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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Spectral fluctuations in <sup>24</sup>Mg nucleus using the framework of the nuclear shell model
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Abstract<p>Random matrix theory is used to study the chaotic properties in nuclear energy spectrum of the <sup>24</sup>Mg nucleus. The excitation energies (which are the main object of this study) are obtained via performing shell model calculations using the OXBASH computer code together with an effective interaction of Wildenthal (W) in the isospin formalism. The <sup>24</sup>Mg nucleus is assumed to have an inert <sup>16</sup>O core with 8 nucleons (4protons and 4neutrons) move in the 1d<sub>5/2</sub>, 2s<sub>1/2</sub> and 1d<sub>3/2</sub> orbitals. The spectral fluctuations are studied by two statistical measures: the nearest neighb</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between the Methods Estimate Nonparametric and Semiparametric Transfer Function Model in Time Series Using Simulation
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Societal awareness and its role in building the Arab state: an intellectual vision:
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It is no secret to everyone that the Arab individual suffers from poor self-awareness and political awareness, which made the state and the importance of its existence and preserving its institutions not among his interests, which made researchers wonder about the possibility of strengthening it and the extent of its impact on the future of building the contemporary Arab state, so the study attempted Addressing the issue of community awareness and its impact on building the state through a clear intellectual vision that blended what is social and political to define the concept of community awareness and highlight its importance and role as a basic pillar in shaping and building modern Arab countries. In the Arab world and ways to enhanc

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposing Robust IRWs Technique to Estimate Segmented Regression Model for the Bed load Transport of Tigris River with Change Point of Water Discharge Amount at Baghdad City
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Segmented regression consists of several sections separated by different points of membership, showing the heterogeneity arising from the process of separating the segments within the research sample. This research is concerned with estimating the location of the change point between segments and estimating model parameters, and proposing a robust estimation method and compare it with some other methods that used in the segmented regression. One of the traditional methods (Muggeo method) has been used to find the maximum likelihood estimator in an iterative approach for the model and the change point as well. Moreover, a robust estimation method (IRW method) has used which depends on the use of the robust M-estimator technique in

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 17 2013
Journal Name
American Journal Of Pharmacological Sciences
Pentoxifylline as Adjuvant Therapy to Etanercept in Patients with Moderately to Highly Active Rheumatoid Arthritis
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EXPOSURE TO TELEVISION PROMOTION OF PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THEM / FIELD RESEARCH FOR A SAMPLE OF THE AUDIENCE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD: EXPOSURE TO TELEVISION PROMOTION OF PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS AND TRENDS TOWARDS THEM / FIELD RESEARCH FOR A SAMPLE OF THE AUDIENCE IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD
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A field study was conducted on a sample of the public in Baghdad to study the audience's exposure to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products and their trends in order to determine the rate of exposure of the public to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products according to the theory of uses and rumors and to determine the public's attitudes towards television promotion of pharmaceutical products. A survey of (25) a questions was distributed to a sample of the audience of 150 people. The statistical program SPSS was used to unload the data and for the calculation of frequencies and percentages and correlation coefficients. The research reached several results, Most importantly, the television promotion is well receiv

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 20 2018
Journal Name
Offshore Technology Conference Asia
Prediction of Hydrate Phase Equilibrium Conditions for Different Gas Mixtures
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Abstract<p>Gas hydrate formation poses a significant threat to the production, processing, and transportation of natural gas. Accurate predictions of gas hydrate equilibrium conditions are essential for designing the gas production systems at safe operating conditions and mitigating the problems caused by hydrates formation. A new hydrate correlation for predicting gas hydrate equilibrium conditions was obtained for different gas mixtures containing methane, nitrogen and carbon dioxide. The new correlation is proposed for a pressure range of 1.7-330 MPa, a temperature range of 273-320 K, and for gas mixtures with specific gravity range of 0.553 to 1. The nonlinear regression technique was applie</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon May 20 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
THE EVALUATION OF PUBLIC SERVICES IN BAQUBAH CITY BY USING REMOTE SENSING & GIS TECHNIQUES
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Baqubah city has grown extremely rapidly. The rate of growth exceeds the growth of services that must grow side by side with the growth of population. There are natural features that affect the growth of Baqubah city such as Dieyala river, Alssariya river, in addition to agricultural areas .All these natural features affect the growth of Baqubah city in the running form being seen . In this research the remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques are used for monitoring urban expansion and forecasting the probable axes to the growth of the city, and found that the probability of Baqubah growth to east is preferred due to Baqubah growth to the east would never interfere with natural features. Also in this res

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Combining Several Substitution Cipher Algorithms using Circular Queue Data Structure
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With the revolutionized expansion of the Internet, worldwide information increases the application of communication technology, and the rapid growth of significant data volume boosts the requirement to accomplish secure, robust, and confident techniques using various effective algorithms. Lots of algorithms and techniques are available for data security.  This paper presents a cryptosystem that combines several Substitution Cipher Algorithms along with the Circular queue data structure. The two different substitution techniques are; Homophonic Substitution Cipher and Polyalphabetic Substitution Cipher in which they merged in a single circular queue with four different keys for each of them, which produces eight different outputs for

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal For Information And Documentation Studies
Improving students' cognitive abilities using modern technologies: an experimental study
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The importance of knowledge is represented in the use of various sources of information, the corresponding to the same level of importance is the use of modern means and technologies in the delivery and investment of these sources to the beneficiaries, among these means and technologies are the multimedia that deal with most of the human senses, but the most important of which is sight and hearing, if these are invested the means in the field of education will give many positive results, such as the speed of receiving information, its clarity, and its freedom from impurities and influences, as well as its stability in memory as it is based on nderstanding, not memorization. On this basis, the experience of supporting the education process

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