The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

In the name of of Allah the Merciful
        Praise be to God, and blessings and peace be upon the Messenger of God, Muhammad, and upon his family and his family and peace, and after:
 The honor of every knowledge of honor is related to it, and since the science of interpretation is related to the Book of God Almighty; it is considered one of the most noble and longest of sciences, and this science began long ago as the early ages of Islam have expanded the Islamic state, and people entered the religion of God in cohorts, and the mixture mixed In tongues, and people did not know much about the meanings of the Qur’an, so the need for authorship in this great knowledge was severe, and pe

The avoidance strategy of prey to predation and the predation strategy for predators are important topics in evolutionary biology. Both prey and predators adjust their behaviors in order to obtain the maximal benefits and to raise their biomass for each. Therefore, this paper is aimed at studying the impact of prey’s fear and group defense against predation on the dynamics of the food-web model. Consequently, in this paper, a mathematical model that describes a tritrophic Leslie-Gower food-web system is formulated. Sokol-Howell type of function response is adapted to describe the predation process due to the prey’s group defensive capability. The effects of fear due to the predation process are considered in the first two levels

A twisted-fin array as an innovative structure for intensifying the charging response of a phase-change material (PCM) within a shell-and-tube storage system is introduced in this work. A three-dimensional model describing the thermal management with charging phase change process in PCM was developed and numerically analyzed by the enthalpy-porosity method using commercial CFD software. Efficacy of the proposed structure of fins for performing better heat communication between the active heating surface and the adjacent layers of PCM was verified via comparing with conventional longitudinal fins within the same design limitations of fin material and volume usage. Optimization of the fin geometric parameters including the pitch, numb

This included the study of embryonic development of the heart in different lengths of embryos of Sailfin molly (Poecelia latipinna) fish, which is one of the invasive fish species in Iraq and is spread acrosswater bodies, especially in the marshes that are located in the south of Iraq. The fish samples were collected from the AGhazl market in Baghdad province, and dissected to remove the ovary that containing embryos at different lengths using fine forceps. All the samples were fixed using formalin after making a hole in the gas sac, especially in advanced embryos stage. In a 3 mm embryo, the heart was completely formed and the blood vessels and optic cup were clear, while the lens of the eye was beginning to form. In 4-5 mm embryo, it was

The world is witnessing a remarkable development in the use of technology, which has made it an essential means of investment, especially in the field of management, which provided many of the facilities experienced by the institutions, including improving revenues, shortening time and saving labor. Islamic investment technology as a successful means of management and we touched on the Zakat Foundation as an application model.

Electromyography (EMG) is being explored for evaluating muscle activity. For gait analysis, EMG needs to be small, lightweight, portable device, and with low power consumption. The proposed superficial EMG (sEMG) system is aimed to be used in rehabilitation centers and biomechanics laboratories for gait analysis in Iraq.

The system is built using MyoWare, which is controlled by using STM32F100 microcontroller. The sEMG signal is transferred via Bluetooth to the computer (about 30m range) for further processing. MATLAB is used for sEMG signal conditioning. The overall system cost (without computer) is about $80. The proposed system is validated using wired NORAXON EMG using the mean root mean squared metho