The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Research Summary :
Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of the Messengers, his family and all his companions, then after:
This is a brief research that contained its two rudders the command and its Style in Surat Al-Ma’idah a fundamental rhetorical study, and the study clarified the meaning of imperative in both; the Arabic language and in the terminology of the fundamentalists and rhetoricians in a concise manner, and then indicated the imperative of the command , the true meaning, and the meanings interpretated as an imperative form. I have mentioned some verses of Surat Al-Ma’idah, so what I have quot
... Show MoreViolence is one of the most serious threats facing societies because it affects their internal structure and threatens the security and stability of society. It is classified as one of the types of security crises that are emerging in Arab and Islamic societies in particular, and in most countries of the world in general.
The threat of this crisis is increasing. Terrorism is considered as one of the most serious aspects of that all the countries of the world, currently, suffer from. The terrorism has begun to penetrate deep into society in one way or another starting from the Second World War, which led to the emergence of leftist movements in Western Europe, Japan, France, Italy and other countries as a result of emerging ideas
... Show MoreThe problem of job burnout has become one of the main problems for researchers in social welfare organizations (social protection bodies) - one of the formations of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. Its negative effects increased in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in light of the Corona pandemic, the pressures and burdens of workers varied, which resulted in high rates of anxiety, tension, and intellectual and physical exhaustion, and then negatively affected their efficiency in performing work at the individual and organizational level, especially after the increasing tasks of these Bodies in carrying out their role in achieving the general goals and objectives as beingThe general goals are that they are responsible for providi
... Show Moreresearch objectives to:
1. identify the social, economic and cultural factors affecting consumption.
2. detect the consumption culture among the population in the city of Erbil.
3. Identify the GATT consumer protection and rights.
The most important results:
1. that there is variation in the answers of respondents about keep up with modernity in the basic consumption (necessary), it swallowed the proportion of yes answers about keep up with modernity in food consumption (72%), and is an indication of growing consumer awareness of the individual in the side of nutrition. The clothing on the side of the proportion of yes answers amounted to (85%), in the health field note that the percentage of yes answers (83%), who are abr
The objective of this study is to highlight the skills of office managers and it's impact on the effectiveness of time management in the institutes and faculties of middle technical university and a group of cognitive and practical aims. The managers skills forms mthe modern trend and the main source to provide organizations with highly skilled managers with distinctive performance and because of the sharp changes in the environment which today's organizations works in it , business organizations generally and managers especially realise the importance of time management and it's role in achieving competitive advantage . The problem of this study raised from this point which reflect the extent of departments managers realisation
... Show MoreOne of the most common procedures in oral surgery is the removal of impacted mandibular third molars, often followed by pain, swelling, alveolitis, and trismus. Purpose. To compare the outcomes of the intrasocket application of 1% hyaluronic acid oral gel (HA) and advanced platelet-rich fibrin (A-PRF) on the expected postoperative complications, pain, swelling, and trismus follow the surgical extraction of the impacted mandibular third molar. Material and Methods. A randomized controlled trial was conducted at the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Unit, Dental Teaching Hospital. Healthy patients who required surgical removal of the impacted mandibular third molar were divided randomly into three groups. The extraction site of the group
... Show MoreThe importance of the research comes from dealing with the problem of lack of traffic awareness, which causes accidents and the occurrence of human and material losses, and the research aims to study the role of satellite channels in forming traffic awareness among the public, and a sample was chosen from Baghdad consisting of (280) individuals, male and female, and used the questionnaire tool. To obtain the data, which included several questions, the results were analyzed statistically and several results were reached, the most important of which is that there is an interest among the public in following traffic programs at a rate of one to two hours to receive information through traffic programs and to identify and apply gener
... Show MoreI dealt with this study of one of the hadiths of the Prophet and judged him after studying his deed, especially one of his narrations for the similarity in his name and the name of his father (Abdul Rahman bin Ishaq) Is he a civil "Sadok" or Wasti "weak" and they are in one layer which is called in the science of Hadith (agreed And after a review of Kutkut translations and wound and amendment and other evidence and evidence that it was "weak" and not as he went to him and asserted by the updated Muhammad Nasser al-Din al-Albani may God have mercy on him that in Sindh is a civil rule for the hadeeth "Hassan" and not as said The hadeeth is “weak” because he showed that it is the weak Wasti.
I ask God to be successful in this work an
Background: Ultrasonography has been used to examine the thickness of the lower uterine segment in women with previous cesarean sections in an attempt to predict the risk of scar dehiscence during subsequent pregnancy. The predictive value of such measurement has not been adequately assessed. Objectives: To correlate lower uterine segment thickness measured by trans abdominal ultrasound in pregnant women with previous cesarean section with that measured during cesarean section by caliper and to find out minimum lower uterine segment thickness indicative of integrity of the scar.Methods: A prospective observational study at Elwyia Maternity Teaching Hospital, from January 2011 to January 2012. A total of 143 women were enrolled in the stu
... Show MoreThis study was conducted at the Poultry Research Station, Animal Resources Research Department at the Agricultural Research Department / Ministry of Agriculture - Baghdad Abu Ghraib. To find the effect of adding different proportions of Bay Laurus powder on productive performance and some physiological characteristics of birds during the production stage as Eight Hundreds Female birds of quail were used at the age of 45 days, randomly deployed to 4 treatments with two replicates (100 birds / replicate ) each, and the bay laurel powder was added in the proportions 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5% to the diets and for a period of 60 days divided into 4 periods of 15-day .The results indicated si