The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Credit derivatives (CDs) have been increasingly acknowledged as an important requirement to hedge and transfer credit risk CR. Nonetheless, they have been extensively criticized for destabilizing the whole economic system bringing about the latest subprime credit crisis. The study’s main aim is to investigate the reason for the use of (CDs), whether it is used for hedging or trade purpose, for four of the US international financial institutions that had made it through the 2007 crisis to resume functioning post-crisis. This will be for three different and critical periods, namely the pre, during and after crisis periods (Q1, 2000-Q1, 2014). Adopting the SUR technique, the investigation of the factors that influence the net position of (CD
... Show MoreExploitation of mature oil fields around the world has forced researchers to develop new ways to optimize reservoir performance from such reservoirs. To achieve that, drilling horizontal wells is an effective method. The effectiveness of this kind of wells is to increase oil withdrawal. The objective of this study is to optimize the location, design, and completion of a new horizontal well as an oil producer to improve oil recovery in a real field located in Iraq. “A” is an oil and gas condensate field located in the Northeast of Iraq. From field production history, it is realized the difficulty to control gas and water production in this kind of complex carbonate reservoir with vertical producer wells. In this study, a horizont
... Show MoreThe duration of sunshine is one of the important indicators and one of the variables for measuring the amount of solar radiation collected in a particular area. Duration of solar brightness has been used to study atmospheric energy balance, sustainable development, ecosystem evolution and climate change. Predicting the average values of sunshine duration (SD) for Duhok city, Iraq on a daily basis using the approach of artificial neural network (ANN) is the focus of this paper. Many different ANN models with different input variables were used in the prediction processes. The daily average of the month, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, cloud level and atmosp
... Show MoreResults of exposure larvae of the most important predator in the integrated pest management , the green lacewings, Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens) to various densities of fig moth Ephestia cautella eggs showed increasing in the number of consumed prey at decreasing rate of increasing prey density where curve slope consumption decreased gradually until leveling off. These specifications concurred with type II functional response that predators appear towards varied densities of its preys ,that was confirm by logistic regression between the proportion of prey eaten in relation to prey offered . Third larval instars of the predator showed attack rate (a) of 4.85. This was greater than the second larval instar (3.58). Handling time (Th) per
... Show MoreA laboratory experiment was carried out in the laboratories of College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad in 2017. Three factors were studied; Sorghum bicolor L. cultivars (Inqath, Rabeh and Buhoth70), primed and unprimed seed and osmotic potential (0, -5, -9, -13 bar). The aim was to improve germination and seedling growth under water stress. The results showed significant superiority of Buhoth 70 cultivar compared to others, significant superiority of primed seed compared to the unprimed, significant negative impact as long as increasing levels of osmotic potential and significant superiority of interaction treatment (Buhoth70 × primed seed × 0) compared to others in germination ratio, radicle and plumule length
... Show MoreThe purpose of current study is to analyze the computer textbooks content for intermediate stage in Iraq according to the theory of multiple intelligence. By answering the following question “what is the percentage of availability of multiple intelligence in the content of the computer textbooks on intermediate stage (grade I, II) for the academic year (2017-2018)? The researcher followed the descriptive analytical research approach (content analysis), and adopted an explicit idea for registration. The research tool was prepared according the Gardner’s classification of multiple intelligence. It has proven validity and reliability. The study found the percentage of multiple intelligence in the content of computer textbooks for the in
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to investigate the behavior of composite castellated beam in which the concrete slab and steel beam connected together with headed studs shear connectors. Four simply supported composite beams with various degree of castellation were tested under two point static loads. One of these beams was built up using standard steel beam, i.e. without web openings, to be a reference beam. The other three beams were fabricated from the same steel I-section with various three castellation ratios, (25, 35, and 45) %. In all beams the concrete slab has the same section and properties. Deflection at mid span of all beams was measured at each 10 kN load increment. The test results show that the castellation process leads to
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