The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

The study aims to investigate the effect of the Six Thinking Hats Strategy on the achievement of essay writing skills among third-year students in Arabic Language and Literature who are Persian speakers enrolled in the course of Essay Writing (III) at Shiraz University for the academic year 2019-2020. The sample of the study consisted of (15) male and female students who were taught according to the pre-posttest, using the quasi-experimental approach. After applying the statistical analysis on the scores of the post-test, the results showed that there are statistically significant differences in the average of students' achievement in the skills of essay writing in terms of using the Six Thinking Hats Strategy. The results also proved th

يناقش البحث الاسباب الحقيقية بتفشي الارهاب في العراق بعد العام 2003

لقد حمَّلت مفردة الإرهاب بكمٍ هائلٍ من المفاهيم والدلالات المُتباينة والمُتناقضة . لذا حاول البحث التأكيد على أهمية وضع تعريفٍ مُحدد لظاهرة الارهاب،ومن ثم توضيح ماهي الاسباب الحقيقية وراء تنامي الارهاب في العراق بعد 2003 ،وما هي المتغيرات الاجتماعية والسياسية التي اسهمت في تصاعد وتيرة العمليات الارهابية في العراق،لاسيما وإن المجتمع العراقي مجتمع متعدد الشرائح الاجتماعية،وبشكلٍ قد يُمَّ

The logistic regression model is an important statistical model showing the relationship between the binary variable and the explanatory variables.                                                        The large number of explanations that are usually used to illustrate the response led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity between the explanatory variables that make estimating the parameters of the model not accurate.    

This study relates to  the estimation of  a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables  ( )  are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods  different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method  and  Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method  to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator .

That is , parameters will be estim

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), Natural gas (NG) and hydrogen were all used to operate spark ignition internal combustion engine Ricardo E6. A comparison of CO emissions emitted from each case, with emissions emitted from engine fueled with gasoline as a fuel is conducted.

The study was accomplished when engine operated at HUCR for gasoline n(8:1), was compared with its operation at HUCR for each fuel. Compression ratio, equivalence ratio and spark timing were studied at constant speed 1500 rpm.

CO concentrations were little at lean ratios; it appeared to be effected a little with equivalence ratio in this side, at rich side its values became higher, and it appeared to be effected by equivalence ratio highly, the results s

It is noted in the title that the paper studies the viewpoint in the novel The Dog and the Long Night by the Iranian novelist Shahranoush Parsi Pour and in the novel Alibaba's Sad Night by the Iraqi novelist Abdulkhaliq Ar-Rikabi. Both are well known novelists, and about whose stories and novels many critical books, MA theses, and Ph.D. dissertations have been written. Also, some of their literary works have won prizes. Here, the researcher shed light on the concept of viewpoint, its types, and its importance in novels in general. This was done along with tackling the two viewpoints in both novels, where similarities and differences were identified. For this end, the researcher has adopted the analytic-descriptive appro

The research deals with the concept of rationalization of consumption, which is legitimately legitimized, by indicating the permissibility of consumption and its limits in Islam, the legitimate aspects of spending and its controls, and the concept of development in the Islamic economy. The researcher followed the descriptive method by presenting the legal texts and jurisprudential opinions and linking them to contemporary economic problems.The research has reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that the goal of Islam in relation to consumption is to inform the Muslim of the amount of economic maturity, and the truth of alms is good in money and religion. It is necessary for achieving maturity that both means

Atheism is one of the most dangerous absurd doctrines that have swept the world in the modern era. Its strength lies in the bodies that stand behind it and adopt its ideologies which are accompanied by the tremendous media momentum of the theses of its supporters based on scientific and non-scientific levels. And since the denial of the existence of the Creator is the main focus and central point which the atheists based their view towards the universe, life and man, this humble research came to discuss the claim of the existence of the world by pure chance, and try to explain this scientifically through the theory of natural selection and survival of the fittest developed by the English biologist Charles Darwin. The resea