Preferred Language
Articles
/
bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
...Show More Authors

The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

Scopus Clarivate Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
A multivariate Bayesian model using Gibbs sampler with real data application
...Show More Authors

In many scientific fields, Bayesian models are commonly used in recent research. This research presents a new Bayesian model for estimating parameters and forecasting using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Posterior distributions are generated using the inverse gamma distribution and the multivariate normal distribution as prior distributions. The new method was used to investigate and summaries Bayesian statistics' posterior distribution. The theory and derivation of the posterior distribution are explained in detail in this paper. The proposed approach is applied to three simulation datasets of 100, 300, and 500 sample sizes. Also, the procedure was extended to the real dataset called the rock intensity dataset. The actual dataset is collecte

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Feb 10 2016
Journal Name
ألمؤتمر الدولي العلمي الخامس للاحصائيين العرب/ القاهرة
Proposition of Modified Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Additive Model by using Simulation
...Show More Authors

Often phenomena suffer from disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. Thus emerged the need to include an estimation method implicit rating of these experimental units using the method of discrimination or create blocks for each item of these experimental units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more homogeneous. Because of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of sciences it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science genetic algorithm or ant colo

... Show More
Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choosing the best method for estimating the survival function of inverse Gompertz distribution by using Integral mean squares error (IMSE)
...Show More Authors

In this research , we study the inverse Gompertz distribution (IG) and estimate the  survival function of the distribution , and the survival function was evaluated using three methods (the Maximum likelihood, least squares, and percentiles estimators) and choosing the best method estimation ,as it was found that the best method for estimating the survival function is the squares-least method because it has the lowest IMSE and for all sample sizes

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Construction Materials
Molasses-Modified Mortars: A Sustainable Approach to Improve Cement Mortar Performance
...Show More Authors

The utilization of sugarcane molasses (SCM), a byproduct of sugar refining, offers a promising bio-based alternative to conventional chemical admixtures in cementitious systems. This study investigates the effects of SCM at five dosage levels, 0.25%, 0.50%, 0.75%, 1.00%, and 1.25% by weight of cement, on cement mortar performance across fresh, mechanical, thermal, durability, and density criteria. A comprehensive experimental methodology was employed, including flow table testing, compressive strength (7, 14, and 28 days) and flexural strength measurements, embedded thermal sensors for real-time hydration monitoring, water absorption and chloride ion penetration tests, as well as 28-day density determination. Results revealed clear

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modified Mathematical Model of Tumor Treatment by Radiotherapy
...Show More Authors

In this research, a mathematical model of tumor treatment by radiotherapy is studied and a new modification for the model is proposed as well as introducing the check for the suggested modification. Also the stability of the modified model is analyzed in the last section.

View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (5)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jan 14 2021
Journal Name
مكتب نور الحسن للنشر والتوزيع
Practical Education and Field Application: A Methodological Vision"
...Show More Authors

Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The importance of the application of the Value Added Tax system within the tax reform strategy in Iraq: model proposal
...Show More Authors

One of the globalization results is (VAT) , so it is important to consider its        results and impact on the tax system.    

     The Iraqi economy having wittnisd an acute transition period , still in need for a better care in aim to back it, especialy from the tax system.

The research is concerned with the (VAT) and its details –And for five chapters all the problomes connect are displayed .But yet the new system does not comply with the modern development and this is one of the defects of (VAT) in Iraq.

The history of (VAT)was also studied mentiorned and studied.

     As a conclusion (VAT) is one of the m

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Application of the excess cash margin model (ECM) to detect the Earning Management in the banking sector: Comparative study between commercial and Islamic banks
...Show More Authors

 

The research draws its importance from identifying the methods of profit management in misleading the financial statements, which in turn is reflected in the decisions of the authorities that relied on these reports, and then the models that help in detecting those methods used by the auditors. Risks. The index (margin of excess cash) was used to detect profit management practices on a group of banks listed in the Iraqi market for securities and the number of (23) banks, including (12) commercial bank and (11) Islamic bank and the results were compared to commercial banks with Islamic banks.((The research started from the hypothesis that the use of the (excess cash margin) model in the banking sector reveals the management

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Form a proposal to audit the mutual operations with related parties program in accordance with international standards: Proposal pattern
...Show More Authors

The relationships between the related parties constitute a normal feature of trading and business processes. Entities may perform parts of their activities through subsidiary entities, joint ventures and associate entities. In these cases, the entity has the ability to influence the financial and operating policies of the investee through control, joint control or significant influence,  So could affect established knowledge of transactions and balances outstanding, including commitments, and relationships with related to the evaluation of its operations by users of financial statements, including the risks and opportunities facing the entity assess the parties. So research has gained importance of the importance of the availability

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF