The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
A new modified differential evolution algorithm DE-BEA, is proposed to improve the reliability of the standard DE/current-to-rand/1/bin by implementing a new mutation scheme inspired by the bacterial evolutionary algorithm (BEA). The crossover and the selection schemes of the DE method are also modified to fit the new DE-BEA mechanism. The new scheme diversifies the population by applying to all the individuals a segment based scheme that generates multiple copies (clones) from each individual one-by-one and applies the BEA segment-wise mechanism. These new steps are embedded in the DE/current-to-rand/bin scheme. The performance of the new algorithm has been compared with several DE variants over eighteen benchmark functions including sever
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This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
... Show MoreThe agricultural activity has a great significance in the all four dimensions of sustainable development. Firstly, the economic dimension which it contributes with the GDP, as well as, it is considered as an important source to attract the investment. Secondly, the environmental dimension which also contributes with conserving of the biodiversity, combating the desertification, and increasing the farmlands. Thirdly, for its role in the social dimension to achieve the food security, to eradicate the poverty, and providing jobs. Fourthly, toward the institutional dimension as well it is considered as a source that allows all people to participate effectively, and to exchange of the local and universal experiences and perspectives. For conf
... Show MoreVillages in most rural areas of the developing world, including Iraq, suffer from a deterioration in the urban structure in its various aspects, both in the lack of internal planning in terms of residential unit design which is not commensurate with the sustainable health life, in addition to the lack of infrastructure and community services networks As well as road networks linking them to neighboring urban centers, which was accompanied by the emergence of other problems, including the desire of the population to migrate to neighboring cities and the deterioration of economic activities due to lack of activation of economic development plans (Rural villages suffer from a lack of interest in urban development within the regional spatial
... Show MoreUrban planning task and the control of constructional planning and urban management for cities considers the main tasks that the government takes care off. The paper discusses the concept of power from historical view of ancient Islamic cities to discover the strategies of urban management that the Islamic city adopt and to employ it in contemporary cities ,the more problems that modern cities suffer from which appears through poorness of urban context ,belongs to the loss of balance exists between the different faces of power that takes the tasks of urban management .therefore enhancement of urban environment is being through re-back that balance in administrative structures that make the cities go ahead . So the attention has b
... Show MoreInvestigations made and soil samples brought from 14 sites in different areas, including Abu Ghraib and Al Anbar. Tests and measurements made in the Microbiology Laboratory at the College of Agriculture, University of Anbar. Department of Soil Sciences and water Resources, in order to isolate bio-fertilizers and test isolates fixing nitrogen in atmosphere and solvents for phosphorous compounds efficiency. The experiment included isolating and diagnosis of bacteria from rhizosphere soils of different plants that were brought from different agricultural areas, 74 isolates obtained by soils alleviation, and then the bio-chemical morphological and microscopic characteristics of these soils studied. The results showed that the most abundant and
... Show MoreQuality function deployment tool is trying to improve health services through this study that will be applied in health sector environment , and be based on applying quality function deployment tool (QFD) TO preferable evaluation of main patients requirements in order to determine the technical requirements that need most attention across improving and developing health services .
Main requirements are determined to patients lying in the hospital (under research) which is (educational Baghdad \ medicine city office) in Baghdad, and other technical requirements through pers
... Show MoreLanguage always conveys ideologies that represent an essential aspect of the world we live in. The beliefs and opinions of an individual or community can be organized, interacted with, and negotiated via the use of language. Recent researches have paid attention to bullying as a social issue. They have focused on the psychological aspect of bullying rather than the linguistic one. To bridge this gap, the current study is intended to investigate the ideology of bullying from a critical stylistic perspective. The researchers adopt Jeffries' (2010) critical stylistics model to analyze the data which is five extracts taken from Hunt’s Fish in a Tree (2015). The analysis demonstrates
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the tax policy strategy adopted in Iraq after the change of the tax system in 2003 and beyond, and then make a comparison of the two strategies on corporate data whether they are charged with progressive tax rates and after the change of the system as the tax rates became fixed, and then indicate the changes In the tax proceeds, and knowing the imensions of the approved tax policy, is it a tax reform strategy or a strategy to attract investments.The research started from the problem of exposure of the Iraqi tax system to several changes, as this led to a reflection on the technical organization of taxes, in terms of the tax rate.The descriptive analytical approach was chosen to study the actual reality of th
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