The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract

The current research aims to testing the impact of leadership styles (autocratic, democratic) in crises management (Making decision response, communications and information flows, Mobilization of resources) through strategic planning (Mission, objectives, and environmental analysis, and strategic choice) among managers of the Iraqi Ministry of electricity. Questionnaire has been adopted as a tool in data and information relating to research, as it had prepared on the basis of number of scales and finished using the included Likert quintet, which  has been subjected to standards of validity and reliability and distributed to a sample consisting of (96) managers at the three departments of Min

The art of theater penetrated various scientific and human fields, as well as touching the facts and events surrounding it, and scientific innovations had a wide field, so it adopted feedback in interactive theater performances, especially the theater of the oppressed. Then came the indicators that resulted from the theoretical framework for the formation of the tool by which the research sample is analyzed, and then the chapter concluded with previous studies. As for the third chapter, it involved the research procedures, and through the research tool and the research method, and by selecting the intentional sample, the sample represented by a play (the story of Shahrour) was analyzed. As for the fourth chapter, it included the results

This research for university students dialectic unemployment and work, focusing on
serious discussion, accurate and provide opinions between specialists and those interested in
the university youth issues and identify them in the light of the dialectical relationship
between unemployment and work for the purpose interpreted accurate and access to reality
without coverage and linked to the movement of the changing society now and the situation
that is happening in Iraq, where the loss of the safety and the weakness of the determinants of
economic well-being and the decline of public and social health and the unemployment rate
security in the heart of - programs - and blocs parties that Tgtill public opinion in any

Eat this research study features Technical Ceramics Islamic and Chinese The study of four chapters , such as the first chapter the general framework for research and containing the problem that put the following question: Mamdy effect features art on porcelain Islamic and Chinese ) , and whether there are dimensions of the aesthetic , intellectual and ideological in porcelain Islamic and Chinese with lies the importance of research in the promise of a qualitative study and add a scientific theme features art in porcelain Islamic and China , and the objectives of this study One was in the detection of features technical Ceramics Islamic and Chinese study examined the length of time the ninth century AD , and the tenth century AD , and in

the structrual and mechanical properties of thin Ni films of different thicknesses deposited on coring glass substrate using lonbeam sputtering(IBS) technique under vacuum torr have been studied the TEM and electron

War was and remains one of the main instruments for the practice of international relations, and has always been a major focus of the study of international relations. War, such as diplomacy, propaganda, etc., is an instrument of national politics. States have used wars to achieve their goals and aspirations and achieve their national interests. War and peace issues are essential to understanding international relations. They are questions that involve the problem of survival.

Today the term "war" is used in many different ways. We talk about Cold War, Hot War, Limited War, Total War, Conventional War, Unconventional War, Civil War, Gang War, Preventive War etc. However, the war continued to exist, and took various forms.

Praise be to Allah, Lord of the Worlds, and peace and blessings be upon our master Muhammad and his good and pure family. At the end of this research, we summarize some of the most important findings of our research, namely:
Raising a child properly from childhood leads to integrity in the life of the individual society, and if the young raised bad education, this education will affect itself and society negatively, so on parents and government institutions in any country to take care of children, and Islamic countries Specifically to give the child great attention; he is raised on the Koran and watered from its fountains, and armed with a weapon of morality from a young age, and to understand the biography of Mustafa (peace be upon h

This paper is an attempt to demonstrate the syntactic behavior of -ly adverbs and -ly adjectives. It mainly deals with -ly as an inflectional suffix that forms adverbs and adjectives It is hypothesized that there are differences between adjective-forming –ly and adverb-forming –ly.The researcher first made general and specific observations about the morphological processes of -ly adverbs and -ly adjectives. Since the study focuses on a linguistic phenomenon, its data is a set of -ly adverbs and -ly adjectives used as examples to support the hypothesis. The importance of studying the syntactic behavior of -ly stems from the fact that thousands of English adjectives and adverbs are created by adding the suffix "-ly" to their roots

However, the effects of these ideas are still evident
Think of those who follow the footsteps of Muslim scholars and thinkers.
Intellectual source of Gnostic Gnar
And in dealing with issues of Islamic thought
Annalisa intersecting trends of thought, Minya who melts in Masarya and supported him and believes in Bo and extremist Vue,
 Lea, trying to throw it with a few times, looks at Elya look
There are those who stand in the opposite position
There are those who stand in a selective compromise, but this school of thought remains
 G - the features of Islamic thought that believes in the mind and Imoto in the defense of
An intellectual station and generalized bar
Creed. In his study, the researcher wi