Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

Crime is one of the most severe challenges facing States, and strives to find preventive measures, reduce its seriousness, and prevent them; due to developments, crimes have increased, and emerging new patterns of crimes, there is an urgent need to prevent crimes and reduce their effects. Modernizing its punitive system and diverting it to correctional rehabilitative justice to redress the prejudice caused by the crime and rehabilitate the convicted person by using alternative measures to short-term imprisonment. This research emphasizes alternative sanctions' value to minimizing short-term imprisonment penalties and their impact on societal security through several goals like, the negative consequences, justifications, and alternatives

The educational service one of activities which have great effect in the city life and it's community which considered as an affective instrument for the social and civilized construction and its role in the development of culture and determining the general features of the society. Therefore planning for educational service is considered as a necessary for economical, social and cultural conditions in the Arab community lives in general and the Iraqi community in special. The educational service buildings and distribution forms an insurmountable obstacle in the urban areas. So the balance distribution in Baghdad presents an indication to ensure the equality of educational opportunities besides the correlation of these institutes with th

The electoral mechanism is remarkably clear, a political tool for institutional construction, directing political life, forming the political scene, and forming the partisan scene. This process was through the design of electoral laws, as elections in Tunisian political history represented the indicator of its slow and accelerated transformations, so The elections in Tunisia usually coincide with important political stages, accompanied by legislative or constitutional amendments in general, Islamic or secular forces have played a fundamental role in promoting the democratic experience and the principle of the peaceful transfer of power. This led to the formation of a national consensus that would help the country not enter into political

Language is an important means through which one can construct one's social world. Accordingly, the way we view ourselves and the world is basically formed by language use whereby identities, relations, and values are constructed and maintained. Most discourse analysts consider narrative not only the locus of construction and enactment of identity, but also a distinguished genre for its analysis.The present study is concerned with how identity can poetically be informed, hence exploring the way black poets use language when reflecting their identity and culture. The poem, right on: white america by the black American poetess Sonia Sanchez, is chosen to be analyzed based on Simpson's stylistic model (2004). In this model, the ana

Music and singing are always associated with the movement of society and the emergence of cultural and artistic activities other.
The social and political transformations of the 1930s helped to disseminate the study Music and music in the city of Baghdad and across Iraq This is the beginning of a new era of musical art alongside other arts.
While achieving musical arts A new step was advanced by publishing a technical study among the younger generation they were looking for to contribute to the musical field On the other hand, the city of Baghdad during the period of research many musical and musical performances Egyptian teams have provided many artistic activities and events which have had a significant impact on the development

Experts of Psychology and education emphasized that childhood is one of the most important stages in the formation of human personality, and the most influential in his public life, especially the stage in which he lives within his family, which must provide him with the requirements of healthy growth of physical, emotional, moral and social. Emotional-social connection of the child to his family, is especially important in determining the characteristics of his social character, in accordance with the norms and values ​​prevailing in society. This requires the child to be cared for and cared for, and to deal with him in a healthy social manner. So as to achieve positive growth and harmony in the process of social control in internal

This research attempted to take advantage of modern techniques in the study of the superstructural phonetic features of spoken text in language using phonetic programs to achieve more accurate and objective results, far from being limited to self-perception and personal judgment, which varies from person to person.
    It should be noted that these phonological features (Nabr, waqf, toning) are performance controls that determine the fate of the meaning of the word or sentence, but in the modern era has received little attention and attention, and that little attention to some of them came to study issues related to the composition or style Therefore, we recommend that more attention should be given to the study of

The research aims to identify the educational values prevailing in the small kinetic games for the children of Riyadh, and to categorize the educational values of the kinetic games small children Riyadh. The research analyzed the content of a number of small kinetic games that included studied physical education at the two pre-kindergarten and stipulated by the Platform for kindergartens, which is being applied. The content analysis was used by analysts agreement with themselves over time (21) days. The agreement between the external researcher and analyst. The researcher used the Cooper to extract equation lab agreement between the researcher and the outside analyst, has reached agreement on determining factor idea and label values (0.8

The study aimed to prepare quick response codes to learn some of the technical skills of the second graders in the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences. The experimental method was used in the design of the experimental and control experimental and control groups. The research sample was represented by second-graders in the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences / University of Baghdad, and by lot, the second division (a) was chosen to represent the experimental group that applied the inverse method using the QR code, and the second division (g) to represent the control group and applied the traditional method. (10) Students per group. After the tribal tests, his main experiment was carried out for 10 weeks with one