Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
Physics and applied mathematics form the basis for understanding natural phenomena using differential equations depicting the flow in porous media, the motion of viscous liquids, and the propagation of waves. These equations provide a thorough study of physical processes, enhancing the understanding of complex applications in engineering, technology, and medicine. This paper presents novel approximate solutions for the Darcy-Brinkmann-Forchheimer moment equation, the Blasius equation and the FalknerSkan equation with initial / boundary conditions by using two iterative methods: the variational iteration method and the optimal variational iteration method. The variational iteration method is effectively developed by adding a control paramete
... Show MoreObjecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building chain.
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... Show MoreThis paper is attempt to study the nonlinear second order delay multi-value problems. We want to say that the properties of such kind of problems are the same as the properties of those with out delay just more technically involved. Our results discuss several known properties, introduce some notations and definitions. We also give an approximate solution to the coined problems using the Galerkin's method.
In this paper, an estimate has been made for parameters and the reliability function for Transmuted power function (TPF) distribution through using some estimation methods as proposed new technique for white, percentile, least square, weighted least square and modification moment methods. A simulation was used to generate random data that follow the (TPF) distribution on three experiments (E1 , E2 , E3) of the real values of the parameters, and with sample size (n=10,25,50 and 100) and iteration samples (N=1000), and taking reliability times (0< t < 0) . Comparisons have been made between the obtained results from the estimators using mean square error (MSE). The results showed the
... Show MoreThis paper aims to propose a hybrid approach of two powerful methods, namely the differential transform and finite difference methods, to obtain the solution of the coupled Whitham-Broer-Kaup-Like equations which arises in shallow-water wave theory. The capability of the method to such problems is verified by taking different parameters and initial conditions. The numerical simulations are depicted in 2D and 3D graphs. It is shown that the used approach returns accurate solutions for this type of problems in comparison with the analytic ones.
Clean water supply is one of the major factors contributing significantly to society’s socio-economic transformation by improving living standards, health, and increasing productivity. It is imperative to plan and construct appropriate water supply systems in modern society, which supply various segments of society with safe drinking water according to their requirements to ensure adequate and quality water supply. In the current study, here was an attempt to develop a model for geographic information systems to manage the assets of the water distribution networks in the Karrada region and to evaluate the network geometrically, and from the results of the engineering analysis of the
The Estimation Of The Reliability Function Depends On The Accuracy Of The Data Used To Estimate The Parameters Of The Probability distribution, and Because Some Data Suffer from a Skew in their Data to Estimate the Parameters and Calculate the Reliability Function in light of the Presence of Some Skew in the Data, there must be a Distribution that has flexibility in dealing with that Data. As in the data of Diyala Company for Electrical Industries, as it was observed that there was a positive twisting in the data collected from the Power and Machinery Department, which required distribution that deals with those data and searches for methods that accommodate this problem and lead to accurate estimates of the reliability function,
... Show MoreIn this paper, the proposed phase fitted and amplification fitted of the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method were derived on the basis of existing method of 4(5) order to solve ordinary differential equations with oscillatory solutions. The recent method has null phase-lag and zero dissipation properties. The phase-lag or dispersion error is the angle between the real solution and the approximate solution. While the dissipation is the distance of the numerical solution from the basic periodic solution. Many of problems are tested over a long interval, and the numerical results have shown that the present method is more precise than the 4(5) Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method.
For many problems in Physics and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), providing an accurate approximation of derivatives is a challenging task. This paper presents a class of high order numerical schemes for approximating the first derivative. These approximations are derived based on solving a special system of equations with some unknown coefficients. The construction method provides numerous types of schemes with different orders of accuracy. The accuracy of each scheme is analyzed by using Fourier analysis, which illustrates the dispersion and dissipation of the scheme. The polynomial technique is used to verify the order of accuracy of the proposed schemes by obtaining the error terms. Dispersion and dissipation errors are calculated
... Show MoreIn this paper, we derived an estimators and parameters of Reliability and Hazard function of new mix distribution ( Rayleigh- Logarithmic) with two parameters and increasing failure rate using Bayes Method with Square Error Loss function and Jeffery and conditional probability random variable of observation. The main objective of this study is to find the efficiency of the derived of Bayesian estimator compared to the to the Maximum Likelihood of this function using Simulation technique by Monte Carlo method under different Rayleigh- Logarithmic parameter and sample sizes. The consequences have shown that Bayes estimator has been more efficient than the maximum likelihood estimator in all sample sizes with application