The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this study, a mathematical model for the kinetics of solute transport in liquid membrane systems (LMSs) has been formulated. This model merged the mechanisms of consecutive and reversible processes with a “semi-derived” diffusion expression, resulting in equations that describe solute concentrations in the three sections (donor, acceptor and membrane). These equations have been refined into linear forms, which are satisfying in the special conditions for simplification obtaining the important kinetic constants of the process experimentally.
History matching is a significant stage in reservoir modeling for evaluating past reservoir performance and predicting future behavior. This paper is primarily focused on the calibration of the dynamic reservoir model for the Meshrif formation, which is the main reservoir in the Garraf oilfield. A full-field reservoir model with 110 producing wells is constructed using a comprehensive dataset that includes geological, pressure-volume-temperature (PVT), and rock property information. The resulting 3D geologic model provides detailed information on water saturation, permeability, porosity, and net thickness to gross thickness for each grid cell, and forms the basis for constructing the dynamic reservoir model. The dynamic reservoir mo
... Show MoreStatic reservoir modeling is the interacting and analysis of the geological data to visualize the reservoir framework by three-dimensional model and distribute the static reservoir properties. The Petrel E&P software used to incorporate the data. The interpreted log data and core report used in distribution of petrophysical properties of porosity, water saturation and permeability for Zubair reservoir in Luhais oil field.
The reservoir discretized to 274968 cells in increments of 300, 200 and 1 meter in the direction of X, Y, and Z respectively. The geostatistical approach used in the distribution of the properties of porosity and water saturation overall the reservoir units. The permeability has been calculated
... Show MoreThe main object of this study is to solve a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE) of the first order governing the epidemic model using numerical methods. The application under study is a mathematical epidemic model which is the influenza model at Australia in 1919. Runge-kutta methods of order 4 and of order 45 for solving this initial value problem(IVP) problem have been used. Finally, the results obtained have been discussed tabularly and graphically.
In this paper, the generation of a chaotic carrier by Lorenz model
is theoretically studied. The encoding techniques has been used is
chaos masking of sinusoidal signal (massage), an optical chaotic
communications system for different receiver configurations is
evaluated. It is proved that chaotic carriers allow the successful
encoding and decoding of messages. Focusing on the effect of
changing the initial conditions of the states of our dynamical system
e.i changing the values (x, y, z, x1, y1, and z1).
Botnet detection develops a challenging problem in numerous fields such as order, cybersecurity, law, finance, healthcare, and so on. The botnet signifies the group of co-operated Internet connected devices controlled by cyber criminals for starting co-ordinated attacks and applying various malicious events. While the botnet is seamlessly dynamic with developing counter-measures projected by both network and host-based detection techniques, the convention techniques are failed to attain sufficient safety to botnet threats. Thus, machine learning approaches are established for detecting and classifying botnets for cybersecurity. This article presents a novel dragonfly algorithm with multi-class support vector machines enabled botnet
... Show MoreThe non-isothermal crystallization kinetics and crystalline properties of nanocomposites poly butyleneterephthalate, [PBT] /multiwalled-carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were tested by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). PBT/(MWCNTs) nanocomposite was prepared by ultrasonicated of MWCNTs (0.5, 1, 2, 4 wt %) in dichloromethane (DCM) and after that the powdered PBT polymer was added to the MWCNTs solution. The non-isothermal crystallization results show that increasing the MWCNTs contents, decreased the melting temperature (Tm) of PBT/(MWCNTs) nanocomposite as compared with pure PBT, while resulting in improving the degree of crystallinity. These results indicated that a little amount of MWCNTs can be evident strong nucleating agent in PBT na
... Show MoreThe estimation of the regular regression model requires several assumptions to be satisfied such as "linearity". One problem occurs by partitioning the regression curve into two (or more) parts and then joining them by threshold point(s). This situation is regarded as a linearity violation of regression. Therefore, the multiphase regression model is received increasing attention as an alternative approach which describes the changing of the behavior of the phenomenon through threshold point estimation. Maximum likelihood estimator "MLE" has been used in both model and threshold point estimations. However, MLE is not resistant against violations such as outliers' existence or in case of the heavy-tailed error distribution. The main goal of t
... Show MoreIn this paper an attempt to provide a single degree of freedom lumped model for fluid structure interaction (FSI) dynamical analysis will be presented. The model can be used to clarify some important concept in the FSI dynamics such as the added mass, added stiffness, added damping, wave coupling ,influence mass coefficient and critical fluid depth . The numerical results of the model show that the natural frequency decrease with the increasing of many parameters related to the structure and the fluid .It is found that the interaction phenomena can become weak or strong depending on the depth of the containing fluid .The damped and un damped free response are plotted in time domain and phase plane for different model parameters It is fou
... Show More