Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated using observed data of the Blue Nile for several flood years. The calibrated and validated model is used to analyze the impact of flood wave due to dam break failure of Roseires dam to provide the following information: the maximum discharge, the maximum water level, the maximum velocity, the velocity and depth profiles, the flooding extent, etc. Several dam break scenarios that cover the possible failure modes were considered and the scenario that gives the worst situation is present in this paper. Piping is considered as failure mode with different failure parameters. It was found that failure of Roseires dam result in overtopping failure of Sennar dam due to the inability of the Sennar reservoir and dam to withstand the flood wave. The results also indicated that the maximum flood wave resulting from the failure of Roseires dam reaches Khartoum in 4, 6, 7 and 9 days when the maximum flow is 33105, 14724, 13249 and 12443 m3/s respectively the cities (Roseires, Sennar, Wad Medani and Khartoum ). The respective water surface level of flood wave is 481.01, 428.37 and 382.5 m in Roseires, Sennar and Khartoum and the wave speed at Khartoum is 8.97 m/s.
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For
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The aim of this research is to use robust technique by trimming, as the analysis of maximum likelihood (ML) often fails in the case of outliers in the studied phenomenon. Where the (MLE) will lose its advantages because of the bad influence caused by the Outliers. In order to address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so as not to be affected by the outliers. These methods have robustness or resistance. Therefore, maximum trimmed likelihood: (MTL) is a good alternative to achieve more results. Acceptability and analogies, but weights can be used to increase the efficiency of the resulting capacities and to increase the strength of the estimate using the maximum weighted trimmed likelihood (MWTL). In order to perform t
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In this paper an estimator of reliability function for the pareto dist. Of the first kind has been derived and then a simulation approach by Monte-Calro method was made to compare the Bayers estimator of reliability function and the maximum likelihood estimator for this function. It has been found that the Bayes. estimator was better than maximum likelihood estimator for all sample sizes using Integral mean square error(IMSE).
The continuous increase in population has led to the development of underground structures like tunnels to be of great importance due to several reasons. One of these reasons is that tunnels do not affect the living activities on the surface, nor they interfere with the existing traffic network. More importantly, they have a less environmental impact than conventional highways and railways. This paper focuses on using numerical analysis of circular tunnels in terms of their behavior during construction and the deformations that may occur due to overburden and seismic loads imposed on them. In this study, the input data are taken from an existing Cairo metro case study; results were found for the lateral and vertical displacements, the Peak
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Sloped solar chimney system is a solar chimney power plant with a sloped collector. Practically, the sloped collector can function as a chimney, then the chimney height can be reduced and the construction cost would be reduced.The continuity, Naver-stockes, energy and radiation transfer equations have been solved and carried out by Fluent software. The governing equations are solved for incompressible, 3-D, steady, turbulent standard model with Boussiuesq approximation to develop for the sloped solar chimney system in this study and evaluate the performance of solar chimney power plant in Baghdad city of Iraq numerically by Fluent (14) software with orking conditions such as solar radiation intensity (30
... Show MoreEuphrates River extends about 125 km within the study area located in Annassiriyah City, Dhi Qar Governorate, Iraq. The impact of the seven hydraulic structures on the discharge capacity of the Euphrates River needs to be considered. The main objectives of this research are to increase the discharge capacity of Euphrates River within Annassiriyah City during flood seasons and study the impact of these hydraulic structures on the river capacity by using HEC-RAS 5.0.3 software. Five scenarios were simulated to study the different current condition of Euphrates River within Annassiriyah City. Other additional four scenarios were implemented through river training to increase the river capacity to 1300 m³/s; it is the flood
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