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bsj-4606
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in determining the best seasonal model. Then they are compared with the obtained models from two methods that mentioned above of the two approaches within a group of the criteria as AIC, MDL, Loss Function, BIC, FPE, MSE, in addition the proposed weighted comparison criteria to determine the best model for representing the wind speed data as input variable, soil and dust as an output variable, in Baghdad Station from January 1956 to December 2012.

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Publication Date
Thu May 16 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study of Transverse and Longitudinal Crack Propagation in Human Bone Using the Finite Element Method with MATLAB
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A finite element is a study that is capable of predicting crack initiation and simulating crack propagation of human bone. The material model is implemented in MATLAB finite element package, which allows extension to any geometry and any load configuration. The fracture mechanics parameters for transverse and longitudinal crack propagation in human bone are analyzed. A fracture toughness as well as stress and strain contour are generated and thoroughly evaluated. Discussion is given on how this knowledge needs to be extended to allow prediction of whole bone fracture from external loading to aid the design of protective systems.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
A new Cumulative Damage Model for Fatigue Life Prediction under Shot Peening Treatment
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 Abstract

In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Mathematical Model of a Thermally Activated Roof (TAR) Cooling System Using a Simplified RC-Thermal Model with Time Dependent Supply Water Temperature
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This paper presents a computer simulation model of a thermally activated roof (TAR) to cool a room using cool water from a wet cooling tower. Modeling was achieved using a simplified 1-D resistance-capacitance thermal network (RC model) for an infinite slab. Heat transfer from the cooling pipe network was treated as 2-D heat flow. Only a limited number of nodes were required to obtain reliable results. The use of 6th order RC-thermal model produced a set of ordinary differential equations that were solved using MATLAB - R2012a. The computer program was written to cover all possible initial conditions, material properties, TAR system geometry and hourly solar radiation. The cool water supply was considered time

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 13 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization of Cutting Parameters for Milling Process of (4032) Al-Alloy using Taguchi-Based Grey Relational Analysis
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The objective of this work is to study the influence of end milling cutting process parameters, tool material and geometry on multi-response outputs for 4032 Al-alloy. This can be done by proposing an approach that combines Taguchi method with grey relational analysis. Three cutting parameters have been selected (spindle speed, feed rate and cut depth) with three levels for each parameter. Three tools with different materials and geometry have been also used to design the experimental tests and runs based on matrix L9. The end milling process with several output characteristics is solved using a grey relational analysis. The results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the major influencing parameters on multi-objective response w

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic leadership skills as a moderate of the impact of environmental challenges on effective management of the environment according to the model (VUCA Prime)
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Purpose – The main purpose of this research is to highlight the main role of strategic leadership skills for top managements in accessing to effective management in accordance with the (VUCA Prime) methodology in (VUCA) environment as Miniature virtual environment, which refers to (Volatility), (Uncertainty), (Complexity), and (Ambiguity).

methodology – To achieve the research objective, this study selected the quantitative approach in research design, Questionnaire was used as the main instrument for data collection, the sample comprised the opinion poll (106) individual who functions as a head department. (Structural equation modelling by (Smart Pls3)

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Cybersecurity And Information Management
A New Automated System Approach to Detect Digital Forensics using Natural Language Processing to Recommend Jobs and Courses
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A resume is the first impression between you and a potential employer. Therefore, the importance of a resume can never be underestimated. Selecting the right candidates for a job within a company can be a daunting task for recruiters when they have to review hundreds of resumes. To reduce time and effort, we can use NLTK and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to extract essential data from a resume. NLTK is a free, open source, community-driven project and the leading platform for building Python programs to work with human language data. To select the best resume according to the company’s requirements, an algorithm such as KNN is used. To be selected from hundreds of resumes, your resume must be one of the best. Theref

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing indicators of the results of applying forecasting methods for production plans (A case study at the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries)
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Economic organizations operate in a dynamic environment, which necessitates the use of quantitative techniques to make their decisions. Here, the role of forecasting production plans emerges. So, this study aims to the analysis of the results of applying forecasting methods to production plans for the past years, in the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries.

The Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries was chosen as a field of research for its role in providing distinguished products as well as the development and growth of its products and quality, and because it produces many products, and the study period was limited to ten years, from 2010 to 2019. This study used the descriptive approa

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlat

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
ptimization the Parameters of Magnetic Abrasive Process Using Taguchi Method to Improve the Surface Roughness
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Abstract  

Magnetic abrasive finishing (MAF) process is one of non-traditional or advanced finishing methods which is suitable for different materials and produces high quality level of surface finish where it uses magnetic force as a machining pressure. A set of experimental tests was planned according to Taguchi orthogonal array (OA) L27 (36) with three levels and six input parameters. Experimental estimation and optimization of input parameters for MAF process for stainless steel type 316 plate work piece, six input parameters including amplitude of tooth pole, and number of cycle between teeth, current, cutting speed, working gap, and finishing time, were performed by design of experiment

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