A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar with the relevant studies mortality, and rarely used in studying of fertility (in the Arab world, at least). This model is based on the idea of singular value analysis on a hand, and taking time series impact on the phenomenon into consideration on the other.
The university press is an essential pillar in building an academic community to achieve its objectives in the service of society. Since the university press is a means of university media, which is issued by the departments or units of media in Iraqi universities as academic governmental-institutions, so it highlights the activities of the university and link them to its internal society in the first place as the university press is a mirror of the university and its voice is sincerely expressed. This research comes to know the extent of interest of the university press in various student issues.
In order to identify the problem of the research, the method of content analysis was adopted within the survey method
... Show MoreThe objective of this research to analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving economic stability and growth for the period 2004-2011 ،This period of time saw a fundamental shift in monetary policy after the issuing new law the Central Bank of the full independence of the monetary authority ،This is Prompt the monetary authority to bring about a change in the philosophy and objectives and the tools used to achieve the desired goals ،Which give them the ability to control the size of the money supply and to achieve price stability Indeed، Monetary policy has been able to achieve the golden triangle of economic stability ،Consisted of staff، exchange rate stability and low and stable general level of prices
... Show MoreDemography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making
... Show MoreLinear regression is one of the most important statistical tools through which it is possible to know the relationship between the response variable and one variable (or more) of the independent variable(s), which is often used in various fields of science. Heteroscedastic is one of the linear regression problems, the effect of which leads to inaccurate conclusions. The problem of heteroscedastic may be accompanied by the presence of extreme outliers in the independent variables (High leverage points) (HLPs), the presence of (HLPs) in the data set result unrealistic estimates and misleading inferences. In this paper, we review some of the robust
... Show MoreThe statistical distributions study aimed to obtain on best descriptions of variable sets phenomena, which each of them got one behavior of that distributions . The estimation operations study for that distributions considered of important things which could n't canceled in variable behavior study, as result this research came as trial for reaching to best method for information distribution estimation which is generalized linear failure rate distribution, throughout studying the theoretical sides by depending on statistical posteriori methods like greatest ability, minimum squares method and Mixing method (suggested method).
The research
... Show MoreIn this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the
... Show MoreA two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was
... Show MoreAbstract:
The paper aims to measure an aggregated banking stability index reflecting the degree of stability of the banking system to help policy makers to take the necessary actions to avoid financial crises facing banks and to achieve a banking system with high efficiency in terms of banking risk.
Therefore, the problem of paper is that the Central Bank of Iraq did not seek until 2016 to build a aggregated index for the purpose of identifying the stability of the banking situation in Iraq, but rather on the adoption of scattered indicators, which depend on the mechanism of relative changes in those indicators for the purpose of identifying the situation of b
... Show MoreDespite the significant increase in public spending in Iraq, it was not directed toward the important sectors that have an important role in correcting the productive structure. Rather, most of the public expenditure was going to cover the required imports, or to face shocks, whether security or health, and this caused a continuous decrease in the volume of Iraq's exports of goods and services, as the aim of the study was to review the importance of public debt and its impact on the trade balance, as well as to know the economic policies that can contribute to strengthening the trade balance, as the study proved through the (ARDL) model that there is a direct relationship between the domestic debt and the net trade balance, and an invers
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The research aim is to determine the relation between governmental consumption expenditure (GCE) & GDP in Iraq for the period 1981-2006.
The research has determined the scale of optimization for (GCE) & try to know the extent productivity of this expenditure and using the long run &short run model to test .The results clarify the following
1-The marginal productivity for the (GCE) is positive so it is productive.
2-The (GCE) in Iraq is too high because the marginal productivity for the expenditure less than 1.
3- The (GCE) percentage to GNP is
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