A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar with the relevant studies mortality, and rarely used in studying of fertility (in the Arab world, at least). This model is based on the idea of singular value analysis on a hand, and taking time series impact on the phenomenon into consideration on the other.
سلمان، ندى نجيب. 2015. التباين المكاني السكان الأميين في الوطن العربي للمدة 1990-2009. مجلة آداب ذي قار،مج. 4، ع. 15، ص ص. 101-126.
In this research, the methods of Kernel estimator (nonparametric density estimator) were relied upon in estimating the two-response logistic regression, where the comparison was used between the method of Nadaraya-Watson and the method of Local Scoring algorithm, and optimal Smoothing parameter λ was estimated by the methods of Cross-validation and generalized Cross-validation, bandwidth optimal λ has a clear effect in the estimation process. It also has a key role in smoothing the curve as it approaches the real curve, and the goal of using the Kernel estimator is to modify the observations so that we can obtain estimators with characteristics close to the properties of real parameters, and based on medical data for patients with chro
... Show MoreThere Are Many Communities Suffering Of Unemployment Due To Has Great Social And Economic Impact, As Well As The Psychological Effects Devastating And Serious And That May Threaten States With Collapse And Leading Human Displacement And Loss And Crime, And Often Derive Unemployed People To Practice Bad Habits Such As Gambling, Alcohol And Drug Abuse To Escape From Their Reality To Their Concerns And Problems.
It Should Be Noted, That The Largest Percentage Of Unemployment In Developing Societies Represented By The Educated Class Of University Graduates, And This Is Something Painful.
The Unemployed Know That (Each Capable Of Working And Who Want To Look For And Accept Prevailing Bricks) Is Th
... Show MoreIraq is changing from the centralized system of governance to the decentralized system, which assumes devolution of more authorities to the local governments of Iraqi provinces and cities. This puts a responsibility on the academics to produce more research work on the best framework for this change, to ensure the best results. The main objective of this research is to suggest a policy for the decentralized transformation in domain of Urban and Regional Planning in Iraq. A suggested program for the transformation is involved in the paper as well, with analysis for the new relationships between different levels of planning authorities depending on democracy. In addition, a description for planning process flows from bottom to top.
I came back and made my jewelery from the first research or studies known to man, and the oldest era and confirmed the problem of searching for the links of sweets and admiration of the magnificence of the effectiveness of the search for the importance of preserving the heritage of the Iraqi civilization in its original creative aspects. Metal in Iraq, Head Costume, Neck Costume, Party Costume (Hands and Legs). The main results of the research were;
1-Contemporary folk jewelry in Iraq was characterized by design units for use.
Dependence in the feed industry in the form of laboratory mold.
Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a
... Show MoreThe purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of corrosive environment (corrosive ferric chloride of 1, 2, 5, 6% wt. at room temperature), immersion period of (48, 72, 96, 120, 144 hours), and surface roughness on pitting corrosion characteristics and use the data to build an artificial neural network and test its ability to predict the depth and intensity of pitting corrosion in a variety of conditions. Pit density and depth were calculated using a pitting corrosion test on carbon steel (C-4130). Pitting corrosion experimental tests were used to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models for predicting pitting corrosion characteristics. It was found that artificial neural network models were shown to be
... Show MoreThe marshes are one of the important environmental features affecting human and animal systems, so the studying of changes they undergo is one of the important topics. This study is concerned with the changes occurring in the Al Saadya marsh for the period from 1987 to 2017 exclusively in the winter season (the marshes’ revival season in Iraq revive). In order to inspect the changes in this marsh, we choose 7 years to cover the study period as a criterion years, namely 1987, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2007, 2014 and 2017. The “Maximum Likelihood” classifier was used to separate the stacked land cover features, where the minimum overall accuracy ratio that recorded for all years of study was 96%. The results revealed that Al-Saadya marsh went t
... Show MoreThe research problem focused through the researcher's experience in the gymnastics game and the lack of use of educational models that give the student an important role in the educational process, so it became necessary to identify the type of prevailing style for students, and the need for diversity in the use of educational models based on scientific theories, including the Daniel Document model. Based on three theories of learning, which are structural, behavioral, and meaningful learning. The research aimed to identify the effect of using the Daniel model for people with two types of brain control (left and right) to learn the skill of the Cartwheel in artistic gymnastics for students of the second stage. The researcher used the experi
... Show MoreThere have been many negative phenomena in Iraqi society, especially after the political crises over the last years, such as the spread of violence, the deterioration of the economic situation, the spread of unemployment and poverty, and the disintegration of social ties, divorce, and the entry of the scourge of drugs. Among the most dangerous of these emergent phenomena, the phenomenon of suicide among young people of both sex, which has grown and increased in an unprecedented manner, surpassing all known social norms in Iraqi society and the prevailing religious values. Suicide in Iraqi society has transformed from a simple case to a visible presence in all Iraqi provinces. Suicides cases have registered in all cities of Iraq and of bo
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