يتكون الانحدار المقسم من عدة أقسام تفصل بينها نقاط انتماء مختلفة، فتظهر حالة عدم التجانس الناشئة من عملية فصل الأقسام ضمن عينة البحث. ويهتم هذا البحث في تقدير موقع نقطة التغيير بين الأقسام وتقدير معلمات الأنموذج، واقتراح طريقة تقدير حصينة ومقارنتها مع بعض الطرائق المستعملة في الانحدار الخطي المقسم. وقد تم استعمال أحد الطرائق التقليدية (طريقة Muggeo) لإيجاد مقدرات الإمكان الأعظم بالأسلوب التكراري للأنموذج ونقطة التغيير معاً، واستعمال أحد الطرائق الحصينة (طريقة IRWm) والتي تعتمد على استعمال تقنية M-estimator الحصين في أسلوب التقسيم وباستعمال دالة الوزن Tukey. وتكمن مساهمتنا في هذا البحث في اقتراح استعمال تقنية S-estimator الحصينة وباستعمال دالة الوزن Tukey، للحصول على طريقة حصينة ضد حالات انتهاك شرط التوزيع الطبيعي للأخطاء العشوائية أو تأثير القيم الشاذة، وستدعى هذه الطريقة IRWs. وقد تم تطبيق الطرائق المذكورة آنفاً على مجموعة بيانات حقيقية متعلقة بحمولة قاع نهر دجلة/ مدينة بغداد كمتغير استجابة وكمية تصريف المياه كمتغير توضيحي. وقد أظهرت نتائج المقارنة أفضلية الطريقة المقترحة.
In this study, we review the ARIMA (p, d, q), the EWMA and the DLM (dynamic linear moodelling) procedures in brief in order to accomdate the ac(autocorrelation) structure of data .We consider the recursive estimation and prediction algorithms based on Bayes and KF (Kalman filtering) techniques for correlated observations.We investigate the effect on the MSE of these procedures and compare them using generated data.
The study aimed at ideutifying the impact of scieutific skills in strategy and liabits of mind amony stueuts in tenth grade . The study demanded to choose a sampie that coutaiun (42) student of the fourth grade of the secondary school who were dirided into tow groups , the first is experimental studied according to scieutific skill strategy , and the other controlling , studied according to the usualway . An achievement test has been taken that adopted staudard for mind skills as research tools that are applid after ascertaining sincerity proved at the end of the experiment .The study has reached to the conclusion that there are statistically significant differnces in farour of the experiment group in both
... Show Moreimportumt educational institution as (kindergartens) need teachers which qualified ownes modalities in their education for children , as Marzanu method in a way of learning and own methods of crisis management, because the teachers that own those styles of learning ginekindergarten children knowledge and the childrenIeaving based on theMeaing and knowledge and integration of their information, And teachers that earn methods of crisis management provide for the children of the kindergarten security within the educational institution which in turn affect the growth and development of the Child and then abilities, health physical, mental, psychological …etc.., The aims of the current research have identified to recognize: 1- the dimension
... Show MoreIn this paper, the delay integral equations in population growth will be described,discussed , studied and transfered this model to integro-differential equation. At last,we will solve this problem by using variational approach.
With the study of synthesizing new organic compounds and exploring biological potency. Aryldiazenyl derivatives (2-5) were carried out by coupling of diazonium salt of 4-aminoacetophenone (1) and miscellaneous active methylene compounds such as: acetylacetone, ethyl cyanoacetate, dimedone or methyl acetoacetate. Moreover substituted 1,2,3-triazole (7-9) were synthesized by the cyclization of 1-(4-azidophenyl) ethanone (6); (which was obtained by coupling of diazonium salt (1) with sodium azid); with acetylacetone, methyl acetoacetate or methyl cyanoacetate, respectively. The structures of the prepared compounds were promoted by IR, H1NMR and UV/Visible spectra. Further, they were examined in vetro for antibacterial activity against five str
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The aim of the research is to identify the cognitive curiosity of students of religious schools in the al-Anbar Governorate. The sample consisted of (346) students from the secondary stage in religious schools affiliated with the Department of Religious Education and Islamic Studies. The sample included (232) males, (114) females, and (225) represented the intermediate stage, (121) represented the preparatory stage in religious schools. The researcher developed a scale of perceptual curiosity comprising (30) items with three alternatives (always applicable to me, rarely applicable to me, not applicable to me). The results showed that religious school students have a perceptive curiosity; there are no sta
... Show MoreThe contemporary ideas were characterized by the abundance and diversity of their knowledge, human and conceptual production, the strategy is both a general and a detailed framework covering all design disciplines both inside and outside the field of architecture. From here, many of these terraces emerged from fields outside the field of architecture, but soon moved to form an important nerve within the field of architecture. Hence the need to define a more comprehensive framework for studying one of the concepts that can frame the framework, namely the concept of "Alliteration", and its adoption as an architectural design strategy aimed at giving the resulting form a feature of rhetoric. So the research highlighted the
... Show MoreThis paper provides an attempt for modeling rate of penetration (ROP) for an Iraqi oil field with aid of mud logging data. Data of Umm Radhuma formation was selected for this modeling. These data include weight on bit, rotary speed, flow rate and mud density. A statistical approach was applied on these data for improving rate of penetration modeling. As result, an empirical linear ROP model has been developed with good fitness when compared with actual data. Also, a nonlinear regression analysis of different forms was attempted, and the results showed that the power model has good predicting capability with respect to other forms.
The ligand 4-(2-aminmo-5-nitro-phenylazo)-1,5-dimethyl-2-phenyl-1,2-dihydro-pyrazol-3-one derived from 4-aminoantipyrine and 4-nitroaniline was synthesized. The synthesized ligand was characterized by 1HNMR, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra and (C.H.N) analysis. Complexes of (YIII and LaIII ) with the ligand were prepared in aqueous ethanol with a 1:2 M:L ratio and at optimum pH. The prepared complexes were characterized by using flame atomic absorption, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra,(C.H.N) analysis and conductivity measurement. The stoichiometry of complexes was studied by the mole ratio and job methods. A concentration range (1×10-4 - 3×10-4 M) obeyed Beer's law, the complex solutions show high values of molar absorption. On the basis of physicochemical
... Show MoreThe world of Contemplations is a controversial concept among scholars, writers, thinkers and the public. The theory of the dialogue of souls indicates that souls communicate and think with each other despite the distances. Islamic studies have researched this concept, and this research paper aims to explain the concept of the world of Contemplations and what is the dialogue between God Almighty and the souls that God brought forth from the back of Adam and took from them the covenant and pledge to unify Him, and its effects on human life in this world. The researcher found that scholars and writers differ in proving the existence of the world of Contemplations despite the existence of examples of it in verses of the Holy Quran, and that the
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