Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
The agricultural sector suffers from many risks and natural disasters, such as droughts and heavy rains that cause floods, as well as hail and agricultural pests, etc., that threaten agricultural activity and reduce it, which leads to the failure of farmers and peasants for fear of being subjected to continuous losses. Nevertheless, we notice almost complete reluctance to move towards agricultural insurance, due to the dependence of farmers on the government, which adopts the principle of compensation instead of agricultural insurance when natural disasters happen despite the difficulties and financial hardship as well as the suspicion of corruption that haunt the compensation process and this represents the most important problem for resea
... Show MoreThis study aims to suggest an alternative to the use of quality agricultural soil in the brick industry (Iraq). The Late Miocene claystone bed in the Injana Formation in central Iraq was targeted through the study of 18 exposed sections that were sampled by using the trench sampling method. The claystones are characterized by quartz (36.4%) followed by calcite (32.8%), quartz (36.4%) feldspar (2.6%), gypsum (1.3%) and dolomite (0.7%), kaolinite (10.5%), illite (7.7%), chlorite (6.7%), palygorskite (6.0%) and montmorillonite (0.7%). New thermal mineral phases were formed at 950°C, including diopside (62.9%), quartz (18.4%), wollastonite (8.28%), akermanite (7.6%), Anorthite (6.25%), Nosean (4.9%), gehlenite (3.75%) and Lazurite (3.1
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى تحليل الخيارات الاستراتيجية للاقتراض الخارجي في العراق لاستشراف افضل الخيارات الاستراتيجية المستقبلية في مجال الاقتراض الخارجي في دائرة الدين العام في وزارة المالية ، وقد استخدم الباحث منهج دراسة الحالة وباستعمال اسلوب تحليل خوارزمية ال K-Means لتشخيص كفاءة الاقتراض الخارجي لعينة البحث البالغة (81) قرضا التي اقترضتها وزارة المالية للفترة 2007-2020 . ولقد كان الغرض الرئيسي للبحث المساهمة في تمكين وزا
... Show MoreIn this research study the synodic month for the moon and their
relationship with the mean anomaly for the moon orbit and date A.D
and for long periods of time (100 years), we was design a computer
program that calculates the period of synodic months, and the
coordinates of the moon at the moment of the new moon with high
accuracy. During the 100 year, there are 1236 period of synodic
months.
We found that the when New Moon occurs near perigee (mean
anomaly = 0°), the length of the synodic month at a minimum.
Similarly, when New Moon occurs near apogee (mean anomaly =
180°), the length of the synodic month reaches a maximum. The
shortest synodic month on 2053 /1/ 16 and lasted (29.27436) days.
The lo
This study carry’s out the correlation and the effect of two main variables, these variables are Job Satisfaction included six sub: wages - salaries and justice and yield, working conditions and services, pattern of supervision and the relationship with the manger, Relationship with colleagues, the content of the work and the variety of tasks, development and promotion opportunities available to an individual, and Organizational Performance included two sub variables: Efficiency, Effectiveness. This research was conducted using a questioner as a main tool, This questioner was distributed randomly to a research community composed of
... Show MoreThe process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel
... Show MoreA field study was conducted on a sample of the public in Baghdad to study the audience's exposure to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products and their trends in order to determine the rate of exposure of the public to the television promotion of pharmaceutical products according to the theory of uses and rumors and to determine the public's attitudes towards television promotion of pharmaceutical products. A survey of (25) a questions was distributed to a sample of the audience of 150 people. The statistical program SPSS was used to unload the data and for the calculation of frequencies and percentages and correlation coefficients. The research reached several results, Most importantly, the television promotion is well receiv
... Show MoreThe development taking place on the sports field at the general level and in the game of football at the private level, being the most popular game in the world, has reached very advanced stages. The use of modern aids and technology has contributed greatly to this development from the collective and individual aspects, as the goalkeeper is the most important position in the team, the use of devices gave objective readings about the goalkeeper’s ability in terms of skill and physical aspects, as the importance of the research lies in designing an electronic device to measure the degree of bending of the knee angle because of its great importance in developing the skill of catching and dimensions of the high ball for football goalkeepers.
... Show More