The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract
The scope of the humanitarian tragedies in the Arab region has widened after the conflicts that erupted over the past years, exacerbation to include educational, cultural, and social dimensions, economic and moral aspects of the displaced families, especially after the emergence of terrorist organizations and sectarian conflicts which overthrew human and led to various political and demographic changes, forcing citizens to leave their homes, fleeing with their families from the danger of murder, terrorism, and violation to other safer areas inside or outside their countries. Women and children were the vast majority of the displaced who were subjected to great pressures, The host communities bore the pro
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the relationship between spatial ability and the physical structure of concepts to the students of the Faculty of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn al-Haitham، research involved students from the third class / morning study for the year 2011/2012 totaling (98) male and female students ،distributed into three groups which were selected randomly . The number of students (26 males and females) represented research sample after excluding repeaters and absentees، the research included two tests ; one test of spatial ability، which included (20) items and other test the physical structure of concepts، which included (12) items distributed into four domains ، the first (linking b
... Show MoreThe research tried to show the importance of Administrative Control being one of the important means in administrative work; they work on the review and audit work done and error handling explored in the work and prevent the occurrence and ascertain the extent of implementation of the planned targets, and therefore this is reflected in raising the efficiency of the performance of the tax examiner and complete the work as soon as possible and the highest efficiency and reduce the gaps that may occur between the parties of the tax settling accounts and dealt with in the theoretical side of the search to the research problem, namely with whether operating management oversight to improve the performance and increase the efficiency of t
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify the role of satellite channels in imparting behavior to children from the point of view of their parents in Tulkarm city. The researcher used a descriptive technique. A sample of (18000) males and females married couples was used above 20 years old in the city of Tulkarm. The study sample size is (201) married couples. It took place in September 2020. The questionnaire was the main tool for collecting data. The study found that the total degree of satellite channels contribution in imparting negative behaviors to children was high, as it reached (72.20%). The total degree of the role of satellite channels in imparting positive behaviors to children was medium, reaching (69.20%). Moreover, the results also indi
... Show MoreThe effectiveness of upward training with weights to develop explosive power, characterized by speed and some functional variables for young volleyball players Many efforts of sports laboratories in various countries have been devoted to laying scientific foundations and rules in caring for the physical, skilled, planning, and psychological preparation of players and creating the conditions and requirements for reaching players to higher standards. The research aims to:1- Preparing an ascending training program with weights to develop explosive strength, which is characterized by speed and some functional variables for volleyball players.2- Identify the effect of the training program with upward training in weights to develop explosive stre
... Show MoreIn this research the change in the distance of the two stars in two binary star systems (13.6+8)M8and (13+10)M8 was studied, through the calculations the value (rate of mass transfer) of the two phases of dynamical stages of mass which are mass loss and mass transfer has been extracted in its own way ,by extracting the value of the value of (the distance variation between the two stars) has been found only in the mass transfer stage by using mathematical model ,in mass loss stage and were calculated from the change and the difference between the values of each at different times of binary star system evolution ,it was found that the maximum values of and are in ma
... Show MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is preparing exercises according to some biomechanical variables for women with low back pain and identifying the effect of exercise according to some biomechanical variables and relieving lower back pain for women. The researchers used the one-group experimental design. The sample was chosen by the intentional method to provide the necessary conditions for conducting the study, and they represent the research community and its sample. The researchers also excluded (2) of the injured women because they did not adhere to the rehabilitation sessions, and for the purpose of ensuring the homogeneity of the sample members, the researchers used the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, and the torsion coefficient
... Show MoreThe research aims to clarify the response of the GDP to the M1 shock. It includes access to the results using standard methods, where the standard model was built according to quarterly data using the program STATA 17. According to the joint integration model ARDL, the research found a long-term equilibrium positive for the relationship between GDP and the money supply in Iraq, as the change in the money supply by a certain percentage will lead to a change in GDP by about 71% of that percentage. In the event of a shock in the Iraqi economy, the impact of the M1 will differ from what it was before the shock, as the shock will increase its effectiveness towards GDP by about 10% more than before the shock. At the same time, the relationship
... Show MoreThis paper compare the accurecy of HF propagation prediction programs for HF circuits links between Iraq and different points world wide during August 2018 when solar cycle 24 (start 2009 end 2020) is at minimun activity and also find out the best communication mode used. The prediction programs like Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOACAP) and ITU Recommendation RS 533 (REC533 ) had been used to generat HF circuit link parameters like Maximum Usable Frequency ( MUF) and Frequency of Transsmision (FOT) .Depending on the predicted parameters (data) , real radio contacts had been done using a radio transceiver from Icom model IC 7100 with 100W RF
... Show More