Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
This study focuses on evaluating the suitability of three interpolation methods in terms of their accuracy at climate data for some provinces of south of Iraq. Two data sets of maximum and minimum temperature in February 2008 from nine meteorological stations located in the south of Iraq using three interpolation methods. ArcGIS is used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using IDW, ordinary kriging, and spline. Four statistical methods are applied to analyze the results obtained from three interpolation methods. These methods are RMSE, RMSE as a percentage of the mean, Model efficiency (E) and Bias, which showed that the ordinary krigingis the best for this data from other methods by the results that have b
... Show More Purpose - The study aimed at evaluating the accounting system of the Iraqi political parties, which is applied according to legislative texts, and then the ability to provide accounting information to evaluate the strategic performance and control of the party's operational and financial performance.
Findings- The research found that the unified accounting system applied to political parties does not provide relevance informations to judge the performance of the political party, the researcher a proposal for an accounting system that provides the necessary information to measure and monitor the performance of Iraqi political parties can be presented. The
Monetary policy is an important part of the economic policy to influence the monetary aspect of stabilization, for this reason the research will seek to clarify the extent of the impact of monetary policy in achieving monetary stability in Iraq during the chosen research period, because the Iraqi economy suffers from monetary instability due to political and security turmoil, Therefore, an effective and effective monetary policy is required in terms of reducing inflationary pressures to reach the required monetary stability, in order to create the appropriate monetary environment for the work of the economic and productive sectors. Thus, the research adopted a basic hypothesis that monetary policy in Iraq has a clear impact on achieving mon
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The study aims to identify the level of health services provided in private suites to government hospitals from the perspective of the recipi
... Show MoreEconomic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.
The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance
... Show MoreAbstract:
The paper aims to measure an aggregated banking stability index reflecting the degree of stability of the banking system to help policy makers to take the necessary actions to avoid financial crises facing banks and to achieve a banking system with high efficiency in terms of banking risk.
Therefore, the problem of paper is that the Central Bank of Iraq did not seek until 2016 to build a aggregated index for the purpose of identifying the stability of the banking situation in Iraq, but rather on the adoption of scattered indicators, which depend on the mechanism of relative changes in those indicators for the purpose of identifying the situation of b
... Show MoreHydraulic fracturing is considered to be a vital cornerstone in decision making of unconventional reservoirs. With an increasing level of development of unconventional reservoirs, many questions have arisen regarding enhancing production performance of tight carbonate reservoirs, especially the evaluation of the potential for adapting multistage hydraulic fracturing technology in tight carbonate reservoirs to attain an economic revenue.
In this paper we present a feasibility study of multistage fractured horizontal well in typical tight carbonate reservoirs covering different values of permeability. We show that NPV is the suitable objective function for deciding on the optimum number
Despite the significant increase in public spending in Iraq, it was not directed toward the important sectors that have an important role in correcting the productive structure. Rather, most of the public expenditure was going to cover the required imports, or to face shocks, whether security or health, and this caused a continuous decrease in the volume of Iraq's exports of goods and services, as the aim of the study was to review the importance of public debt and its impact on the trade balance, as well as to know the economic policies that can contribute to strengthening the trade balance, as the study proved through the (ARDL) model that there is a direct relationship between the domestic debt and the net trade balance, and an invers
... Show MoreIn this paper, a random transistor-transistor logic signal generator and a synchronization circuit are designed and implemented in lab-scale measurement device independent–quantum key distribution systems. The random operation of the weak coherent sources and the system’s synchronization signals were tested by a time to digital convertor.
