A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar with the relevant studies mortality, and rarely used in studying of fertility (in the Arab world, at least). This model is based on the idea of singular value analysis on a hand, and taking time series impact on the phenomenon into consideration on the other.
In this paper we estimate the coefficients and scale parameter in linear regression model depending on the residuals are of type 1 of extreme value distribution for the largest values . This can be regard as an improvement for the studies with the smallest values . We study two estimation methods ( OLS & MLE ) where we resort to Newton – Raphson (NR) and Fisher Scoring methods to get MLE estimate because the difficulty of using the usual approach with MLE . The relative efficiency criterion is considered beside to the statistical inference procedures for the extreme value regression model of type 1 for largest values . Confidence interval , hypothesis testing for both scale parameter and regression coefficients
... Show MoreAbstract: Stars whose initial masses are between (0.89 - 8.0) M☉ go through an Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phase at the end of their life. Which have been evolved from the main sequence phase through Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). The calculations were done by adopted Synthetic Model showed the following results: 1- Mass loss on the AGB phase consists of two phases for period (P <500) days and for (P>500) days; 2- the mass loss rate exponentially increases with the pulsation periods; 3- The expansion velocity VAGB for our stars are calculated according to the three assumptions; 4- the terminal velocity depends on several factors likes metallicity and luminosity. The calculations indicated that a super wind phase (S.W) developed on the A
... Show MoreThese days, it is crucial to discern between different types of human behavior, and artificial intelligence techniques play a big part in that. The characteristics of the feedforward artificial neural network (FANN) algorithm and the genetic algorithm have been combined to create an important working mechanism that aids in this field. The proposed system can be used for essential tasks in life, such as analysis, automation, control, recognition, and other tasks. Crossover and mutation are the two primary mechanisms used by the genetic algorithm in the proposed system to replace the back propagation process in ANN. While the feedforward artificial neural network technique is focused on input processing, this should be based on the proce
... Show MoreThe UV−VIS absorption spectroscopy technique was used to study the formation of a new complex of charge transfer (CT) between bioactive organic molecules as (Nystatin) containing both a π-electrons from a conjugated system and lone-pair of electrons (amine) with Tetrachloro-1,4 benzoquinone (TCBQ) as a π-acceptor in which the transferred electron goes into its vacant anti-bonding molecular orbitals. The Tyrian purple-colored complex formed was quantitatively measured at 544 nm. This complex shows obeying Beer's law within the concentration range of (10-90) μg.ml-1The stoichiometry of the formed complex between the (Nys.) and (TCBQ) was found 1:2 as evaluated by continuous variation (Job's method) and mole ratio method The value of mola
... Show MoreIn this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical method to estimate reliability function of three systems : k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has be
... Show MoreThe imbalances and economic problems which it face the countries, it is a result of international economic developments or changes or global crises such as deterioration in trade, sharp changes in oil prices, increasing global indebtedness, sharp changes in foreign exchange rates and other changes, all that, they affect the economic features of any country. and These influences vary from one country to another according to the rigidity of its economy and its potential in maneuvering with economic plans and actions that would reduce the impact or avoidance with minimal damage. Therefore, the countries that suffer from accumulated economic problems as a result of mismanagement and poor planning or suffe
... Show MoreThe world's renewable energy sources have taken on great importance, for its cleanness and its environmental effects as well as being a renewable source, Increased demand for fossil energy sources is also causing global warming and climate change. Iraq is an appropriate area for renewable energy This study shows that renewable alternative energy has not been used sufficiently enough at present. But this energy can play an important role in the future of renewable energy in Iraq. This research aims to study the renewable energy in Iraq (solar energy) and it is appropriate to develop this alternative energy for crude oil, which is characterized by the use of the most appropriate and less economical and more environmentally friendly. Solar
... Show MoreThe novels that we have addressed in the research, Including those with the ideological and political ideology, It's carry a negative image for the Kurds without any attempt to understand, empathy and the separation between politics and the people, The novels were deformation of the image, Like tongue of the former authority which speaks their ideas, Such as (Freedom heads bagged, Happy sorrows Tuesdays for Jassim Alrassif, and Under the dogs skies for Salah Salah). The rest of novels (Life is a moment for Salam Ibrahim, The country night for Jassim Halawi, The rib for Hameed Aleqabi). These are novels contained a scene carries a negative image among many other social images, some positive, and can be described as neutral novels. We can
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In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t
... Show MoreEach project management system aims to complete the project within its identified objectives: budget, time, and quality. It is achieving the project within the defined deadline that required careful scheduling, that be attained early. Due to the nature of unique repetitive construction projects, time contingency and project uncertainty are necessary for accurate scheduling. It should be integrated and flexible to accommodate the changes without adversely affecting the construction project’s total completion time. Repetitive planning and scheduling methods are more effective and essential. However, they need continuous development because of the evolution of execution methods, essent