Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

Background: Osteoporosis is an extra-articular complication of rheumatoid arthritis that results in increased risk of fractures and associated morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Objective: To evaluate changes in bone mineral density in a sample of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients on biological (anti tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha) and non-biological agent disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Patients and Methods: A cross sectional study enrolled 60 RA patients diagnosed by rheumatologist according to the 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism (2010 ACR/EULAR) classification criteria for RA. Thirty patient on biological agent (anti TNF alpha) and 30 patient on non-biological agent (D

In this paper we prove the boundedness of the solutions and their derivatives of the second order ordinary differential equation x ?+f(x) x ?+g(x)=u(t), under certain conditions on f,g and u. Our results are generalization of those given in [1].

     In this work, the pseudoparabolic problem of the fourth order is investigated to identify the time -dependent potential term under periodic conditions, namely, the integral condition and overdetermination condition. The existence and uniqueness of the solution to the inverse problem are provided. The proposed method involves discretizing the pseudoparabolic equation by using a finite difference scheme, and an iterative optimization algorithm to resolve the inverse problem which views as a nonlinear least-square minimization. The optimization algorithm aims to minimize the difference between the numerical computing solution and the measured data. Tikhonov’s regularization method is also applied to gain stable results. Two

In this research we have been studied the 3rd order spherical aberration for an optical system consisted of obscured circular aperture with non central circular obscuration through the calculation of point spread function (P.S.F) in presence of the obscuration in the center and comparing the obtained results with that results of moving obscuration far away from the center, where the results showed significant improvement for(P.S.F) value. The study was done of different obscurities ratios in addition to the different 3rd order spherical aberration values (W40=0.25 ,0.5 ,0.75 ,1 ).

Single-input Multiple-output Signals Third-order Active-R Filter for different Circuit Merit Factor Q Configuration is proposed. This paper discusses a new configuration to realize third-order low pass, band pass and high pass. The presented circuit uses Single-input Multiple-output signals, OP-AMP and passive components. This filter is useful for high frequency operation, monolithic IC implementation and it is easy to design .This circuit gives three filter functions low-pass, high-pass and band-pass. This filter circuit can be used for different merit factor (Q) with high pass band gain. This gives better stop-band attenuation and sharper cut-off at the edge of the pass-band. Thus the response shows wider pass-band. The Ideal value of thi

A reduced-order extended state observer (RESO) based a continuous sliding mode control (SMC) is proposed in this paper for the tracking problem of high order Brunovsky systems with the existence of external perturbations and system uncertainties. For this purpose, a composite control is constituted by two consecutive steps. First, the reduced-order ESO (RESO) technique is designed to estimate unknown system states and total disturbance without estimating an available state. Second, the continuous SMC law is designed based on the estimations supplied by the RESO estimator in order to govern the nominal system part. More importantly, the robustness performance is well achieved by compensating not only the lumped disturbance, but also its esti