التنبؤ الموسمي
                                                        
                                                                                                            
                                                            نماذج بوكس جينكنز الموسمية
                                                        
                                                                                                            
                                                            الأمراض المزمنة
                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
                                                            chronic diseases
                                                        
                                                                                                            
                                                            SARIMA
                                                        
                                                                                                            
                                                            Seasonal Forecasts
                                                        
                                                                                                            
                                                            Box-Jenkins .
                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                        
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                                            One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .
     Our research obj
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