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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Assessing Close Range Photogrammetric Approach to Evaluate Pavement Surface Condition
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The aim of this research is to adopt a close range photogrammetric approach to evaluate the pavement surface condition, and compare the results with visual measurements. This research is carried out on the road of Baghdad University campus in AL-Jaderiyiah for evaluating the scaling, surface texture for Portland cement concrete and rutting, surface texture for asphalt concrete pavement. Eighty five stereo images of pavement distresses were captured perpendicular to the surface using a DSLR camera. Photogrammetric process was carried out by using ERDAS IMAGINE V.8.4.  The results were modeled by using a relationship between the photogrammetric and visual techniques and selected the highest coefficient of determinatio

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 19 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Universities Governance Accourding to Incremental Approach for Strategic Decision
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The research's purpose is to highlight the role that the Approach of the strategic decision play in universities' governorships, assuming that the universities' governorship are definite result that can be reached by modern universities through their active strategic decisions that they take based on the correct way of thinking and the appropriate entrance that achieve the strategic goal of these decisions. The current research depended on two curriculums necessitated by the research requirement which are the analytical description curriculum and compare curriculum, the field research was done in the (Baghdad and Al-Mustansiriya) universities, the samples that were selected were the president, assistants and members of the board'

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Abu Mijlaz Al-Basri and his approach to traditional interpretation
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Research summary

 


This research discloses the study of the methodology of one of the notables of the followers, which is: (Abi Mijlis Al-Basri), who had a clear impact on many commentators after him, especially in the field of interpretation by impact. This study included two topics:

The first: his biography and scientific

The second: his methodology in the traditional interpretation.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 22 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Multiwavelet based-approach to detect shared congestion in computer networks
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Internet paths sharing the same congested link can be identified using several shared congestion detection techniques. The new detection technique which is proposed in this paper depends on the previous novel technique (delay correlation with wavelet denoising (DCW) with new denoising method called Discrete Multiwavelet Transform (DMWT) as signal denoising to separate between queuing delay caused by network congestion and delay caused by various other delay variations. The new detection technique provides faster convergence (3 to 5 seconds less than previous novel technique) while using fewer probe packets approximately half numbers than the previous novel technique, so it will reduce the overload on the network caused by probe packets.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Construction And Building Materials
Linear viscous approach to predict rut depth in asphalt mixtures
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Rutting in asphalt mixtures is a very common type of distress. It occurs due to the heavy load applied and slow movement of traffic. Rutting needs to be predicted to avoid major deformation to the pavement. A simple linear viscous method is used in this paper to predict the rutting in asphalt mixtures by using a multi-layer linear computer programme (BISAR). The material properties were derived from the Repeated Load Axial Test (RLAT) and represented by a strain-dependent axial viscosity. The axial viscosity was used in an incremental multi-layer linear viscous analysis to calculate the deformation rate during each increment, and therefore the overall development of rutting. The method has been applied for six mixtures and at different tem

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Mineral Inversion Approach to Improve Ahdeb Oil Field's Mineral Classification
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Knowledge of the mineralogical composition of a petroleum reservoir's formation is crucial for the petrophysical evaluation of the reservoir. The Mishrif formation, which is prevalent in the Middle East, is renowned for its mineralogical complexity. Multi-mineral inversion, which combines multiple logs and inversions for multiple minerals at once, can make it easier to figure out what minerals are in the Mishrif Formation. This method could help identify minerals better and give more information about the minerals that make up the formation. In this study, an error model is used to find a link between the measurements of the tools and the petrophysical parameters. An error minimization procedure is subsequently applied to determine

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
New Versions of Liu-type Estimator in Weighted and non-weighted Mixed Regression Model
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This paper considers and proposes new estimators that depend on the sample and on prior information in the case that they either are equally or are not equally important in the model. The prior information is described as linear stochastic restrictions. We study the properties and the performances of these estimators compared to other common estimators using the mean squared error as a criterion for the goodness of fit. A numerical example and a simulation study are proposed to explain the performance of the estimators.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayes Estimator as a Function of Some Classical Estimator
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Maximum likelihood estimation method, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimation method and minimum mean square error estimation, as classical estimation procedures, are frequently used for parameter estimation in statistics, which assuming the parameter is constant , while Bayes method assuming the parameter is random variable and hence the Bayes estimator is an estimator which minimize the Bayes risk for each value the random observable and for square error lose function the Bayes estimator is the posterior mean. It is well known that the Bayesian estimation is hardly used as a parameter estimation technique due to some difficulties to finding a prior distribution.

The interest of this paper is that

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Characterization of a novel pathway for xanthene degradation by the engineered strain Sphingobium yanoikuyae B1DR
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Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of aromatic compounds that contain at least two rings. These compounds are found naturally in petroleum products and are considered the most prevalent pollutants in the environment. The lack of microorganism capable of degrading some PAHs led to their accumulation in the environment which usually causes major health problems as many of these compounds are known carcinogens. Xanthene is one of the small PAHs which has three rings. Many xanthene derivatives are useful dyes that are used for dyeing wood and cosmetic articles. However, several studies have illustrated that these compounds have toxic and carcinogenic effects. The first step of the bacterial degradation of xanthene is conducted by d

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
TYPES OF THINKING ACCORDING TO IBN AL-QAYYIM (Analytical Thinking as a Model)
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The human intellect and his ability to complex thinking is a characteristic that Allah has given him above all his creatures. Islam came to encourage the utilization of the mind by thought, contemplation and consideration of the kingdom of Allah, His signs and religion, and He gave us a set of legislation that preserves the mind and protects it from falling into error or deviation.

This research deals with one of the most important components of civilizations in general and Islamic civilization in particular, which is thinking and what is related to it. It is an essential and influential component in man's dealing with life around him and the for

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