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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering And Applied Sciences
Comparison of Estimate Methods of Multiple Linear Regression Model with Auto-Correlated Errors when the Error Distributed with General Logistic
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In this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending on the mean square error criteria in where the estimation methods that were used are (Generalized Least Squares, M Robust, and Laplace), and for different sizes of samples (20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120). The M robust method is demonstrated the best metho

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 09 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Calculations of the Quadrupole Moments for Some Nitrogen Isotopes in p and psd Shell Model Spaces Using Different Effective Charges
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The electric quadrupole moments for some nitrogen isotopes (12,14,15,16,18N) are
studied by shell model calculations with the proton-neutron formalism. Theoretical
calculations performed using the different set of effective charges due to the core
polarization effect. The effective charges in the p-shell nuclei are found to be
slightly different from those in the sd-shell nuclei. Most of the results we have
obtained are underestimated with the measured data for the isotopes considered in
this work.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering And Applied Sciences
Comparison of Estimate Methods of Multiple Linear Regression Model with Auto-Correlated Errors when the Error Distributed with General Logistic
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In this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the performance of some r- (k,d) class estimators with the (PCTP) estimator that used in estimating the general linear regression model in the presence of autocorrelation and multicollinearity problems at the same time "
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In the analysis of multiple linear regression, the problem of multicollinearity and auto-correlation drew the attention of many researchers, and given the appearance of these two problems together and their bad effect on the estimation, some of the researchers found new methods to address these two problems together at the same time. In this research a comparison for the performance of the Principal Components Two Parameter estimator (PCTP) and The (r-k) class estimator and the r-(k,d) class estimator by conducting a simulation study and through the results and under the mean square error (MSE) criterion to find the best way to address the two problems together. The results showed that the r-(k,d) class estimator is the best esti

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Supervisory oversight role for the central bank to raise awareness of the banking supervisory: Applied Research in the Central Bank of Iraq and a sample of the Iraqi private banks
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Representing banking supervision An important function performed by the Iraqi Central Bank, in order to achieve stability in the financial and banking system, and safeguard the rights of depositors, investors and other targets, and to realize the Iraqi Central Bank banking supervision actors on banks, there must be an awareness of regulatory bank's existing control and subject them, as well as the role of banking oversight interested in spreading this awareness.
So sought search to find out the role played by the Iraqi Central Bank in raising awareness of the regulatory banking between the parties to the regulatory process, through the presentation and analysis of the legal framework for banking supervision and awareness supervisory

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 16 2019
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Exposition of University Youth to Television Advertising and its Reflection on the Development of their Cognitive Abilities A survey of students (College of Media / University of Baghdad) as ample
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This research is aimed at identifying the communicative habits and the impact of the content on the communicative process, especially the youth audience, which is one of the most important categories to which the advertisement is directed, as young people face life with passion and aspiration that make then responsive to all the influences used by the media in designing advertisements which use all the techniques and methocls to attract young people, such as relying on drama , artistic tricks, musical phrases and advertising slogans that respond to the desire of young people in entertainment.
The research aims to identify the reflection of television advertising and its impact on the development of the cognitive abilities of universi

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Contribution of Behavioral Disorders to Predicting Bullying Patterns in a Sample of Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder: College of Education and Arts - Northern Border University - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders

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Publication Date
Mon May 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
A Study of Some Growth of Two Hyborids of Tomato Plant (Lycopersicon Esculentum Mill.) Grown Under The Influence of Sodium Chloride in The Nutrient Solution and Proline Spraying to Shoot.
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The experiment was conducted inside a glasshouse at the Department of Biology/
Education college Ibn- Alhaitham/ Baghdad University during the growing season 2010-2011. The aim of the study was to assess the influence of increasing of NaCl concentration in
the nutrient solution and different concentrations of proline as spray on the vegetative growth
on the chlorophyll content, soluble carbohydrates percentage, flowers number and the proline
content of vegetative growth. The aim of this study was also to determine the satiable
concentration of proline while decrease the injerion. Effect of NaCl on the studied traits of
two hyborids of tomato plants namely Olga F1 and Hymar F1. Sodium chloride concentration
of 0

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The development of ethics management system to enhance the social responsibility of government institutions in Iraqi society An analytical study on a sample of top leadership and the presidency of
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Abstract

The objective of this research is to identify the analysis of the ethics of the administration in the development of the social responsibility of one government organizations, and to achieve the objectives of the research was the use of a questionnaire developed for the purpose of data collection and distribution to the research sample, was chosen as a total sample population (50) individuals were relying on statistical package to do a statistical analysis for this research, user, ANSI (SPSS) simple regression analysis, standard deviation, Pearson correlation coefficient.

Research findings show the role of social responsibility in achieving the university's strategy,

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of empowerment strategies on the characteristics of work enrichment An exploratory research to the views of a sample of the leaders of the Ministry of Oil in Iraq
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The study aimed to investigate the relationship between empowerment strategies and their impact on the success of enrichment work, it included the dimensions of empowerment strategies (power, knowledge, information, rewards), The dimensions of Job enrichment are (Skill variety, Task identity, Task significance, Autonomy, Feedback). The study was conducted at the headquarters of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad and was based on a sample of the leadership of the ministry of managers consisting of 215 people. The data were collected using the questionnaire method based on scientific standards adopted in previous st

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