Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Onchocerciasis is an infection with cutaneous, ocular and systemic manifestations caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted by the bite of various species of the anthropophilic blood-sucking Simulium vectors (black flies). Onchocerciasis is endemic to the savannahs and rainforests of subequatorial Africa and in some countries of the Arabian Peninsula, notably Yemen and Oman, and in Central America, and the Amazon basin of South America. Onchocercomas, which can be defined as subcutaneous fibrous nodules containing adult worms, are among the variable clinical manifestations of this infestation; they are either superficial or deep and usually located over bony prominences. In this paper we report a case of an o

Submerged arc welding (SAW) process is an essential metal joining processes in industry. The quality of weld is a very important working aspect for the manufacturing and construction industries, the challenges are made optimal process environment. Design of experimental using Taguchi method (L9 orthogonal array (OA)) considering three SAW parameter are (welding current, arc voltage and welding speed) and three levels (300-350-400 Amp. , 32-36-40 V and 26-28-30 cm/min). The study was done on SAW process parameters on the mechanical properties of steel type comply with (ASTM A516 grade 70). Signal to Noise ratio (S/N) was computed to calculate the optimal process parameters. Percentage contributions of each parameter are validated by using an

A fuzzy logic approach (FLA) application in the process of stud arc welding environment was implemented under the condition of fuzziness input data. This paper is composed of the background of FLA, related research work review and points for developing in stud welding manufacturing. Then, it investigates thecase of developingstud arc welding process on the controversial certaintyof available equipment and human skills.Five parameters (welding time, sheet thickness, type of coating, welding current and stud shape) were studied.A pair of parameter was selected asiteration whichis welding current and welding time and used fo

Constitute a planning problem on the basis of personal experience and self-governance in the service organizations away from quantitative scientific method in planning an anchor and a platform, who made a recent research study, analysis and interpretation through scientific methodology adopted which formed its contents, The research aims to identify the true reality of production planning in service organizations, specifically in the Baghdad Hotel as a society to look, in order to assess the best strategy through the standard cost of the strategies of tracking and settlement to cope with developments on services demand changes, Search results confirmed that the settlement rates of production strategy is the best strategy in accordance wi

Constructing a fine 3D geomodel for complex giant reservoir is a crucial task for hydrocarbon volume assessment and guiding for optimal development. The case under study is Mishrif reservoir of Halfaya oil field, which is an Iraqi giant carbonate reservoir. Mishrif mainly consists of limestone rocks which belong to Late Cenomanian age. The average gross thickness of formation is about 400m. In this paper, a high-resolution 3D geological model has been built using Petrel software that can be utilized as input for dynamic simulation. The model is constructed based on geological, geophysical, pertophysical and engineering data from about 60 available wells to characterize the structural, stratigraphic, and properties distribution along