The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The comedian scenes which Shakespeare has entered in some of his tragedies(Hamlet, King Lear, and Macbeth), constantly the wrath of conservative critics and theorists of Western Drama, as big violation to Aristotle’s rules of tragedy that is forbidden to insert comedian scene in tragedy. Chapter one deals with the research problem, and its significance, purpose,Boarders and the definition of Comic Relieve. Chapter two comprises the theoretical framework which has displayed Arist-Otle’s conception about the imitation way of heroes characters between tragedy and comedy, the different function of catharsis in each one. Then the research has exposed the economical and theatrical activities in London during Elizabethan age which was looke
... Show MoreThe current paper proposes a new estimator for the linear regression model parameters under Big Data circumstances. From the diversity of Big Data variables comes many challenges that can be interesting to the researchers who try their best to find new and novel methods to estimate the parameters of linear regression model. Data has been collected by Central Statistical Organization IRAQ, and the child labor in Iraq has been chosen as data. Child labor is the most vital phenomena that both society and education are suffering from and it affects the future of our next generation. Two methods have been selected to estimate the parameter
... Show MoreThis paper assesses the impact of changes and fluctuations in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq. Employing the research constructs an Error Correction Model (ECM) using monthly time series data from 2010 to 2015. The analysis begins with the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the stationarity of the time series and the Engle and Granger cointegration test to examine the existence of a long-term relationship. Nonparametric regression functions are estimated using two methods: Smoothing Spline and M-smoothing. The results indicate that the M-smoothing approach is the most effective, achieving the shortest adjustment period and the highest adjustment ratio for short-term disturbances, thereby facilitating a return
... Show MoreThis study is concerned with making comparison in using different geostatistical methods for porosity distribution of upper shale member - Zubair formation in Luhais oil field which was chosen to study.
Kriging, Gaussian random function simulation and sequential Gaussian simulation geostatistical methods were adopted in this study. After preparing all needed data which are contour map, well heads of 12 wells, well tops and porosity from CPI log. Petrel software 2009 was used for porosity distribution of mentioned formation in methods that are showed above. Comparisons were made among these three methods in order to choose the best one, the comparing cri
شهدت العالم منذ نهايات القرن الماضي وبدايات القرن الواحد والعشرين تطورات دراماتيكية على صعيد الادبيات التنموية ، اذ تحولت التنمية من المفهوم التقليدي الذي اهتم بالنمو الاقتصادي الى رؤية جديدة هي رؤية التنمية البشرية ومن ثم الى التنمية المستدامة التي اعطت للتنمية البعد الانساني وجعلت من مشكلات واحتياجات البشر منطلق لها لتحويل الفرد والمجتمع الى مرحلة جديدة تضمن له العيش الكريم وتحقق معه
... Show MoreContemporary developments in various sciences and the impact of technological changes require an integrated vision of the activities and work of the organization in Iraq in light of the high costs of products and their low quality compared to imported products of high quality and low cost, and the need to use modern cost techniques based on a clear and specific philosophy that contributes to increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of management In the business environment and how it can contribute to reducing product costs and being environmentally friendly at the same time, it is no secret that the main goal of most organizations is to maximize profitability and reduce costs to the minimum, but this matter is not achieved autom
... Show MoreThe research discusses the obstacles that faced the Iraqi strategic performance in achieving sustainable development after the election of the first Iraqi government in 2005 and the most important strategies to overcome these obstacles.
تهدف الدراسة إلى استعراض ظهور كراسي اليونسكو في الجامعات العراقية والأنشطة التي تم تنفيذها لتحقيق أهداف التنمية المستدامة، حيث تم إنشاء كل كرسي لتحقيق أحد هذه الأهداف التي تركت أثرها على بعض القطاعات التعليمية والاجتماعية ، وبالتالي تنبع أهمية الدراسة من الحاجة إلى الإشارة إلى إنشاء كراسي اليونسكو في الجامعات العراقية والأنشطة التي عززت إنشائها ونشاطها ومبادراتها المحلية والدولية, وكذلك تحديد ما حقق
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