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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 26 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الخلفية التاريخية النسبية والمذهبية لبني يفرن واماكن وجودهم في المغرب والاندلس من الفتح الاسلامي الى القرن الخامس الهجري/الحادي عشر الميلادي دراسة تاريخية
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    The Berber tribes in the Islamic Maghreb and Andalusia had a distinct role in the future of states and entities .The Islamic Maghreb in terms of its stability,downfall,political relations and conflicts among them.Among these tribes was the Banu Yafran tribe, which is the subject of the study.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Hurst exponent estimation methods
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Through recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Estimation for the Parameters and Hazard Function of Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution
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Transforming the common normal distribution through the generated Kummer Beta model to the Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution (KBGND) had been achieved. Then, estimating the distribution parameters and hazard function using the MLE method, and improving these estimations by employing the genetic algorithm. Simulation is used by assuming a number of models and different sample sizes. The main finding was that the common maximum likelihood (MLE) method is the best in estimating the parameters of the Kummer Beta Generalized Normal Distribution (KBGND) compared to the common maximum likelihood according to Mean Squares Error (MSE) and Mean squares Error Integral (IMSE) criteria in estimating the hazard function. While the pr

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Full Text Book Of Minar Congress10
مستوى الافصاح عن المعلومات المالية المتعلقة بالاستدامة على وفق معيار (IFRS-S1) وتأثير على أداء الشركة - بحث تطبيقي في عينة عن المصارف الاسلامية العراقية
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 13 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
استخلاص عامل التلزن ( اللكتين ) من بكتريا لخلايا Enterococcus faecalis EM1 وتأثير العوامل البيئية المختلفة عليه ودوره في تلزن أنواع من البكتريا السالبة لملون غرام
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استخلص عامل التلزن من E. faecalis EM1 بعد تكسير الخلايا بعدة طرق واختيار الطريقة التي تعطي اعلى قيمة تلزن والترسيب بالكحول الاثيلي , واجري فحص التلزن وقياسه للمستخلص  مع انواع من البكتريا السالبة لملون غرام تضمنت     Escherichia coli  و Klebsiella  pneumoniae  و Serratia

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 23 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
قيود الختام او حرود المتن دراسة تطبيقية بالاستناد على نماذج مختارة من المخطوطات الاسلامية من القرن(10-13هـ/ 16-19م) في المكتبة المركزية بأربيل:
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     Islamic manuscripts are considered an identity for the civilizational, cognitive and cultural development of nations and the Islamic world as a whole, and to identify this identity

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
جهود جُهُودُ عُلَمَاءِ العِرَاقِ في تَدْوِينِ الف هَ ا رِسِ والكَ ش ا فَاتِ والمَ جَ ل تِ المعْ ن يةِ بال ت راثِ
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The scholars of Iraq in the modern and contemporary era have been interested in the definition of tremendous knowledge treasures left by the successive Iraqi civilizations on Mesopotamia and around the cities, through the census and extrapolation of manuscript heritage and even printed, they compiled indexes,evidence

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 26 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
قيود الختام او حرود المتن دراسة تطبيقية بالاستناد على نماذج مختارة من المخطوطات الاسلامية من القرن(10-13هـ/ 16-19م) في المكتبة المركزية بأربيل:
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     Islamic manuscripts are considered an identity for the civilizational, cognitive and cultural development of nations and the Islamic world as a whole, and to identify this identity, the closing statement usually written at the end of the manuscript helps us with this, meaning that the closing entries serve as the identity document of the manuscript

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-turath University College
A Comparison of Traditional and Optimized Multiple Grey Regression Models with Water Data Application
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Grey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "m

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Causal Effect of treatment via Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs
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In some cases, researchers need to know the causal effect of the treatment in order to know the extent of the effect of the treatment on the sample in order to continue to give the treatment or stop the treatment because it is of no use. The local weighted least squares method was used to estimate the parameters of the fuzzy regression discontinuous model, and the local polynomial method was used to estimate the bandwidth. Data were generated with sample sizes (75,100,125,150 ) in repetition 1000. An experiment was conducted at the Innovation Institute for remedial lessons in 2021 for 72 students participating in the institute and data collection. Those who used the treatment had an increase in their score after

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