well as network bandwidth. DDoS attacks
... Show MoreTHE IMPACT OF BRITISH THEATER UPON IRAQI DRAMA
In Production and Operations Management the specialists have tried to develop a strategy to counter the risks arising from the activities of the organization and of waste of various types and therefore the risk management in the contemporary framework represents a phenomenon of new quality, and can not be this phenomenon to take practical dimensions, but the development of culture of the organization towards the risks and deal with all aspects and paint ways to address them within an integrated program, and requires new skills and systems provide accurate information capable of coordination between the various parties within the organization.
The research aims to develop a blu
... Show MoreBackground: Sonographic examination is an important tool in assessment of normal and abnormal cervical lymph nodes. The aim of the study is to assess the distribution and the characteristic features of normal cervical lymph nodes in a sample of Syrian population. Materials and Methods: Fifty healthy Syrian subjects (25 men and 25 women) with an age of 20 -60years old, who had their cervical lymph nodes examined by ultrasound. Three hundred and two lymph nodes were detected. Lymph nodes were evaluated for their number, size, site, echogenic hilus, shape, as well as for the border sharpness. The subjects were categorized by age into four groups, (20 -30, 31 - 40 , 41 - 50 , 51- 60 years ). Statistical analysis of data was done using SP
... Show MoreThe flexible joint robot manipulators provide various benefits, but also present many control challenges such as nonlinearities, strong coupling, vibration, etc. This paper proposes optimal second order integral sliding mode control (OSOISMC) for a single link flexible joint manipulator to achieve robust and smooth performance. Firstly, the integral sliding mode control is designed, which consists of a linear quadratic regulator (LQR) as a nominal control, and switching control. This control guarantees the system robustness for the entire process. Then, a nonsingularterminal sliding surface is added to give a second order integral sliding mode control (SOISMC), which reduces chartering effect and gives the finite time convergence as well. S
... Show MoreDeontic modality expresses what is necessary or possible according to the norms of morality and laws of community. It is a cover term for those cases where modal auxiliaries used to express notions like ''obligation'', ''prohibition'' and, ''permission''. Deontic modals are basically performatives, having the ''so-be-it'' component of directives in that the speaker directs the behavior of the addressee to get things done. The present study identifies the use of deontic models in international contracts to prove that there are major pragmatic strategies employed in writing them. To achieve the aim of the study, a modified model of Danet’s (1980) and Trosborg’s (1995) in accordance to Searle (1969) is used to analyze 16 texts selected fro
... Show MorePolyaniline nanofibers (PAni-NFs) have been synthesized under various concentrations (0.12, 0.16, and 0.2 g/l) of aniline and different times (2h and 3 h) by hydrothermal method at 90°C. Was conducted with the use of X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared spectra (FTIR), Ultraviolet-Visible (UV-VIS) absorption spectra, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA), and Field Emission-Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE-SEM). The X-ray diffraction patterns revealed the amorphous nature of all the produced samples. FE-SEM demonstrated that Polyaniline has a nanofiber-like structure. The observed typical peaks of PAni were (1580, 1300-1240, and 821 cm-1 ), analyzed by the chemical bonding of the formed PAni through FTIR spectroscopy. Also, tests
... Show MoreIn this paper a new structure for the AVR of the power system exciter is proposed and designed using digital-based LQR. With two weighting matrices R and Q, this method produces an optimal regulator that is used to generate the feedback control law. These matrices are called state and control weighting matrices and are used to balance between the relative importance of the input and the states in the cost function that is being optimized. A sample power system composed of single machine connected to an infinite- bus bar (SMIB) with both a conventional and a proposed Digital AVR (DAVR) is simulated. Evaluation results show that the DAVR damps well the oscillations of the terminal voltage and presents a faster respo
... Show MoreIn this paper, a new analytical method is introduced to find the general solution of linear partial differential equations. In this method, each Laplace transform (LT) and Sumudu transform (ST) is used independently along with canonical coordinates. The strength of this method is that it is easy to implement and does not require initial conditions.