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A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
Revue Académique De La Recherche Juridique
Humanizing Legal Rules (The Winter Truce in France as a Model)
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Since the law is the tool for implementing the state’s public policies, it is natural that its provisions (or at least some of them) seek to preserve human dignity as the source on which all rights and freedoms are based. One of the examples of humanizing the provisions of the law in France is what is known as the winter truce. What is this truce, what are the justifications for granting it, what is its historical origin, how did the legislative treatment of it develop, what are the similarities and differences between it and other legal periods included in French law, what is the scope of its application, and what are the effects resulting from it. These questions and others are what we will try to answer through this research.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 22 2026
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات البصرة
Visual pollution in Al-Dora municipality (Abu Dasher as a model)
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Visual pollution is one of the major obstacles that affect the process of urban development. This study addressed one of the environmental pollutants that humans feel and live with and has become part of their daily lives. In 2003, this research aims to identify the manifestations of visual pollution and its causes and effective solutions to reduce them. for the city dwellers. One of the most common causes of visual pollution in the city of Al-Dura (Abu Dashir) is the spread of waste and garbage due to the lack of environmental awareness, and the abundance of billboards and the difference in the colors of building covers and their design, which means the marginalization of the additional environmental aspect. for the course city as well as

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Structures
Accelerating reliability analysis of deteriorated simply supported concrete beam with a newly developed approach: MCS, FORM and ANN
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Reliability analysis methods are used to evaluate the safety of reinforced concrete structures by evaluating the limit state function 𝑔(𝑋𝑖). For implicit limit state function and nonlinear analysis , an advanced reliability analysis methods are needed. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used in this case however, as the number of input variables increases, the time required for MCS also increases, making it a time consuming method especially for complex problems with implicit performance functions. In such cases, MCS-based FORM (First Order Reliability Method) and Artificial Neural Network-based FORM (ANN FORM) have been proposed as alternatives. However, it is important to note that both MCS-FORM and ANN-FORM can also be time-con

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2025
Journal Name
Acta Logistica
A business continuity-based framework for risk management in smart supply chains: a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach
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The aim of this study is to develop a novel framework for managing risks in smart supply chains by enhancing business continuity and resilience against potential disruptions. This research addresses the growing uncertainty in supply chain environments, driven by both natural phenomena-such as pandemics and earthquakes—and human-induced events, including wars, political upheavals, and societal transformations. Recognizing that traditional risk management approaches are insufficient in such dynamic contexts, the study proposes an adaptive framework that integrates proactive and remedial measures for effective risk mitigation. A fuzzy risk matrix is employed to assess and analyze uncertainties, facilitating the identification of disr

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Construction of a National Identification in the Novel of N. Scott Momaday House Made of Dawn
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The United States government allowed Native Americans to abandon their reservations in the 1950s and 1960s. The historical, social, and cultural backgrounds shaped the forms and themes of works by American Indian writers who urged people to refuse their culture's sense of shame. Moreover, their behavior corresponded with the restoration of individuals to their rituals after disappointment, loss of sense of life, and mental illness performed from the influence of mainstream American society. Among these writers, N. Scott Momaday and Leslie Marmon Silko participate in similar interest in portraying characters caught between indigenous beliefs and white mainstream standards.  

      The construction of

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The role of psychological content in building the fiction film an analytical study of a selected sample
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 Psychological aspects are a major influence and motivation factor in many cinematic and television works such as television series. There are many films that dealt with psychological issues through the personality affected by psychological projections and complexes that lead towards abnormal behavior and actions in most cases, so the researchers chose the title and the research problem was raised through the following question: What is the mechanism that fulfills a psychological role in the narrative film? The objectives of the research were to reveal the mechanism used to instill psychological contents in the feature film? As for the limits of the research, it was an intentional sample, and the researchers adopted the descriptive anal

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Ifip Advances In Information And Communication Technology
Rapid Thrombogenesis Prediction in Covid-19 Patients Using Machine Learning
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Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being utilized in the medical field to manage and diagnose diseases, leading to improved patient treatment and disease management. Several recent studies have found that Covid-19 patients have a higher incidence of blood clots, and understanding the pathological pathways that lead to blood clot formation (thrombogenesis) is critical. Current methods of reporting thrombogenesis-related fluid dynamic metrics for patient-specific anatomies are based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, which can take weeks to months for a single patient. In this paper, we propose a ML-based method for rapid thrombogenesis prediction in the carotid artery of Covid-19 patients. Our proposed system aims

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Judicial Tools in Developing Civil Law Rules – France as a Model
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Despite the principle of separation of powers brought by the French Revolution, which entrusted the task of drafting legislation and its amendment to the legislative authority and the task of settling disputes and settling them in the judiciary. However, since that date, the French judiciary has played a major role in the development of French civil law (In spite of all the economic and social developments that have taken place in French society throughout these years) since its promulgation until February of 2016, the date of the Legislative Decree No. 131 of the year 2016 A modification is the largest in the history of the French Civil Code (which was the judicial precedents in which a significant impact), was assisted by the French judic

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Design contexts in interior space design (sewing workshops as a model)
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The topic of context is one of the important topics, which was mentioned as a concept in several fields and different fields, and there were many points of view that defined that concept.
He specified the title of the research (design contexts in the design of the interior space), as the research sought to identify the concept of context in the interior design of the spaces of sewing workshops. The research was divided into four chapters:
The first chapter, which consists of the methodological framework, the problem of research and the need for it, the importance of research, the goal and limits of research for sewing workshops for vocational schools from (2020-2021).
The second chapter: consists of previous studies and the theo

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 20 2018
Journal Name
Day 2 Wed, March 21, 2018
Numerical Approach for the Prediction of Formation and Hydraulic Fracture Properties Considering Elliptical Flow Regime in Tight Gas Reservoirs
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Abstract<p>As tight gas reservoirs (TGRs) become more significant to the future of the gas industry, investigation into the best methods for the evaluation of field performance is critical. While hydraulic fractured well in TRGs are proven to be most viable options for economic recovery of gas, the interpretation of pressure transient or well test data from hydraulic fractured well in TGRs for the accurate estimation of important reservoirs and fracture properties (e.g. fracture length, fracture conductivity, skin and reservoir permeability) is rather very complex and difficult because of the existence of multiple flow profiles/regimes. The flow regimes are complex in TGRs due to the large hydraulic fractures n</p> ... Show More
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