Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

The problem of frequency estimation of a single sinusoid observed in colored noise is addressed. Our estimator is based on the operation of the sinusoidal digital phase-locked loop (SDPLL) which carries the frequency information in its phase error after the noisy sinusoid has been acquired by the SDPLL. We show by computer simulations that this frequency estimator beats the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) on the frequency error variance for moderate and high SNRs when the colored noise has a general low-pass filtered (LPF) characteristic, thereby outperforming, in terms of frequency error variance, several existing techniques some of which are, in addition, computationally demanding. Moreover, the present approach generalizes on existing work tha

          This paper deals with studying the effect of hole inclination angle on computing slip velocity and consequently its effect on lifting capacity. The study concentrates on selected vertical wells in Rumaila field, Southern Iraq. Different methods were used to calculate lifting capacity. Lifting capacity is the most important factor for successful drilling and which reflex on preventing hole problems and reduces drilling costs. Many factors affect computing lifting capacity, so hence the effect of hole inclination angle on lifting capacity will be shown in this study. A statistical approach was used to study the lifting capacity values which deal with the effect of hole

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of respiratory airways characterized by distinctive history of respiratory symptoms due to variable airflow obstruction which reverses either spontaneously or in response to certain medications. Acetylcholine is a parasympathetic neurotransmitter which plays fundamental roles in the development of persistent asthma. Treatment guidelines recommend using medium doses of inhaled corticosteroids in addition to another controller bronchodilator instead of using high doses inhaled steroid alone for treatment of moderate to severe persistent asthma. The inhaled long acting muscarinic antagonist, tiotropium, was approved recently to control unresponsive asthma to inhaled corticosteroid with or without a long

Background: Cigarette smoking is an important risk factor that has a clear strong association with the prevalence and severity of chronic periodontitis (CP). Salivary biochemical parameters may be affected by both smoking and CP together. Materials and methods: Eighty systematically healthy male patients were included in this study. They were grouped based on their periodontal and smoking status. Unstimulated whole saliva (UWS) was collected from all subject. Salivary flow rate (FR) was measured during sample collection. Parameters such as salivary pH, total protein (TP), albumin (Alb), total fucose (TF), protein bound fucose (PBF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were estimated. Results: Salivary flow rate was not altered regarding to smoking

 Endometriosis is a common women health disorder that occurs when Endometrial-like tissue grows outside the uterus. This may lead to irregular bleeding , pelvic pain, infertility and other complications.   Metformin,  because of its activity to improve  insulin sensitivity, it is  used for  the treatment of diabetes; it  also  has a modulatory  effect  on  ovarian  steroid  production and has  anti-inflammatory  properties,  all may  suggest  its possible effect in treatment  of endometriosis. This  study  was  planned  to  determine  the  effect  of  metformin  on serum levels  of&nbs

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative aging disease, with idiopathic PD being most common. Gastrointestinal tract disorders (GITD) and microbiota changes may trigger idiopathic PD. Neurotoxins from microbiota can travel from the gut to the brain via the brain-gut axis (BGA), leading to α-syn protein misfolding and dopaminergic neuron death. Methods: The aim of the current study was to investigate the link between PD and GITD by measuring several biochemical and immunological markers in 142 patients. The biochemical markers measured were vitamins B6, B12, and D, calcium, serotonin, ghrelin, dopamine, and α-syn protein. The immunological markers included transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β), tu

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease that affects mainly the synovial membranes and articular structures and is characterized by chronic, systemic inflammation involving multiple joints.Being a synovial joint, the Temporomandibular Joint is subject to the same disorders affecting other synovial joints, including RA.Beside it was considered as a specific serological marker for diagnosing RA disease ,antibodies to cyclic citrullinated peptide have proven to be associated with joints destruction, though; it may play a potential role in the prediction of the disease severity. Materials and Methods: Sixty nine individuals (69) were enrolled in this study, forty nine (49) were patients diagnosed with Rheumatoid Arthritis, a

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune diseasecharacterized by chronic inflammationthat affects joints and cartilage. Bone complications such asRA-relatedosteoporosis are one of the most extra-articular manifestations. Many inflammatory mediators are released during RA disease pathophysiology; these mediators stimulate osteoclast genesis of bone by direct effects on RANKL and OPG. The study aimedto measure RANKL, OPG in RA patients treated with Etanercept only and other groups treated with Methotrexate onlyat baseline and after three months to evaluate bone state. An observational case-control prospective study was done on 30 RA patients who received MTX, 30 RA patients who received ETN, and 30 healthy,age-matched control groups. The