The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The Egyptian and Iraqi schools are one of the most important musical schools in the style of playing the oud. The influence of the style of these schools extended in the contemporary Arab world, and there were important names that emerged characterized with their style of playing. Thus, the ways of tuning the strings of oud varied between the two schools because of the difference in the ways of playing and the difference in the style of expression. The aim of the research was to identify the pluralism of the variable tunings of the strings of the contemporary Arab oud of the Egyptian and Iraqi schools, along the historical period extending from the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries to the present time. The oud has been classified i
... Show MoreThe concept of intertextuality was one of the problems that occupied the attention of critics and critics in targeting the structure of textual intertextuality between texts and their overlap in the process of producing meaning. Until intertextuality became a stable term and it can be monitored in the structure of the theatrical text and determining the mechanisms of this intertextuality between texts through fields and classifications agreed upon by the most important critics who wrote and considered intertextuality. Perhaps our previous research (the approach of exposure in the epistemological hallway to intertextuality) was an attempt to interview a terminology, which the researcher intended to monitor, through the mechanisms of inter
... Show MoreThe IGRF model is the empirical representation of the Earth magnetic field recommended for scientific use by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy(IAGA).
Since the Geomagnetic field has the abi lity to change the orientation of satellite, the strength of Geomagnetic field and its horizontal component have been studied.
This paper discusses the phenomenon of the Geomagnetic field intensity and its horizontal component at diferent altitudes and at certain latitudes, the geomagnetic field data is obtained by using IGRF2000 model at Baghdad (44.7 degree East longitude) .
The neutron, proton, and matter densities of the ground state of the proton-rich 23Al and 27P exotic nuclei were analyzed using the binary cluster model (BCM). Two density parameterizations were used in BCM calculations namely; Gaussian (GS) and harmonic oscillator (HO) parameterizations. According to the calculated results, it found that the BCM gives a good description of the nuclear structure for above proton-rich exotic nuclei. The elastic form factors of the unstable 23Al and 27P exotic nuclei and those of their stable isotopes 27Al and 31P are studied by the plane-wave Born approximation. The main difference between the elastic form factors of unstable nuclei and the
... Show MoreMagnetohydrodynamic (MHD) effects of unsteady blood flow on Casson fluid through an artery with overlapping stenosis were investigated. The nonlinear governing equations accompanied by the appropriate boundary conditions were discretized and solved based on a finite difference technique, using the pressure correction method with MAC algorithm. Moreover, blood flow characteristics, such as the velocity profile, pressure drop, wall shear stress, and patterns of streamlines, are presented graphically and inspected thoroughly for understanding the blood flow phenomena in the stenosed artery.
In this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point are
... Show MoreIn this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point
... Show MoreThe effect of number of pulses of pulsed laser on materials is studied analytically, different pulses has been used with the same delay time. The depth of possible damage to the surface of copper and titanium as well as depth of the crater to both materials were considered in this study. The study revealed that linear model is only possible when estimating depth of possible damage for copper material, this means that the depth of possible damage increases with the increment of number of laser pulses .As for titanium material, it is found the relationship is nonlinear. The depth of possible damage of titanium and copper is not the same, and copper seems to be more predictable than titanium.