Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This study examines the opportunity presented by the COVID-19 pandemic for city planners and leaders to learn from the crisis and build resilient cities with long-term societal, economic, and environmental resilience against future disasters. The research focuses on the relationship between urban planning and policies and the extent of their resilience, particularly in response to pandemic-related disasters. The study evaluates the ability of the city of Baghdad to respond to the pandemic and identifies gaps in its resilience. The study uses the scorecard measurement instrument to examine the disaster resilience of cities, with a focus on governance and financial capability, disaster planning and preparedness, and disaster response

The aim of this study is to provide an overview of various models to study drug diffusion for a sustained period into and within the human body. Emphasized the mathematical compartment models using fractional derivative (Caputo model) approach to investigate the change in sustained drug concentration in different compartments of the human body system through the oral route or the intravenous route. Law of mass action, first-order kinetics, and Fick's perfusion principle were used to develop mathematical compartment models representing sustained drug diffusion throughout the human body. To adequately predict the sustained drug diffusion into various compartments of the human body, consider fractional derivative (Caputo model) to investiga

The research aims to show the dimensions of organizational trust represented by (administrative policies opportunities for innovation and self innovation and self- realization,availability of information,prevailing organizational values) and its reiationship to achieving the strategic position of banks represented by formation of expectations,buiiding networks,learning operations As the research was applied in each of the banks (middle east)Iraqi investment,Al-Ahly Iraqi, Business Bay, Al- Mansour investment bank),the qusestionnaire was adopted as a tool to collect data and information from the sample number (138)who are in the site (department director, division ,M.division director ,division officer, unit officer)the statistica

     This study aims to impact statement played by banking governance according to the decisions of the Basel Committee in achieving the strategic objectives of the banks, But order to achieve the this goal has been the adoption of two hypotheses in addition to the two main hypotheses as sub answered preliminary The study seeks to verify their health and two (no correlation relationship and impact between Banking  governance and achieve strategic objectives), has been tested hypotheses. Study has reached

Abstract:
This research aims to the importance of oil in achieving economic
security in the Arab. Oil is not an ordinary subject and returns it significance to
the followings:
1. The importance of skipping a source of energy.
2. The importance of oil as raw material for petrochemical industry.
3. The importance of the oil sector as an area of foreign investment
4. The importance of oil in the marketing activities, transport, insurance
and various services
In addition to the importance of oil in general and the Arab oil has
additional strategic advantages such as geographic location, And the
magnitude of reserves and production of heavy investment costs are relatively
simple, And the ability to meet the

The Yemen Kings and gaverners allered notable services to the pilgrims, who
were in their way to perform the pilgrimage to Mecca. Among them Al-Hysen Ibn
Salama (dead 384, Aih). The governer of Al- Zeadiea state, who concern about
pilgrimage route from its beginning at Hudrumot to its end at Mecca Al Makruma, the
distant was estimated by 60th days to pass the way he also eastablished asystem of
water “artesian wells” as long as the pilgrimage way also setting up large Mosqeses
and Marking out the way of the caravans of pilgrimage to save these caravans from
lossing the right way, he setting up under ground water chanal started from Arafat to
holy Mecca in order to ensure water supplies for the erea. This proje

Abstract

People are supposed to use language harmoniously and compatibly. However, aggression may characterize much of human communication. Aggression has long been recognized as a negative anti-social issue that prevails in most personal interactions. If it abounds in familial communications, it is more dangerous due to its harmful effects on individuals, and consequently on societies. Aggression refers to all the instances in which we try to get our way without any consideration for others. Moriarty’s novel (2014), Big Little Lies, is argued to represent the patterns of aggressive communications. This study aims to find out the motivations behind aggressive language in familial communication in this