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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Geology And Hydrogeology
Assessing Pullout Resistance of Earth Reinforced Embankment Model
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- The sandy soil with high gypsum content (usually referred to as gypseous soil) covers vast area in south, east, middle and west regions of Iraq, such soil possess a type of cohesive forces when attached with optimum amount of water, then compacted and allowed to cure, but losses its strength when flooded with water again. Much work on earth reinforcement was published which concentrate on the gain in bearing capacity in the reinforced layer using different types of cohesive or cohesion less soil and various types of reinforcement such as plastic, metal, grids, and synthetic textile. Little attention was paid to there enforce gypseous soil. The objective of this work is to study the interaction between such soil and reinforcement strips

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 07 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Interdisciplinary Mathematics
Discrete an SIS model with immigrants and treatment
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In this paper, a discrete SIS epidemic model with immigrant and treatment effects is proposed. Stability analysis of the endemic equilibria and disease-free is presented. Numerical simulations are conformed the theoretical results, and it is illustrated how the immigrants, as well as treatment effects, change current model behavior

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2024
Journal Name
Asee Annual Conference And Exposition
Undergraduate Research Impact on Students' Retention and Academic Development Based on Their Study Field and the Mentoring Approach
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The impact of undergraduate research experiences on students' academic development and retention in STEM fields is significant. Students' success in STEM fields is based on developing strong research and critical thinking skills that make it essential for students to engage in research activities throughout their academic programs. This work evaluates the effectiveness of undergraduate research experiences with respect to its influence on student retention and academic development. The cases presented are based on years of experience implementing undergraduate research programs in various STEM fields at Colorado State University Pueblo (CSU Pueblo) funded by HSI STEM Grants. The study seeks to establish a correlation between students' reten

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Estimated Outlet Temperatures in Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchanger Using Artificial Neural Network Approach Based on Practical Data
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The objective of this study is to apply Artificial Neural Network for heat transfer analysis of shell-and-tube heat exchangers widely used in power plants and refineries. Practical data was obtained by using industrial heat exchanger operating in power generation department of Dura refinery. The commonly used Back Propagation (BP) algorithm was used to train and test networks by divided the data to three samples (training, validation and testing data) to give more approach data with actual case. Inputs of the neural network include inlet water temperature, inlet air temperature and mass flow rate of air. Two outputs (exit water temperature to cooling tower and exit air temperature to second stage of air compressor) were taken in ANN.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 29 2024
Journal Name
The Iraqi Geological Journal
Data Driven Approach for Predicting Pore Pressure of Oil and Gas Wells, Case Study of Iraq Southern Oilfields
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Precise forecasting of pore pressures is crucial for efficiently planning and drilling oil and gas wells. It reduces expenses and saves time while preventing drilling complications. Since direct measurement of pore pressure in wellbores is costly and time-intensive, the ability to estimate it using empirical or machine learning models is beneficial. The present study aims to predict pore pressure using artificial neural network. The building and testing of artificial neural network are based on the data from five oil fields and several formations. The artificial neural network model is built using a measured dataset consisting of 77 data points of Pore pressure obtained from the modular formation dynamics tester. The input variables

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 13 2021
Journal Name
Neural Computing And Applications
Integration of extreme gradient boosting feature selection approach with machine learning models: application of weather relative humidity prediction
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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The research is based on a thesis not discussed: Test the strategy of the General Organization based on the model Wichler and Bakov A case study at the Iraqi Ministry of Interior
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The study aimed at identifying the strategic gaps in the actual reality of the management of public organizations investigated to determine the strategy used based on the study model. The study relied on the variable of the general organization strategy in its dimensions (the general organization strategy, the organization's political strategy and the defense strategy of the organization) The sample of the study was (General Directorate of Traffic, Civil Status Directorate and Civil Defense Directorate), formations affiliated to the Ministry of the Interior, for the importance of the activity carried out by these public organizations by providing them In order to translate the answers into a quantitative expression in the analysi

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 14 2022
Journal Name
Egyptian Journal Of Medical Human Genetics
A single-nucleotide polymorphism of IL12A gene (rs582537 A/C/G) and susceptibility to chronic hepatitis B virus infection among Iraqi patients
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A case–control study (80 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus [HBV] infection and 96 controls) was performed to evaluate the association of an IL12A gene variant (rs582537 A/C/G) with HBV infection. Allele G showed a signifcantly lower frequency in patients compared to controls (31.2 vs. 46.9%; probability [p]=0.009; corrected p [pc]=0.027) and was associated with a lower risk of HBV infection (odds ratio [OR]=0.49; 95% confdence interval [CI]=0.29–0.83). A similar lower risk was associated with genotypes CG (17.5 vs. 29.2; OR=0.25; 95% CI=0.08–0.81; p=0.02) and GG (10.0 vs. 16.7; OR=0.25; 95% CI=0.07–0.91; p=0.036), but the pc value was not signifcant (0.12 and 0.126, respec‑ tively). Serum IL35 levels showed signifcant difere

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Romantic Nightingale between Coleridge’s Divergence and Keats’ Adherence: A comparative Study between Coleridge’s ‘The Nightingale’ and Keats’ ‘Ode to a Nightingale’
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‘Ode to a Nightingale’(1819) is a typical poem of a Romantic poet like John Keats, but
‘The Nightingale’(1798) is an uncharacteristic poem of a Romantic poet like Coleridge.
The paper proposes a comparison between Coleridge’s ‘The Nightingale’ and Keats’
‘Ode to a Nightingale’.Coleridge’s poem diverges from the Romantic norm; it carries some
characteristics new to Romantic poetry like the realistic and objective portrayals of nature and
the nightingale, while Keats’ poem adhere to the characteristics of Romantic poetry; it
portrays nature and the nightingale subjectively and unrealistically. Coleridge’s poem is very
much influenced by the scientific approaches to environment, and natural his

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2024
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Implementation of a control and monitoring system for a cathodic protection cell to mitigate localized corrosion in fixed and mobile steel structures
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The current study introduces a novel technique to handle electrochemical localized corrosion in certain limited regions rather than applying comprehensive cathodic protection (CP) treatment. An impressed current cathodic protection cell (ICCPC) was fabricated and firmly installed on the middle of a steel structure surface to deter localized corrosion in fixed or mobile steel structures. The designed ICCPC comprises three essential parts: an anode, a cathode, and an artificial electrolyte. The latter was developed to mimic the function of the natural electrolyte in CP. A proportional-integrated-derivative (PID) controller was designed to stabilize this potential below the ICCPC at a cathodic potential of −850 mV, which is crucial for prote

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