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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Unplanned Urbanization and Agricultural Land Degradation in Baghdad City from 2003 to 2017: احمد عباس كاظم , ليث زيد عباس
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Several problems have emerged as a result of urban expansion or the connection of urban areas with rural areas. This process has led to the urbanization of rural areas, and to have overlapping edges and margins of areas, which were outside the basic design of the city. Accordingly, the present research assumes that the accelerating growth of Baghdad population has contributed significantly to the process of unplanned urbanization. Thus, the study aims to examine the factors that have led to an increase of urban sprawl at the expense of the agricultural land. The study has thus adopted the descriptive, analytical, and historical approaches relying on the simple linear regression method to predict the phenomenon of urban expansion and its

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2010
Journal Name
المجلة السياسية والدولية
الدور الاقليمي العراقي :رؤية في الثوابت الاستراتيجية والتحديات المستقبلية :دراسة استشرافية للدور الاقليمي العراقي ومقوماته الاستراتيجية والاقتصادية والسياسية الفرص المتاحه والقيود
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يناقش البحث المقومات المادية والمجتمعية والموضوعية للدور الاقليمي العراقي بعد العام 2010 والفرص المتاحة والقيود التي تحد منه والافاق المستقبلية لهذا الدور في ظل بيئة اقليمية تسودها منظومات تحالف متناقضة في الاهداف والاستراتيجيات

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Verbal formulas in Turgut Özakman’s play Oh Those Young: Turgut Özakman'ın "Ah Şu Gençler" Başlıklı Tiyatrosunda Fiil Kiplerinin İncelenmesi
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  The study sheds lights on the simple verbal formulas with its particular time suffixes as found in the Turgut Özakman’s play These Crazy Turks.

     The introduction of the study sheds light on the life of the author and playwright, as well as traces the different types of the verbal formulas in Turkish language.

     Oh Those Young is one of the most significant products of the Turkish literature of the young and Children where the literary messages of the playwright are addressed in a simple comic sarcastic style. Hence, the play, that has been studied and acted by many students and academics, drives its importance from this particular course of action.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Increasing Rehabilitation Program Using Electric Stimulation On Rehabilitating Knee Joint Working Muscles Due to ACL Tear In Athletes
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The research aimed at designing a rehabilitation program using electric stimulation for rehabilitating knee joint working muscles as a result of ACL tear using an apparatus developed by the researchers that stimulate the muscle vibration and work as well as the ability to rehabilitate the join in shorter periods. In addition to that, it aimed at identifying the effect of this program on rehabilitating the knee joint working muscles. The researchers used the experimental method on Baghdad clubs’ players who suffer from complete knee joint ACL tear aged (19 – 24) years old. The results showed that the training program developed the working muscles significantly achieving normal levels of activity.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Impact of using the strategy of shape (V) on the Achievement of the students of the Department of Artistic Education: كريم حواس علي، نجلاء خضير حسان
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This research aim at finding out the impact of using the strategy of shape V on the achievement of the students of the Department of Artistic Education in the subject of "Principles of scientific Research ". This strategy is one of the cognitive strategies used in this topic . To verify the aim of the research ,the two researchers have put the following null hypothesis:-There are no significant differences on the level of 0,05 among the average degrees of the students of the experimental group in their answers on the topics of the pre and post cognitive achievement tests of the subject of "principles of scientific Research " . The two researchers have adopted the experimental approach which consists of one group . the population of the r

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Using Cubing Technique in the Iraqi EFL Secondary Students' Composition Writing, Vocabulary, and Meta-Cognitive Awareness
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Abstract

The aim of this research is to determine how well the Cubing Technique affects the Iraqi EFL students' composition writing, vocabulary, and meta-cognitive awareness of writing strategies. The sample of (64) secondary-school female students in the fifth grade is drawn from two classrooms and split into two equal groups: the experimental group and the control group, each of which consists of (32) students. A quasi-experimental design is applied. The performance test and Meta-cognitive Writing Strategies questionnaire are given as a pre-test for equalizing the two groups after ensuring their validity and reliability. Then, they are administrated as a posttest in both groups. According to the results, the si

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 02 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The use of Arabic-Islamic Theme in The Stories of Western writers: El empleo del material árabe-islámico en las historias de los escritores occidentales
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This article presents and  explores the theoretical aspect in the use of Arab Islamic theme by the western writers to obtain and achieve individual motives. In this study the model for the theory of Arab presence in Andalusia  , through the book entitled “ Alhamra” by the English writer Washington Erving ,was  analyzed.

The most important results in this research: the success of  the author in the employment of the Islamic history in the formation of the first American legend, Columbus legend, through the selection of the right thoughts to establish his American National theory.  The author compared between the Andalusia experience and the Arab occupation to Spain and the American conquest of the new

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الادارة والاقتصادللدراسات الاقتصادية والادارية والمالية
تصميم الترتيب الداخلي األمثل باستعمال تقنية التخصيص النسبي المحوسب للتسهيالت )CRAFT)بحث تطبيقي في الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية – مصنع المأمون
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The facilities layout are among the most important of the most influential factors in the efficiency of the production system, and represents the systematic layout of the various work centers, tools, persons, and other auxiliary services within the factory. Careful selection of the technique that would be used in Re-layout, represents an important step in reaching to the optimum layout that keeps on reducing handling costs and reduce unnecessary movement of materials, as well as the regularity and functioning of the flow of materials through the facilities. The research aims to propose a new layout of (Al-M'ammon Factory / The General Company for Vegetable Oils Industry), and then re-layout according to the new propose layout by using of te

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Reflection of the application TD-ABC approach on profits persistence Applied study in the General State of Hydraulic Industries Factory of Plastic*
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The interest of many companies has become dealing with the tools and methods that reduce the costs as one of the most important factors of successful companies, and became the subject of the attention of many economic units because of the impact on the profits of company, and since the nineties of the last century the researchers and writers gave great attention to this subject, especially in light of the large competition and rapid developments in cost management techniques, as well as the wide and significant change in production methods that have been directed towards achieving customer satisfaction, all this and more driven by economic units in all sectors whether it is service or productivity to find methods that would reduc

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Efficiency of Human Resources Information System and Its Impact on The Level Effectiveness of Employees Performance Appraisal System / Practical Research on Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research
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Abstract

The research aims to determine the role of the efficiency of Human Resources Information System in the effectiveness of Employees Performance Appraisal System in the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research / Center for the ministry, it was touching the researchers need the ministry to devise methods that employ outputs Human Resources Information System in the organization surveyed for the development of methods and levels of process evaluate the performance of its employees, in order to identify the extent of the role played by human resources information system in the process of assessing the performance of employees, we raised the question of the President as follows:

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