Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
The current study is concerned with the analysis of spatial and temporal to death the elderly population in the city of Baghdad and at the level of administrative units Minor (districts and the areas) depending on the general population census of the province of Baghdad, data for 1997 and data from the Ministry of Health Department of Health and Vital Statistics for 2013.
The study showed differing age and quality of mortality rates at the level of administrative units of the study area, and notes the high mortality rates of elderly people of all age groups in 2013 compared to 1997, and this is due to security conditions after the USA occupation, and the accompanying conditions have affected the increase in mortality rates.
This study focuses on evaluating the suitability of three interpolation methods in terms of their accuracy at climate data for some provinces of south of Iraq. Two data sets of maximum and minimum temperature in February 2008 from nine meteorological stations located in the south of Iraq using three interpolation methods. ArcGIS is used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using IDW, ordinary kriging, and spline. Four statistical methods are applied to analyze the results obtained from three interpolation methods. These methods are RMSE, RMSE as a percentage of the mean, Model efficiency (E) and Bias, which showed that the ordinary krigingis the best for this data from other methods by the results that have b
... Show MoreIs the chemical industries of great importance for the economy of any country, through what is borne by these industries is an important part of the changes contained in the industrial output of transfer and, moreover, that these industries are overlaps and intricacies of sector-wide with the rest of the manufacturing sectors, with agriculture and services , through the offering of these industries produce Production requirements intervention such as chemical fertilizer used in the production of agricultural crops, in addition to the various areas for the use of phosphorus in the food industry, to the extent that it is difficult to find material Food preparation is not included i
... Show MoreUropathogenic Escherichia coli is the main cause of urinary tract infections, the ability of this bacteria to cause urinary tract infections is related to a variety of virulence factors that enhance colonization and evade the immune response, one of these virulence factors is cytotoxic necrotizing factor 1 toxin which converts the glutamine residue to glutamic acid to activated GTPase Rho family. The study was meant to find out the prevalence rate of the cnf1 gene in Uropathogenic Escherichia coli isolated from Iraqi patients. Conventional laboratory methods were used for primary bacterial identification and molecular methods were used to confirm bacterial identity and gene detection. Escherichia coli was identified in 89/165 (53.93%) of th
... Show MoreThe research aims to find out the impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees, which included the research community on a sample of employees in the company, and the sample consisted of (50) employees and an employee, A questionnaire composed as prepared (23) paragraph, use the promised statistically methods in data collected by the questionnaire analysis. The research reached a number of results, the most prominent of which were: There is a correlation between wage systems, benefits and performance of employees, and the presence of the impact of the systems of wages and benefits to the performance of employees. The research was presented a set of recommendations including: increasing the effectiveness of
... Show MoreThis study was carried out to study effect of magnetic water ( M0 and M) and different concentrations of coconut extract in Fragaria x ananassa (Duch) C.V Festival. The results showed significant differences in the plants treated with magnetic water ( 0.12 Tesla) and different concentrations of coconut extract C1 (0%), C2 (2.5%), C3 (5%), C4 (7.5%) and C5 (10%) in vegetative parameters as in leaf area and chlorophyll in treatment M0C3 was (53.72 Dcm2, 50.00), respectively, highest leaf number and plant dry weight in MC4 (12.77,14.22 gm), respectively. Results recorded significant differences in fruit parameters such as weight in MC1 (18.97 gm). The maximum fruit number was in MC3 (110), the greatest fruit size was in MC4 (15.78 cm3) and the
... Show MoreThe current research aims to determine the necessary linguistic competencies for Arabic language teachers of the preparatory stage (fourth grade preparatory), which were five main competencies: Arabic grammar competencies, literary competencies, cultural competencies, rhetorical competencies, and expression competencies. To achieve the objective of the research, the researcher developed a questionnaire as the main tool for collecting data based on literature, it consists of (28) items including the five main competencies. The questionnaire was administered to (60) male and female teachers at Al-Karkh's first Education Directorate in the city of Baghdad. The findings of the research indicated that Arabic language proficiency got the highe
... Show MoreIn this study, the researcher aims to analyze the content of the physics textbook for the 3rd intermediate grade according to the criteria for designing and producing infographics, and the research community consists of the content of the physics textbook for the 3rd intermediate grade intermediate grade for the academic year 2021-2022. The researcher adopted the analysis instruments with a number of the criteria for designing and producing infographics. The results revealed randomness in the percentage of the criteria included in the content of the physics textbook for the 3rd intermediate grade, and they are not compatible with the proposed criteria by the experts also.
Physical and chemical adsorption analyses were carried out by nitrogen gas using ASTM apparatus at 77 K and hydrogen gas using volumetric apparatus at room temperature respectively. These analyses were used for determination the effect of coke deposition and poisoning metal on surface area, pore size distribution and metal surface area of fresh and spent hydrodesulphurization catalyst Co-MoAl2O3 .Samples of catalyst (fresh and spent) used in this study are taken from AL-Dura refinery. The results of physical adsorption shows that surface area of spent catalyst reduced to third compare with fresh catalyst and these catalysts exhibit behavior of type four according to BET classification ,so, the pores of these samples are cylindrical, and the
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