The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical abdominal emergency. Its clinical diagnosis remains a challenge to surgeons, so different imaging options were introduced to improve diagnostic accuracy. Among these imaging modality choices, diagnostic medical sonography (DMS) is a simple, easily available, and cost effective clinical tool. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of DMS, in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis compared to the histopathology report, as a gold standard. Between May 2015 and May 2016, 215 patients with suspected appendicitis were examined with DMS. The DMS findings were recorded as positive and negative for acute appendicitis and compared with the histopathological results, as a gold standard
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Disturbs the social system in any society specially in Iraq other than
other Islamic and Arabic countries. That is according to the abnormal
conditions that Iraq has past through as wars and blockage, and lastly the
invasion. Therefore it has been necessary to put this phenomenon under
study and analysis to discover Juvenile Delinquency is one of the most
prominent social phenomenon that the important reasons behind it, and trying
to treat what can be treated of the effects of it upon society.
This study is mainly concerned with the explaining the social factors
leading toward juvenile delinquency trying to crystallize the problem of the
study in the following question: (What are the psychological,
ABSTRACT University college libraries are one of the most important information institutions for all researchers during their research and study life, they seeks to provide information sources such as; books, periodicals, theses, databases, Inquiry service and answering questions services in various disciplines to achieve its goals. In 2020, college libraries of all types stepped up to meet the needs of their users' as they responded to the impacts of COVID-19, also extended necessary lifelines to community members facing job losses, healthcare crises, and remote work and learning during an unprecedented and uncertain time. The research aim to identifying the services provided to the postgraduate students users at University of Baghdad coll
... Show MoreSome geological phenomena as landslides and the mobilization of the accumulated rocks or soil are discussed in this research by using projectiles that cause mobility and falling of these land masses which are present at the top of mountains and edges of roads and streets to avoid accidents and human disasters which will occur if they are left falling by effect of climate or vibrating factors that are produced by performing dams, bridges and reservoirs. According to the different divisions of land masses groups, primary and secondary, which depend on type of movement and material arrangement that form the mobile masses, this research had shown the effect of projectiles for every type of cannons on the mobility of every groups of these rocks
... Show MoreLoss of drilling fluid in the Nasiriyah oil field can be considered as a big,
serious, and expensive problem at the same time, therefore accurate and integrated
program must be prepared before start drilling in layers that are likely to get loss
circulation. From the available data of well Ns-13, the area of loss was detected in
five layers, which are Dammam, Um- radoma, Tayarat, Shiranish and Hartha since
these layers contain natural cracks and high porosity represented by vugs.
Methods of prevention have been identified by specifying the minimum values
of drilling parameters to reduce hydrostatic pressure, thus reducing equivalent
density of drilling mud during the circulation, depths of casing shoes is
deter
The Voluntary Obedience has great importance for the modern taxes systems and its management and this is meant the taxpayer whom in charge to pay of his taxes obligations voluntarily , he is very known of himself whereas he prepared his finishing accountings and present them as samples prepared by taxes management and settle the tax sum directly according to specified income , which has an impact to find end to tax evasion as result lead to increase the tax income and achieve the justice for the taxpayer and the state treasury
Abstract
Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
... Show More: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier mod
... Show MoreObjective : Sciatic nerve block (popliteal approach) and femoral N block is a new technique other than general anesthesia in below knee surgery because it provides adequate muscle relaxation, with good intraoperative and post-operative analgesia. Nefopam is non opioid, non-respiratory depressant and non-sedative was mixed with local anesthetics drug to study the effects. This study was done to compare the onset and duration of sensory and onset time and duration of action of motor block following administration of either bupivacaine alone with administration of bupivacaine and Nefopam in patients undergoing below knee lower limb surgeries under ultrasound guided regional anesthesia.
Methods: 100 patients with American society of anest
A newly developed FIA-merging zones spectrophotometric system, the method is rapid, accurate and sensitive for metformin hydrochloride determination through the oxidation of 1- naphthol by sodium hypochlorite and coupling with metformin.HCl in the presence of sodium hydroxide to form a blue soluble ion pair and this product was determined using homemade CFIA-Merging zones techniques , at 580 nm. Data treatment shows that linear range is (0.5-35) µg/ ml. The optimization conditions for various chemical and physical conditions of [MTF- NaOCl-α-naphthol-NaOH] system were investigated. The LOD was 0.01µg / ml and LOQ 0.1µg/ml from the lowest concentration of the calibration graph with r2% 99.18 and RSD% did
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