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bsj-7489
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
NUMERICAL TAXONOMY OF GENUS FICUS L. 1753 (MORACEAE), WITH ADDITION NEW RECORD SPECIES TO EGYPT
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The taxonomy of Ficus L., 1753 species is confusing because of the intense morphological variability and the ambiguity of the taxa. This study handled 36 macro-morphological characteristics to clarify the taxonomic identity of the taxa. The study revealed that Ficus is represented in the Egyptian gardens with forty-one taxa; 33 species, 4 subspecies and 4 varieties, and classified into five subgenera: Ficus Corner, 1960; Terega Raf., 1838; Sycomorus Raf., 1838; Synoecia (Miq.) Miq., 1867, and Spherosuke Raf.,1838; out of them seven were misidentified. Amongst, four new Ficus taxa were recently introduced to Egypt namely: F. lingua subsp. lingua Warb. ex De Wild. & T. Durand, 1901; F. pumila L., 1753; F. rumphii Blume, 1825, and F. su

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 12 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Outcome of surgical untethering of tethered cord syndrome in adults due to spina bifida occulta
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Background:. Children with spina bifida occulta require early surgery to prevent neurological deficits. The treatment of patients with a congenitally tethered cord who present in adulthood remains controversial.

Objective: The aim of this study is to describe the outcome obtained in 61 adult patients with congenital TCS and no prior surgical treatment who underwent surgical untethering.

Methods: This prospective study was conducted on 61 adult patients who underwent surgical untethering for spina bifida occulta at four neurosurgical centers in Baghdad / Iraq  between March 2000 and January 2018. Patients who had undergone prior myelomeningocele repair or tet

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare to the conditional logistic regression models with fixed and mixed effects for longitudinal data
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Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 05 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Morbidity and Mortality Pattern of Neonates Admitted to Neonatal Care Unit.Central Teaching Pediatric Hospital Baghdad
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Background; Neonatal period is a very vulnerable period of life due to many problems, In spite of advances in perinatal and neonatal care still, the mortality rate of neonate high especially in developing country The World Health Organization estimates that globally four million neonatal deaths per year, Developing countries account for around 99% of the neonatal mortality in the world, In Iraq. Neonatal mortality rate about 19 per 1000 live births which represent 56% of child death below 5 years age in 2012. .
Objectives The aims of the study were to determine the institutional new-born case fatality rate and the cause of admission and death in the neonatal care unit.
Method; Across-section study was carried out of the Neonatal Ca

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Cognitive motivation and its relationship to the concept of self on middle school students (female)
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The preparatory phase since it corresponds to adolescence are the most important stages of life , where the individual 's personality to take shape at this stage and start asking questions about the same , trying to discover the positive and negative traits hehas in order to form distinctive character and also is being he have Love Poll For everything that goes on around him.
And attention to cognitive motivation is important for students because the student who owns a motive cognitively looking for self - knowledge with conviction, and learning then be meaningful and lasts long. The motive of knowledge are common in which cognitive components does not mean exclusive knowledge on academic books and research in the narrow borders but a

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Response of Some Properties of (Al-Si-Mg) Alloy to Nano-Ceramic Materials’ Addition
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Al-Si alloys which are widely used in engineering applications due to their outstanding properties can be modified for more enhancements in their properties. Current work investigated the ability of these alloys to be modified by casting them through the addition of nanoparticles. So, Multi-wall carbon nanotubes (CNT) and titanium carbide ceramic particles (TIC) with size of (20 nm) were added with different amounts started from (0.5 up to 3%) weight  to cast alloy A356 that was considered to be the base metal matrix, then stirred with different speeds of (270, 800, 1500, 2150) rpm at 520 °C for one minute. The results showed change in microstructure’ shape of the casted alloys from the dendritic to spherical gra

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of computer textbooks content for intermediate stage according to the theory of multiple intelligence
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The purpose of current study is to analyze the computer textbooks content for intermediate stage in Iraq according to the theory of multiple intelligence. By answering the following question “what is the percentage of availability of multiple intelligence in the content of the computer textbooks on intermediate stage (grade I, II) for the academic year (2017-2018)? The researcher followed the descriptive analytical research approach (content analysis), and adopted an explicit idea for registration. The research tool was prepared according the Gardner’s classification of multiple intelligence. It has proven validity and reliability. The study found the percentage of multiple intelligence in the content of computer textbooks for the in

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 03 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The concept of tira according to Imam Al-Manawi in his book Fayd Al-Qadeer
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Tira is a custom known to the Arabs since the pre-Islamic era. in the occurrence of good or evil. And from the pessimism: that the Arabs in the pre-Islamic era depended on birds, so if one of them went out for a matter, If he sees a bird flying to the right, he will believe in him and go on his journey and his need. The research aims to introduce Imam Al-Manawi and explain his saying in Al-Tira through his book Fayd Al-Qadeer.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Learning Cleverness of Physics Teachers in Secondary Stages According To the Variable Years of Service
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This current research aims to reveal the difference between the levels of teaching expertise of physics teachers according to the years of service by answering the following question: does the educational skill level of physics teachers work according to the service? The sample of the study consisted of (225) physics teachers by (125) females (56%), and (100) males (44%), distributed on (4) education directorates in Baghdad governorate on both sides of al-Karkh and al-Rusafa. In order to achieve the aim of the study, the researcher prepared a note card for expertise teaching, consisting of (39) paragraphs distributed into (5) fields. The apparent validity and reliability of the card were verified through an agreement (the researcher hers

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Publication Date
Thu May 13 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Development In Social Science And Humanities
The Impact of Teachers using Storytelling Techniques through Virtual Instruction to Increase English Speaking Ability
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DBN Rashid, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT IN SOCIAL SCIENCE AND HUMANITIES, 2021

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