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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Dilemmas in teaching human rights and democracy between the current realityand the difficulties in seeking to spread a culture of human rights
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In the age of information and communication revolution, education as one of life
aspects has influenced with that revolution by integrating technology in education, which
have become as an important learning tools of the whole educational process . Technology,
when used appropriately, can help make science classroom a site of active learning and
critical thinking, furthering student inquiry and connections with different materials. It is
necessary to develop human rights education programs and materials for discretionary and
extracurricular activities as it provide them with the skills and tools so that they are
empowered to take action to realize their rights. Human rights education is a critical means of
instill

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Evaluation of the Activity of Prepared Zinc Nanoparticles with Extracted Alfalfa Plant in the Treatment of Heavy Metals
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The alfalfa plant, after harvesting, was washed, dried, and grinded to get fine powder used in water treatment. We used the alfalfa plant with ethanol to make the alcoholic extract characterized by using (GC-Mass, FTIR, and UV) spectroscopy to determine active compounds. Alcoholic extract was used to prepare zinc nanoparticles. We characterized Zinc nanoparticles using (FTIR, UV, SEM, EDX Zeta potential, XRD, AFM). Zinc nanoparticle with Alfalfa extract and alfalfa powder were used in the treatment of water polluted with inorganic elements such as Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Cd, Ag by (Batch processing). The batch process with using alfalfa powder gets treated with Pb (51.45%), which is the highest percentage of treatment. Mn (13.18%), which is the

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 23 2025
Journal Name
Научный форум
PHRASEOLOGISMS RELATED TO THE USE OF COLORS IN SPEECH AS A MEANS OF ENRICHING MODERN RUSSIAN LANGUAGE
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The paper examines key aspects of the use of phraseologi-cal units related to colors in Russian culture and speech. It explores their role in shaping cultural identity, reflecting national characteristics and men-tality. The study analyzes the frequency and contexts of the use of color-related phraseological units in contemporary speech, as well as the influ-ence of media and literature on their popularization. The author highlights the significance of phraseological units in preserving cultural heritage and fostering a deeper understanding of language and culture.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health
Salivary Protein Carbonyl Level in Relation to Gingival Health Status among a Group of Iraqi Pregnant Women
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Dentistry
In-vitro adhesive and interfacial analysis of a phosphorylated resin polyalkenoate cement bonded to dental hard tissues.
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Objectives: To assess the performance of a novel resin-modified glass-ionomer cement (pRMGIC) bonded to various tooth tissues after two-time intervals. Methods: 192 sound human molars were randomly assigned to 3 groups (n = 64): sound enamel, demineralised enamel, sound dentine. Sixty-four teeth with natural carious lesions including caries-affected dentine (CAD) were selected. All substrates were prepared, conditioned and restored with pRMGIC (30% ethylene glycol methacrylate phosphate (EGMP, experimental), Fuji II LC (control), Fuji IX, and Filtek™ Supreme with Scotchbond ™ Universal Adhesive. Shear bond strength (SBS) was determined after 24 h and three months storage in SBF at 37C. The debonded surfaces were examined using stereomi

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 25 2017
Journal Name
European Journal Of Environmental And Civil Engineering
Effect of saturation on response of a single pile embedded in saturated sandy soil to vertical vibration
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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
The Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal
Is It Reasonable to Screen for Undiagnosed Diabetes and Prediabetes in Asymptomatic Individuals? A Sample from Baghdad
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BACKGROUND: Diabetes Mellitus is a complex chronic illness that has increased significantly around the world and is expected to affect 628 million in 2045. Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes may affect 24% - 62% of the people with diabetes; while the prevalence of prediabetes is estimated to be 470 million cases by 2030. AIM OF STUDY: To find the percentage of undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes in a slice of people aged ≥ 45years, and relate it with age, gender, central obesity, hypertension, and family history of diabetes. METHODS: A cross sectional study that included 712 healthy individuals living in Baghdad who accepted to take part in this study and fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 04 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A comparative study to determine the native eye lens protein in the some types of Iraqi vertebrates
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This study showed that the lens in baloot muluki fish Chondrostoma regium is transparent, spherical shape, and solid in textures, while in the tree frog Hyla arborea savignyi, freshwater turtles Clemmys caspia caspia, white–eared bulbul Pycnonotus leucotis and brown rat Rattus norvegicus are transparent, soft and biconvex, it is very soft in white–eared bulbul. There are many significant differences have been recorded between the average weight lens and the total concentration of the protein in the lens all studied animals. Electrical migration process for lens proteins showed that there is one bundle of crystalline –? and one bundle also crystalline–? in all studied species, either crystalline–? may represent one bundle character

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