تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Problem: Find dimensions of the problem by answering the following question: what the effect of using the Six Thinking Hats strategy to acquire the historical concepts and retain the fourth-grade students in the subject of literary history. Importance of research: current research is gaining importance in many ways, including: 1. Keep pace with the new in the field of education and modern educational strategies. 2. Shed light on innovative education strategy in the teaching of history, which is one of the materials that need to renew the tragedy of instruction methods for students. 3. Out of the monotony and traditional way of teaching to a method and a new strategy to develop the teacher and the learners thinking skills through various
... Show MoreThe City of Ember is a very interesting novel that is although intended for young readers, have so many layers and messages that are misunderstood. In this research, both the novel and the film adaptation are studied with the intent to decode the warning messages that the novelist and the director tried to introduce to the audience. The research studies four vital messages; the first message is that history repeats itself for the novel has many allusions to the history of Jews and their painful holocaust and even goes back in history the days of Moses and the Exodus, the second message tackles the conspiracy theory that states nothing happens by accident and that everything is planned and connected hence comes the third message
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Most of the industrial organization in the world became suffering from the problem of the pollution of the poisonous chemicals things, this urged to depend on the principle of the responsible production, because it has the positive role by dealing with these chemical things and to safe the health of the society, due to the main goal of this study is to restrict the role responsible production in accomplishing the system of the environmental management through an actual study in the northern gas company in Kirkuk province, the topic has acquired a big importance bacause there were a limited number of studies and res
... Show MoreThe goal of current research to:1 - Know when aesthetic implications (Korchh)2 - To form the structure of systemic indicators and results that reflect the visions of intellectual, philosophical and aesthetic art for this study.The theoretical framework for the study of the search for the meaning of beauty, definition ( Krochh) being a philosopher, his views, his own aesthetic philosophy, knowledge, art and beauty, as well as a subject of artistic and aesthetic taste and Study in Art Education.The goals have been achieved during the search of Investigation theoretical framework for the search, which tried (INT) to form a clear vision check the second goal by the indicators reached.In light of this, the researcher recommended the need for
... Show MoreArts acts to reduce and exclude everything that is not necessary in the delivery of meaning, especially representative performance, which is based on the intensification of the physical and vocal actions, and in drawing the dimensions of the character. And because that, the artistic staff, among others in the ministry of education, are considered the cornerstone, in the development of theatrical activities in schools, this research came to find out the extent to which teachers in primary schools, in secondary schools and artistic supervisors rely on shorthand mechanisms in the representative performance.
The current research relied on the descriptive approach, in analyzing his sample, which was deliberately chosen, Among the most imp
The study aims to design an electronic puppet educational theater by Camtasia studio and identify the effectiveness in learning some of the artistic gymnastics skills for first grade, the research curriculum is experimental by designing two equal groups, and the research sample first grade students are distributed among 4 grade, and by the pumpkin determines two divisions (15 from each) representing the experimental group and control group, the main experiment conducted for 8 weeks by two educational units per week after which the post-tests were conducted, SPSS was used to process the results, and it was found that the electronic puppet educational theater contributed by making the learning process enjoyable and interesting and meeting the
... Show MoreThe research is trying to identify the investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impact, on the Profitability ratios of the company, and whether the company's scientific methods followed in the measurement of these risks, and conducted research in the National Insurance Company. by relying on its annual budget as well as the annual reports, The search dealing with these data in theoretical and practical major premise to statistically significant between to investment portfolio risk and financial performance correlation and reach a set of conclusions and recommendations which are the following.
investments include many ri
... Show Moreهدف البحث إلى إعداد تمرينات منطقة الشدة الثالثة للقوة المميزة بالسرعة للرجلين للاعبين الشباب بكرة القدم، والتعرف على تأثير تمرينات منطقة الشدة الثالثة للقوة المميزة بالسرعة للرجلين في السرعة الانتقالية وفي سرعة التهديف للاعبين الشباب بكرة القدم، وأفترض الباحث بأنه توجد فروق ذات دلالة إحصائية بين نتائج الاختبارات القبلية والبعدية لمجموعتي البحث التجريبية والضابطة لكل من السرعة الانتقالية وسرعة التهديف ب
... Show MoreInternational news websites, including Russia Today, pay special attention to the media image of Afghan women, especially after the Taliban movement took control of Afghanistan. Therefore, it was necessary to know the image of the Afghan woman, the fate of the rights she acquired in recent years, and the transformations that affected her after the Taliban took control of the government, and studied them on international news sites, specifically Russia Today.
The researcher summarized the problem of this study in the following question: What is the media image of the Afghan woman on the Russia Today news site?
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