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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Mon May 11 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Proposing Robust LAD-Atan Penalty of Regression Model Estimation for High Dimensional Data
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         The issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the proposed LAD-Atan estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 04 2018
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Finite Element Analysis of Concrete Beam under Flexural Stresses Using Meso-Scale Model
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Two dimensional meso-scale concrete modeling was used in finite element analysis of plain concrete beam subjected to bending. The plane stress 4-noded quadrilateral elements were utilized to model coarse aggregate, cement mortar. The effect of aggregate fraction distribution, and pores percent of the total area – resulting from air voids entrapped in concrete during placement on the behavior of plain concrete beam in flexural was detected. Aggregate size fractions were randomly distributed across the profile area of the beam. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was employed to treat the discontinuities problems result from double phases of concrete and cracking that faced during the finite element analysis of concrete beam. Crac

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 24 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Shift formal regulations on Mesopotamian pottery (Pottery Samarra model): محمد جاسم محمد العبيدي
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Operated Alandziahih "drift theory" as a science talk in most of the cash and technical studies in the early twentieth century, making him and the sciences, arts and culture both fields of experiences, in an attempt to explore the institutions that theory, a number of laws which took control in the internal structures of those acts, resulting in for those institutions to be actively contribute their ideas to guide the pace on the right track. And thus lay the foundations of this theory, which was a big affair in the early twentieth century and still vigorous pace to this day, particularly their applications in various fields of the arts.Although each type of Arts, both in the composition or the theater or means of communication, took joi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 14 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
(Social Reform in the Light of Modern Islamic Thought (Malik bin Nabi model
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Social reform is the main pillar of the organization of societies. Therefore, all religions and theories were directed to focus on this aspect as the most important element for the development of economic and cultural development. In addition to the analysis and application of the Islamic Sharia, he did not present a theory, but offered real solutions and remedies to the crises in our Arab and Islamic societies alike, despite the criticism directed at him. Z his opinions.<

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Extractive Multi-Document Summarization Model Based On Different Integrations of Double Similarity Measures
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Currently, the prominence of automatic multi document summarization task belongs to the information rapid increasing on the Internet. Automatic document summarization technology is progressing and may offer a solution to the problem of information overload. 

Automatic text summarization system has the challenge of producing a high quality summary. In this study, the design of generic text summarization model based on sentence extraction has been redirected into a more semantic measure reflecting individually the two significant objectives: content coverage and diversity when generating summaries from multiple documents as an explicit optimization model. The proposed two models have been then coupled and def

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Determination of Optimum Mechanical Drilling Parameters for an Iraqi Field with Regression Model
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An optimization analysis of drilling process constitutes a powerful tool for operating under desired pressure levels and simultaneously maximizing the penetration rate, which reduces costs and time thus increases the profit.
In this study, a composite drilling model (Young-Bourgyen model) of eight functions was used to determine the optimum drilling mechanical parameters (Weight on bit and rotary speed) for an Iraqi oil field. These functions model the effect of most drilling parameters such as formation strength, mud density, formation compaction, weight on bit, rotary speed, tooth dullness, and bit hydraulic on drilling rate. Data are extracted from bit record and drilling report of well BUZ-20 for calculation of eight exponents of

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Particle-Hole State Density Calculations with Non-Equidistant Spacing Model: I. Basic Derivation
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The basic analytical formula for particle-hole state densities is derived based on the non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) for the single-particle level density (s.p.l.d.) dependence on particle excitation energy u. Two methods are illustrated in this work, the first depends on Taylor series expansion of the s.p.l.d. about u, while the second uses direct analytical derivation of the state density formula. This treatment is applied for a system composing from one kind of fermions and for uncorrected physical system. The important corrections due to Pauli blocking was added to the present formula. Analytical comparisons with the standard formulae for ESM are made and it is shown that the solution reduces to earlier formulae providing m

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Effect of Metallicity on the AGB Stars Evolution by Using Synthetic Model
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Abstract: Stars whose initial masses are between (0.89 - 8.0) M☉ go through an Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phase at the end of their life. Which have been evolved from the main sequence phase through Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). The calculations were done by adopted Synthetic Model showed the following results: 1- Mass loss on the AGB phase consists of two phases for period (P <500) days and for (P>500) days; 2- the mass loss rate exponentially increases with the pulsation periods; 3- The expansion velocity VAGB for our stars are calculated according to the three assumptions; 4- the terminal velocity depends on several factors likes metallicity and luminosity. The calculations indicated that a super wind phase (S.W) developed on the A

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Accuracy Evaluation of Digital Elevation Model Created Using Handheld Global Positioning System Receivers
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This study aims to assess the accuracy of digital elevation model (DEM) created with utilization of handheld Global Positioning System (GPS) and comparing with Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), version 2. It is known that the quality of the DEM is affected by both of accuracy of elevation at each pixel (absolute accuracy) and accuracy of presented morphology (relative accuracy). The University of Baghdad, Al Jadriya campus was selected as a study area to create and analysis the resulting DEM. Additionally, Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to visualize, analyses and interpolate GPS track points (elevation data) of the study area. In this

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Bifurcation Analysis and Persistence of the Food Chain Ecological Model with Toxicant
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Abstract<p>In this work, the occurrence conditions of both local Bifurcation and persistence were studied, Saddle-node bifurcation appears near fourth point, near the first point, the second point and the third point a transcritical bifurcation occurred but no pitchfork bifurcation happened near any of the four equilibrium points. In addition to study conditions for Hopf-bifurcation near positive stable point that is the fourth point. Besides discuss persistence occurrence as globally property of the food chain of three species include prey, first predator and top predator with impact of toxin in all species and harvesting effect on the predator’s only. Numerical results for the set of hypothe</p> ... Show More
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