Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated using observed data of the Blue Nile for several flood years. The calibrated and validated model is used to analyze the impact of flood wave due to dam break failure of Roseires dam to provide the following information: the maximum discharge, the maximum water level, the maximum velocity, the velocity and depth profiles, the flooding extent, etc. Several dam break scenarios that cover the possible failure modes were considered and the scenario that gives the worst situation is present in this paper. Piping is considered as failure mode with different failure parameters. It was found that failure of Roseires dam result in overtopping failure of Sennar dam due to the inability of the Sennar reservoir and dam to withstand the flood wave. The results also indicated that the maximum flood wave resulting from the failure of Roseires dam reaches Khartoum in 4, 6, 7 and 9 days when the maximum flow is 33105, 14724, 13249 and 12443 m3/s respectively the cities (Roseires, Sennar, Wad Medani and Khartoum ). The respective water surface level of flood wave is 481.01, 428.37 and 382.5 m in Roseires, Sennar and Khartoum and the wave speed at Khartoum is 8.97 m/s.
Urban land price is the primary indicator of land development in urban areas. Land prices in holly cities have rapidly increased due to tourism and religious activities. Public agencies are usually facing challenges in managing land prices in religious areas. Therefore, they require developed models or tools to understand land prices within religious cities. Predicting land prices can efficiently retain future management and develop urban lands within religious cities. This study proposed a new methodology to predict urban land prices within holy cities. The methodology is based on two models, Linear Regression (LR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), and nine variables (land price, land area,
... Show MoreObjective(s): This study aims at determining the effectiveness of an educational program on knowledge of high school students' knowledge about substance abuse and its health consequences, and to find out the association between students’ knowledge about substance abuse and its health consequences and their demographic data of age, socioeconomic status, and educational level of parents.
Methodology: A quasi-experimental study is conducted for the period of October 28th, 2019 to March 30th, 2020. The study sample included a nonprobability “purposive” sample of (124) male students (62) students for the control group and (62) students for the study group, aged (14-19) years who are selected from Al-Hikma High School for Boys in Kirk
Objectives: A cross sectional analytic study was carried out to identify the maternal risk factors which
contribute to occurrence of low birth weight, and to determine the statistical significant differences between low
birth weight and maternal risk factors.
Methodology: A purposive sample of (400) woman was selected from AL-Elwyia Maternity Teaching Hospital
and Fatima Al-Zaharia Maternity and Pediatric Teaching Hospital. Data was collected through the interview of
mothers. Questionnaire format was designed and consisted seven parts, demographic variables, and reproductive
variables , Reproductive health variables, complications during the current pregnancy, the mother newborn
variables nutritional status for the m
This study is an approach to assign the land area of Kirkuk city [ a city located in the northern of Iraq, 236 kilometers north of Baghdad and 83 kilometers south of Erbil [ Climatic atlas of Iraq, 1941-1970 ] into different multi zones by using Satellite image and Arc Map10.3, zones of different traffic noise pollutions. Land zonings process like what achieved in this paper will help and of it’s of a high interest point for the future of Kirkuk city especially urban
... Show MoreThe aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which prove
... Show MoreThe paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM), and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used
The present work concerns with simulating unsteady state equilibrium model for production of methyl oleate (biodiesel) from reaction of oleic acid with methanol using sulfuric acid as a catalyst in batch reactive distillation. MESHR equations of equilibrium model were solved using MATLAB (R2010a). The validity of simulation model was tested by comparing the simulation results with a data available in literature. UNIQUAC liquid phase activity coefficient model is the most appropriate model to describe the non-ideality of OLAC-MEOH-MEOL-H2O system. The chemical reactions rates results from EQ model indicating the rates are controlled by chemical kinetics. Several variables was studied such as molar ratio of methanol to oleic acid 4:1, 6:1
... Show MoreThe increasing use of polymeric materials in the daily life, leads to challenges in the processing industry to deliver high performance materials with affordable terms. However, new processing techniques lead to high costs. In order to reduce processing costs it is necessary to understand the non-Newtonian behavior of the polymers in their molten state to be able to simulate the processes before the construction of the plants starts. Here the shear thinning behavior of the viscosity of polymeric melts is essential. Thus, this paper deals with the experimental investigation of the thermo-rheological behavior of the viscosity of one of the most used polymers (Polypropylene) over a wide range of temperatures and shear rates. Furthermo
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