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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 08 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Computational Design And Engineering
Twisted-fin parametric study to enhance the solidification performance of phase-change material in a shell-and-tube latent heat thermal energy storage system
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Abstract<p>Phase change material (PCM) is considered as one of the most effective thermal energy storage (TES) systems to balance energy supply and demand. A key challenge in designing efficient PCM-based TES systems lies in the enhancement of heat transmission during phase transition. This study numerically examines the privilege of employing twisted-fin arrays inside a shell-and-tube latent heat storage unit to improve the solidification performance. The presence of twisted fins contributes to the dominating role of heat conduction by their curved shapes, which restricts the role of natural convection but largely aids the overall heat-transfer process during solidification. The heat-discharge </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Simultaneous Determination of Binary Mixture of Estradiol and Progesterone Using Different Spectrophotometric Methods
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Four rapid, accurate and very simple derivative spectrophotometric techniques were developed for the quantitative determination of binary mixtures of estradiol (E2) and progesterone (PRG) formulated as a capsule. Method I is the first derivative zero-crossing technique, derivative amplitudes were detected at the zero-crossing wavelength of 239.27 and 292.51 nm for the quantification of estradiol and 249.19 nm for Progesterone. Method II is ratio subtraction, progesterone was determined at λmax 240 nm after subtraction of interference exerted by estradiol. Method III is modified amplitude subtraction, which was established using derivative spectroscopy and mathematical manipulations. Method IIII is the absorbance ratio technique, absorba

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Contemporary experimental currents and its impact on the structure of the contemporary Iraqi theatrical text "The epic theater as a model": هيثم حمزة سلمان الحمداني
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  In this research study, I tried to trace the epic effect to learn how it was understood and how it was used. Following the descriptive and analytical approach in the research, the first chapter dealt with a presentation of the methodological framework of the problem, the goal, the limits of the research, the importance and the need for it and the definition of terms, as well as the theoretical framework which consisted of two topics, including the impact of the epic theater on the world theater and the second the effect of the epic theater on the Arab theater, This came by tracing the epic impact on the world stage of the Greeks, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and the Arab theater of the twentieth century.
As for the second

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflection Leader-Member Exchange In Organizational Commitment A Field research in Ministry of Iraqi Defense
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Abstract

The researcher seeks, through different aspects of the search, to reach a set of objective concerning in content creation a clear vision about conceptual and practical dimension of relation and effects between (Leader-Member Exchange, and Organizational Commitment) to construct a framework of a pragmatic model as a solution to research problem and it questions. The theoretical problem is derived basically from the scarcity of Arab studies and researches that deal by study and analyses for such important of The two variables blend. The practical problem depends in deriving from reality of every day work in the Iraqi ministry of defense.

On this basis, a formula of research problem for pur

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Building 1D Mechanical Earth Model for Zubair Oilfield in Iraq
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Many problems were encountered during the drilling operations in Zubair oilfield. Stuckpipe, wellbore instability, breakouts and washouts, which increased the critical limits problems, were observed in many wells in this field, therefore an extra non-productive time added to the total drilling time, which will lead to an extra cost spent. A 1D Mechanical Earth Model (1D MEM) was built to suggest many solutions to such types of problems. An overpressured zone is noticed and an alternative mud weigh window is predicted depending on the results of the 1D MEM. Results of this study are diagnosed and wellbore instability problems are predicted in an efficient way using the 1D MEM. Suitable alternative solutions are presented

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Tree regression (TR), and Negative binomial regression (NBR) by Using Simulation.
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            In this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Building Electoral Posters An Analytical Study of the Electoral Campaign's Posters of the Iraqi Representative Council in 2014
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The electoral poster is the most important means and methods of the electoral campaign because of its advantages and capabilities if it is organized properly. It is an intensive propaganda message with psychological figures and semiotic connotations belonging to sub-culture. Its construction depends on a group of elements (logo, photo symbols, color and picture) and their consistency is varying from one to another. Posters must be committed the determinants of attraction, excitement, simplicity and clarity. They are working according to the following base: (fixed audience X moved recipients) and walking towards (moving X moving) due to the technical development of optical screens. These developments require double the force of the impact

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effects of Using Educational Moodle Platform to Develop Instructors’ Skills in Designing Electronic Tests at Dhofar University
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With the premise that effective use of online instructional practices is of vital importance in classrooms, the current study aimed to examine the effects of using Moodle applications to develop instructors’ skills in designing electronic tests at Dhofar University. The sample of this study consisted of (25) instructors participated in the experimental group. The researchers implemented a quasi-experimental design with one group pre- and post-test; in addition, an observation card was implemented to measure the target skills related to test design. The research instruments were subjected to validity and reliability measures to ensure valid and reliable data and results. The study results showed that those instructors who participated i

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of empowerment strategies on the characteristics of work enrichment An exploratory research to the views of a sample of the leaders of the Ministry of Oil in Iraq
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The study aimed to investigate the relationship between empowerment strategies and their impact on the success of enrichment work, it included the dimensions of empowerment strategies (power, knowledge, information, rewards), The dimensions of Job enrichment are (Skill variety, Task identity, Task significance, Autonomy, Feedback). The study was conducted at the headquarters of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad and was based on a sample of the leadership of the ministry of managers consisting of 215 people. The data were collected using the questionnaire method based on scientific standards adopted in previous st

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Biochemical & Cellular Archives
8-HYDROXY-2-DEOXY GUANOSINE IS A NOVEL NEW BIOCHEMICAL MARKER FOR PATIENTS WITH MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS AND CORRELATION WITH PARAOXANASE-1 AND MDA
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Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, inflammatory demyelinating disease of central nervous system with complex etiopathogenesis that impacts young adults (Lee et al., 2015), and MS impacts younger and middle aged character and leads to a range of disabilities that can alter their daily routines (Yara et al, 2010). Although, the exact cause of MS is still undetermined, the disease is mediated by adaptive immunity through the infiltration of T cells into the central nervous system (Bjelobaba et al, 2017). MS causes the Focal neurological symptomsand biochemical changes in the molecular level and the variation of neural cells such as loss or alteration of sensation, motor function, visible signs such as blurred vision or transient blindness,

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