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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تطور التعليم العالي في مدينة بغداد 1908-1957
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من المتفق عليه أن هناك طريقا واحدا لنشر الثقافة والقضاء على الجهل هو التعليم .ولعل أبرز ماشهدته مدينة بغداد من تطور هو ظهور المدر سة ومن ثم إنتشارها بشكل كبير وفق المفهوم الحديث مما أثرفي عموم الحياة اليومية ، ومن ضمنها التعليم العالي .إن الإستقرار من أهم ماتحتاجه الجامعة للقيام بواجباتها ولايأتي الإستقرار إلا بالإستقرار الذي يضمن لنا أن تكون الجامعة بعيدة عن ما قد يستجد من الأهواء و النزاعات.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Role socialization family erroneous and its impact on criminal behavior
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The correct and sincere process of socialization is working on appropriate social climate in
which this process is the provision, and the climate is achieved in the presence of a positive
environment free of negatives and contradictions, but when there is a socialization processes
inadequate and contradictory was not based on the principles of punishment and reward nor a
balance between methods soft and intensity of treatment and interaction with small and
adolescent does not require intensive social care formulas do not create the conditions
essential items required by the successful and effective socialization, the young and the young
people who are going through in such Altanisah and educational operations will be

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Crises Management at University of Basra An Analytical& descriptive Study
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It is an analytical study carried out at university of Basra  using a sample included the dean ,assistants and managers of scientific dept. in the university for about(63)managers .The study aimed at discovering  a model of  crises management in the university.The researcher adopted the descriptive survey methodology.To achieve the objective of the study ,a questionnaire of (41)statements was developed covering five main  variables like ,signal detection, prevention and preparedness, response, recovery and learning .The validity of the questionnaire was done by a group of referees .Its stability was determined by Cronbach,s  Alfa  .The questionnair,s stability coefficient was(0.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Value system and its impact on the morals of the public job of the individual
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         Values ​​are penetrating or interfering in the lives of individuals and groups and are connected to them in the sense of life itself, because they are closely linked to the motives of behavior, hopes and goals, and can be said that values ​​are everything. The concept of values ​​is one of the concepts that have received the attention of researchers from different disciplines. This has resulted in a kind of confusion and variation in use from one specialization to the other, and uses multiple uses within one specialization. Therefore, there is no uniform definition of values ​​because they relate to individuals. Individuals differ in many things, such as perception,

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of electronic payment systems on the effectiveness of monetary policy
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Information and Communication Technology  revolution has led to the emergence of electronic payment systems and their means And that the replacement of these modern means replace the traditional means (legal money) issued by the Central Bank has influenced the performance of monetary policy, especially that monetary policy is one of the most important policies used to achieve economic stability ,  The aim of the research is To know the impact of electronic payment systems on the tools of monetary policy as these means, such as cards and electronic money issued by credit institutions and companies, that is, the Central Bank is not responsible for issuance and spread And the lack of regulation by the Central Bank will lea

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 07 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
استراتيجية الاكتشاف الموجه وأثرها في مهارات التواصل الرياضي
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  • Aim of the current research is to know the impact of guided discovery strategy sports communication skills among students in first grade average in mathematics.
  • , Consisted sample of (58) a student from a school Baghdad Rusafa, divided in two groups, one experimental studied according to strategy discovery The second group studied the traditional way, the researchers built search tool (test communication skills sports), and using a number of statistical methods including : -
  • Test (t - test) was used to independent samples to examine the match Mediterranean experimental and control groups and tested Levin (Leven - test
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 07 2009
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
السياسة في الفلسفة الاسلامية : الفكر السياسي عند الفارابي
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السياسة في الفلسفة الاسلامية : الفكر السياسي عند الفارابي

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 20 2011
Journal Name
مجلة الاداب
השורשים השניים בלשון העברית (עיון אנאליטי השוואתי)
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התמצית השניות היא התורה שנזכרת כי המוצאים בלשון הערבית וכך בלשונות השמיות אינם הבטויים בעלי האותיות השלושיות , אלא בעלי שתי אותיות . לפי כך אפשר להשיב השורשים השלושיים לשורשים השניים . וכל אות שנאספה בשורש שׁניוני, יהיה לפי חוק ההתפתחות הלשונית , הוספות תחילית , תוכית , סופית , עם השארת החיבור המשמעתית בין השׁניוני והשׁלשׁי כמו היא ממושכת בין השׁלשׁי והרביעי ומה שרבה ההוספות . השרשים השניים מוצאים הם: אות וה

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الحركات الحركات الفكرية والثورية في التراث العربي- الإسلامي
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The intellectual and revolutionary movements that have emerged since the beginning of the second half of the first century of the Islamic era did not appear suddenly, but must have preceded by a social consciousness, multi-forms, in the forefront of class awareness and religious awareness, and awareness was more painful, Of the society of the Arabian Peninsula - before Islam - feel it and suffer from it, a sense of injustice and tyranny, oppression and humiliation, and the destruction of dignity as well as poverty and hunger, and the injustice of tribal laws, and tyranny of each other and the tyranny of their heads on the tribes members and families belonging to this tribe or hill

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 23 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
دور دور الخلافة العباسية في تقوية النشاط التجاري
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The role of the Abbasid Caliphate in strengthening the business with the Indian subcontinent and development. Came upon Baghdad and the shift of succession to Iraq in the forefront of efforts made by the Abbasids to revive the trade with Eastern countries, given that the commercial was targeted among other factors,'s location in Iraq amid the ancient world among the countries of Turk

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