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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Structure Logistic Regression Model Of Anomalies Birth In Iraq Except Kurdistan Region, for 2015)
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Congenital anomalies commonly occur in humans, possibly visible. If these anomalies appear in visible parts in human body such as face, hands and feet. They may only appear after utilizing a number of special tests in order to show by means of the anomalies that occur in the internal organs of the body such as heart, stomach and kidneys.

    Research data have comprised accessible information in the anomalies birth statistics form situated of Health and Life Statistics section at the Ministry of Health and environment, where the number of anomalies births involved in the study (2603 anomalies birth) in Iraq, except Kurdistan region, at 2015. A two way-response logistic regression analysis h

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 26 2011
Journal Name
Evolutionary Algorithms
Variants of Hybrid Genetic Algorithms for Optimizing Likelihood ARMA Model Function and Many of Problems
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 05 2010
Journal Name
Evolutionary Algorithms
Variants of Hybrid Genetic Algorithms for Optimizing Likelihood ARMA Model Function and Many of Problems
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Optimization is essentially the art, science and mathematics of choosing the best among a given set of finite or infinite alternatives. Though currently optimization is an interdisciplinary subject cutting through the boundaries of mathematics, economics, engineering, natural sciences, and many other fields of human Endeavour it had its root in antiquity. In modern day language the problem mathematically is as follows - Among all closed curves of a given length find the one that closes maximum area. This is called the Isoperimetric problem. This problem is now mentioned in a regular fashion in any course in the Calculus of Variations. However, most problems of antiquity came from geometry and since there were no general methods to solve suc

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the Causal Relationship Long-and Short-term Between the Price of Crude Oil, the Global Price of Gold and the US. Dollar Exchange Rate
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This research aims to test the causal relationship long-and short-run between the price of gold the global crude oil price and the exchange rate of the dollar and how you can take advantage of the nature of this relationship, particularly in the Arab oil states that achieve huge surpluses, including Iraq and how to keep on the purchasing power of these surpluses or reduce the levels of risk.

The problem is that the Arab oil countries, adversely affected, as a result of that relationship, due to the fact that its role confined to the sale of crude oil only. They do not have control in the dollar, then they are not able to take advantage of its impact on the price of gold the fact that gold is effective pr

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Raised excessive consumption on environment and price levels during the period 2005- 2013.: Raised excessive consumption on environment and price levels during the period 2005- 2013.
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When the financial resources of individuals and groups available, this will lead to increase the consumption ranges and sometimes reached to excessive especially to the categories that have little awareness about economic importance and its reflections. it seems that consumerism has increased in many countries including Iraq because of many factors, and the most important one is the availability of financial resources as a result of the increase in oil exports as well as the spread of consumption media department at various levels especially.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Employ of Public Relations in Building Awareness of Security against Terrorism A Survey of the Employees of the Directorate General of Public Relations and Media at the Ministry of Interior
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This study aims at identifying the role played by Public Relations in the field of security awareness of the dangers of terrorism. The research is directed to the employees at the Directorate General of Public Relations and Media at the Ministry of Interior. And that on the basis that those who play an important role in the security awareness are the security institutions, primarily the Ministry of Interior, since this Directorate is responsible for all subjects related to the public security using public relations science. It aims at identifying the functions, methods and communication tools used by the Directorate to raise awareness about the dangers of terrorism. In order to achieve the research objectives, the researcher uses the sur

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Using TermoDeck System for Pre-Cooling/ Heating to Control the Building Inside Conditions
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In this paper, experimental study has been done for temperature distribution in space conditioned with Ventilation Hollow Core Slab (TermoDeck) system. The experiments were carried out on a model room with dimensions of (1m 1.2m 1m) that was built according to a suitable scale factor of (1/4). The temperature distributions was measured by 59 thermocouples fixed in several locations in the test room. Two cases were considered in this work,  the first one during unoccupied period at night time (without external load) and the other at day period with external load of 800W/m2 according to solar heat gain calculations during summer season in Iraq. All results confirm the use of TermoDeck system for ventilation and cooling/heat

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Extent of the Practice of Iraqi Banks to Manage Profits Using the (LLp it) Model and Its Reflection on the Tax Base, A Case Study of A Sample of Iraqi Private Banks Listed in The Iraqi Stock Exchange
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The research aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi private banks practice profit management motivated by reducing the taxable base by increasing the provision for loan losses by relying on the LLP it model, which consists of a main independent variable (net profit before tax) and independent sub-variables (bank size, total debts to total equity, loans granted to total obligations) under the name of the variables governing the banking business. (Colmgrove-Smirnov) was used to test the normal distribution of data for all banks during the period 2017-2020, and then find the correlation between the main independent variable sub and the dependent variable by means of the correlation coefficient person, and then using the multiple

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Oxidation of Toluene to Benzoic Acid Catalyzed by Modified Vanadium Oxide
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A variety of oxides were examined as additives to a V2O5/Al2O3 catalyst in order to enhance the catalytic performance for the vapor phase oxidation of toluene to benzoic acid. It was found that the modification with MoO3 greatly promoted the little reaction leading to improve catalyst performance in terms of toluene conversion and benzoic acid selectivity. The effect of catalyst surface area, catalyst promoters, reaction temperature, O2/toluene, steam/toluene, space velocity, and catalyst composition to catalyst performance were examined in order to increase the benzoic acid selectivity and yield.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 20 2020
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Design The Modified Multi Practical Swarm Optimization To Enhance Fraud Detection
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     Financial fraud remains an ever-increasing problem in the financial industry with numerous consequences. The detection of fraudulent online transactions via credit cards has always been done using data mining (DM) techniques. However, fraud detection on credit card transactions (CCTs), which on its own, is a DM problem, has become a serious challenge because of two major reasons, (i) the frequent changes in the pattern of normal and fraudulent online activities, and (ii) the skewed nature of credit card fraud datasets. The detection of fraudulent CCTs mainly depends on the data sampling approach. This paper proposes a combined SVM- MPSO-MMPSO technique for credit card fraud detection. The dataset of CCTs which co

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