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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
التجربة الاتحادية في دولة الامارات العربية المتحدة
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التجربة الاتحادية في دولة الامارات العربية المتحدة

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2005
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Dans La Maison Du Berger Et Le Mont Des Oliviers De Vigny
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Dans le romantisme et ses textes, il est important de mentionner qu'il n'existe qu'un seul thème romantique qui est l'amour, mais assez pour avoir fait du XIXème siècle, une révolution du texte romantique. L'amour consiste à la réduction de l'univers, à un seul être, puis la dilatation de ce seul être, voilà l'amour. cet amour passionnel n'est qu'un arrangement froid et réfléchi excluant d'emblée l'exaltation des sentiments. Néanmoins, cet amour passionnel peut être brutal. quant à la mort, dans le drame romantique, l'amour et la mort sont liés. Beaucoup d'histoires d'amour finissent le plus souvent par un suicide passionnel : le romantique cherche à l'atteindre par l'amour un sentiment sanctifié, et divinisé ; mais c

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
مهارات ما بعد المعرفية في الأداء التعبيري
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إن التعبير ينوء بأثقال كبيرة ، وهذه المشكلة قد تتضاعف ،لأنَّ التعبير يحتاج إلى مها ا رت " لم
تنجح المدرسة في تنميتها تنمية صحيحة " ولأنّهُ يصطدم بعوامل معوقة متعددة منها ثنائية اللغة ،
وكثافة الصفوف ، وغياب المنهج ، وٕاهمال التصحيح، ووضع المدرس لكلمة "لوحظ" من غير
ملاحظة شيء وقلة الحصص ، وضعف الربط بين فروع اللغة ، والتساهل في إعداد المدرس.
وقد كان من نتائج د ا رسة أجرتها المنظمة العربية للتربية والثقافة

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The efforts of Sheikh Al-Ahmadia
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Abstract: Various peoples have contributed to building the Islamic civilization through the achievements and creativity of their scholars. In particular, the Kurdish scholars have provided new and great services to the Holy Qur’an that deserves attention. For example, it is no secret that Sheikh Ahmadian, with his interpretation, rendered a great service to the Glorious Book of God. His style is distinguished by modernity, seriousness and objectivity, and represents a lively response to the needs of the Kurdish Muslim people. Due to the importance of Ahmadian’s interpretation of the Qur’an, therefore, I have demonstrated his approach in this research in terms of dealing with his interpretation of the Qur’an with the Qur’an, the

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 13 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Community composition of India and its impact on national unity
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India is today the largest democratic state in the Third World and has been able to maintain its national unity in the near future. The history of Indian civilization is more than 5,000 years old. It has achieved its heritage, culture, philosophy, traditions, national unity and unity and has taken its place among nations seeking progress and progress. Which are still visible to the present day, because of their history of civilization and achievements, and the fusion of cultures of invading peoples over the centuries with the culture of diverse Indian society, but despite being a secular state, Has put into place through its governments various forms of exclusion and marginalization towards the people of India, especially Muslims, and th

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Servant Leadership and its Impact on the Effectiveness of Teamwork
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   The research problem stems from the suffering of organizations from the weakness of their organizing aspect and the weak influence of the leadership on the subordinates and their dispersion. Organizations today are in rapid development and therefore work relations are not dominated by the humanitarian aspect and the first goal has become productivity. The research aims to identify the influence of servant leadership and its dimensions as an independent variable on the effectiveness of work teams as an approved variable and their importance increases when these organizations are service organizations, and how their influence increases when this leadership is the servant leadership and its dimensions in the Health Depa

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 04 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
أساليب الطلب في مجموعة ايُّ العذابات أدنى
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The method of request is one of the important rhetorical methods used by the creator in terms of rhetorical diversification, influence, artistic aesthetics and increasing textual coherence, and we tried through a group (Which torments are inferior) by the poet Majid Al-Rubaie, to shed light on these methods and their ability, displacement, relationality, direct and advertising interactions from them, and what they broadcast From metaphorical purposes is the second image of it, after its main image and title. This cohesion and harmony between the two images is an important and influential rhetorical trend

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
بصمات الذاكرة التاريخية في الحياة الوطنية العراقية
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بصمات الذاكرة التاريخية في الحياة الوطنية العراقية

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risks of Audit under Environment of Information Technology
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Standards of audit have been defined issued them by professional organizations the audit risk is: Failure of the auditor inadvertently to amend his opinion on the financial statements in suitable method, although these statements are Interpolated Essentially. As result the deep impacts caused by electronic operating systems in the accounting data in the audit process which audit risk has gained attention of many professional sides, especially the audit process and quality is relating with level of discovery the auditor for the mistakes of origin (misrepresentations) all their types and give the necessary confidence for the auditor to express his technical opinion in fidelity and certified financial statements which prepared electronicall

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
نشاط القنصلیة البریطانیة في الكویت ١٩٤٥_ ١٨٨٦
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Incoming mail from The Arabian Gulf shifted its route to the city of
Aleppo in 1755 as it was used to be sent to Kuwait instead of the city of
Basra. That route became of great importance to the East India -English
Company. British government extended its influence to Muscat and the
southern coast of the Arabian Gulf after the Maritime peace treaty (Peace
Treaty General) being signed on January 21st 1820 and its immediate
aftermath of the treaties of peace with Sheiks of the region .Thereafter, Britain
started to spread its influence to Kuwait and practice pressures on is Sheikhs
who rejected to comply with the British pressures.
The actual activity of the British consuls in Kuwait mainly appeared
between th

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