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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use of Nicotiana tobaccum extractions as a molluscicide to the snail of Bulinus truncates
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Nicotiana tobaccum L (Solanacea) extracts are used as a mollusciede to the snail Bulinus truncatus the intermediate host of urinary Schistosomiasis. LC50 of the extracts to the snail with 24 hour was 3.27 ml/l? 48 hour was 3.33 ml/l? 72 hour was 2.67 ml/l and 96 hour was 2.28ml/l. This study showed the ability to use the leaf extracts in the control of this type of snail.

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Publication Date
Thu May 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Hormonal Changes in a Sample of Iraqi Women and their Relationship to Liver Dysfunction
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There are numerous bidirectional interactions between the reproductive system and the liver. Sex steroids regulate metabolic health through signaling effects in both peripheral and central metabolic tissues, including adipose tissue, liver, skeletal muscle, and brain, and have a role in the etiology of structural and functional liver diseases. Blood samples were obtained from 90 healthy women (control group) and 90 women that have hormonal changes (patients’ group). The levels of reproductive hormones (follicle stimulation hormone/FSH, luteinizing hormone/LH, estradiol/E2, progesterone/P4) were measured by using fully automated Cobas E411, whereas those of liver enzymes (alanine transaminase /ALT, aspartate aminotransferase/AST, a

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 21 2021
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
A Comparison between Static and Repeated Load Test to Predict Asphalt Concrete Rut Depth
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Rutting has a significant impact on the pavements' performance. Rutting depth is often used as a parameter to assess the quality of pavements. The Asphalt Institute (AI) design method prescribes a maximum allowable rutting depth of 13mm, whereas the AASHTO design method stipulates a critical serviceability index of 2.5 which is equivalent to an average rutting depth of 15mm. In this research, static and repeated compression tests were performed to evaluate the permanent strain based on (1) the relationship between mix properties (asphalt content and type), and (2) testing temperature. The results indicated that the accumulated plastic strain was higher during the repeated load test than that during the static load tests. Notably, temperatur

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
An Analysis of Stress Distribution in a Spline Shaft Subjected to Cycilc Impulsive Load
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In this paper the effect of engagement length, number of teeth, amount of applied load, wave propagation time, number of cycles, and initial crack length on the principal stress distribution, velocity of crack propagation, and cyclic crack growth rate in a spline coupling subjected to cyclic torsional impact have been investigated analytically and experimentally. It was found that the stresses induced due to cyclic impact loading are higher than the stresses induced due to impact loading with high percentage depends on the number of cycles and total loading time. Also increasing the engagement length and the number of teeth reduces the principal stresses (40%) and
(25%) respectively for increasing the engagement length from (0.15 to 0

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Periodontitis among a Group of Type TwoDiabetic Patientsin Relation to Risk of Vascular Disease
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Background: Type two diabetic patients have higher risk of cardiovascular and periodontal disease. Furthermore, patients with more severe periodontal disease have higher incidence of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to assess the association between periodontal health status and the risk of vascular disease in type 2 diabetic patients. Materials and Methods: One hundred type 2 diabetes mellitus patients and fifty apparently healthy males were enrolled in this study. Oral examinations conducted were; plaque Index, calculus index, gingival index, probing pocket depth, and clinical attachment level. For the assessment of vascular risk, arterial stiffness index was used. Results: According to arterial stiffness index, type 2 diabetic p

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A proposed guideline for auditing revenues in the Iraqi environment according to IFRS 15
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   Deficiencies in revenue-related accounting standards, including American accounting standards as well as international accounting standards, prompted the issuance of the International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS 15 "Revenue from contracts with customers" as part of the convergence plan between the FASB and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) according to the requirements of The joint venture between the two councils, whereby the standard aims to define the basis for reporting useful information to the users of the financial statements about the nature, amount, timing and uncertainty about the revenues and cash flows arising from a contract with the customer, The standard is base

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 28 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Month – to – Month Until N Years Prediction for Planning a Productive Firm
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      This paper offers a monthly prediction method for planning production, inventory, workforce, sales and prices until N years. Each monthly decision will depend on last month, decisions and take in consideration the future forecasted demand. The manager can run the program in any month within a year. This method is executed by computer programming technique to maximize profits.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 12 2020
Journal Name
Medico-legal Update
Assessing the Response of a Sample of Iraqi Asthmatic Patients to Different Medication Regimens
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Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of respiratory airways characterized by distinctive history of respiratory symptoms due to variable airflow obstruction which reverses either spontaneously or in response to certain medications. Acetylcholine is a parasympathetic neurotransmitter which plays fundamental roles in the development of persistent asthma. Treatment guidelines recommend using medium doses of inhaled corticosteroids in addition to another controller bronchodilator instead of using high doses inhaled steroid alone for treatment of moderate to severe persistent asthma. The inhaled long acting muscarinic antagonist, tiotropium, was approved recently to control unresponsive asthma to inhaled corticosteroid with or without a long

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Pakistan Journal Of Medical And Health Sciences
A Computer Simulation of Hubble Telescope Including Eyepiece Nano- Sensors to Increase Optical Efficiency
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The Hubble telescope is characterized by the accuracy of the image formed in it, as a result of the fact that the surrounding environment is free of optical pollutants. Such as atmospheric gases and dust, in addition to light pollution emanating from industrial and natural light sources on the earth's surface. The Hubble telescope has a relatively large objective lens that provides appropriate light to enter the telescope to get a good image. Because of the nature of astronomical observation, which requires sufficient light intensity emanating from celestial objects (galaxies, stars, planets, etc.). The Hubble telescope is classified as type of the Cassegrain reflecting telescopes, which gives it the advantage of eliminating chromat

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Conference Proceedings Of The Society For Experimental Mechanics Series
A comparative study of mode decomposition to relate next-ERA, PCA, and ICA modes
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This paper discusses a comparative study to relate parametric and non-parametric mode decomposition algorithms for response-only data. Three popular mode decomposition algorithms are included in this study: the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm with the Natural Excitation Technique (NExT-ERA) for the parametric algorithm, as well as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for the non-parametric algorithms. A comprehensive parametric study is provided for (i) different response types, (ii) excitation types, (iii) system damping, and (iv) sensor spatial resolution to compare the mode shapes and modal coordinates of using a 10-DOF building model. The mode decomposition results are also compared using

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