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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 24 2018
Journal Name
المجلة العلمية للتربية البدنية والرياضية - جامعة الإسكندرية مصر
وضع تدريبات بليومترية وفقا لبعض المؤشرات البيوميكانيكية والعضلية لتحسين أداء الركلة من علامة الجزاء في كرة القدم - اطروحة دكتوراه
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تتطلب كرة القدم الحديثة تطوير الصفات البدنية والمهارية للوصول باللاعب إلى لمستويات العليا، ولما كانت هذه الصفات مرتبطة مع بعضها البعض، فانها تتطلب ان يتم تطويرها معا في نفس الوقت دون تنمية كل صفة على حده، وإن توافر الحد الأدنى من الصفات البدنية كمتطلبات أساسية للأداء المهاري يعتبر الهدف الأساسي للتخطيط لأي برنامج تدريبي، وإن الصفات البدنية لها مفهوم شاسع وواسع الاستعمال في مجال البحوث الرياضية، وقد أعطيت ع

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 12 2020
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تحفة الأصحاب ونزهة ذوي الألباب (ما جاء في ذكر المعادن)، احمد بن إبراهيم الحنفي السروجي (ت710هـ/1310م)،"دراسة وتحقيق".
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Manuscript (Tuhfat Al-Ashaba and the Nuzha Al-Kulbab) by Ahmed bin Ibrahim Al-Hanafi Al-Suruji (d.710 AH / 1310 AD), one of the important manuscripts as an encyclopedia characterized by the diversity of its topics

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 17 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental and Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network of Bed Porosity and Solid Holdup in Viscous 3-Phase Inverse Fluidization
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In the present investigation, bed porosity and solid holdup in viscous three-phase inverse fluidized bed (TPIFB) are determined for aqueous solutions of carboxy methyl cellulose (CMC) system using polyethylene and polypropylene as  a particles with low-density and diameter (5 mm) in a (9.2 cm) inner diameter with height (200 cm) of vertical perspex column. The effectiveness of gas velocity Ug , liquid velocity UL, liquid viscosity μL, and particle density ρs on bed porosity BP and solid holdups εg were determined. The bed porosity increases with "increasing gas velocity", "liquid velocity", and "liquid viscosity". Solid holdup decreases with increasing gas, liquid

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
US-Russian Interventions in the Caspian-Caucasus Basin Countries after 2001: (Strategies to Re-Impose Control and Influence as a Model)
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Today, the five Caspian riparian states on the shores of the Caspian Sea (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran) have become a front for ambitions and international and regional competition, especially in light of the features and characteristics that natural geography has endowed them with and their enjoyment of a group of economic and mineral wealth that are not optimally exploited so far which made it a strategic attraction area for international trends and interventions, especially Western ones. It is a battleground for major international companies aiming to monopolize promising industrial investments in order to impose control and influence on the region’s resources and economic wealth and thus impose their forei

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Auditing the technical reserves of the aircraft body insurance branch and its reflection on the fairness of the financial statements : applied research in the National Insurance Company
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The research gained its importance from the importance of technical reserves in the insurance activity and its impact on the result of the activity of insurance companies and their financial position and thus reflected on the insurance prices as the technical reserves are one of the most important and most valuable budget items usually, as well as that the insurance activity has a role in maintaining economic development where some countries develop laws and instructions for the formation of those reserves binding application to insurance companies and the fact that the financial statements in general are of interest to shareholders, banks, the General Tax Authority and other beneficiaries In the insurance activity as policyholders and t

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Investigating Adverbs' in Vatan yahut Silistre by Namik Kemal: Namık Kemal'ın ''Vatan Yahut Silistre'' Başlıklı Tiyatrosu'nda Geçen Zarfların İncelenmesi
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       It is a common Knowledge that adverbs in Turkish languages can modify verbs, adjectives, nouns or other adverbs. Moreover, adverbs can determine the meanings of nouns and verbs in a sentence as far as time, place, manner, quantity and interrogative are concerned. The present study debates adverbs’ functions in Namiq Kamal’s play Vatan yahut Silistre.

 The study sheds light on the author’s use of the adverbs to describe the required theatrical actions of the play  and to convey his reflections and thoughts easily to the auidence. One of the main hindrances encountered in conducting the study is the shortage of the  upto date academic resources necessary for

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Estimates of Palestinian University Students in Gaza Governorate to the Contribution Degree of Teaching Human Sciences in their Political Education: محمود عبد المجيد عساف
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The study aims to examine the estimation of a sample of Palestinian University students in Gaza governorate to the contribution of teaching human sciences in their political education. It further aims to reveal whether there are statistically significant differences at a significance level (α≤ 0.05) between the averages of the sample. Such differences might be attributed to the following variables: sex, residential area, specialization. To achieve this, the researcher used the descriptive approach by applying a tool of (50) items on (618) randomly chosen male and female students from the largest Palestinian universities in the governorates of Gaza. Results have shown that: the overall degree of estimation to the contribution of teachi

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 26 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Education and the Challenges of Globalization during the Corona Pandemic: A Field Study from Baghdad University Professors’ Point of View: ميسم ياسين عبيد
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study aims to examine education and the challenges of globalization in light of Corona pandemic. The examination involves surveying a randomly selected sample from the University of Baghdad’s professors, particularly from the colleges of Education for Women, Arts, and Sciences. The purpose of this examination is to learn about the dimensions of globalization, its effects on the educational process, and the importance of distance education during the spread of Corona virus quarantine. To achieve this, the researcher followed a descriptive and analytical approach by applying a questionnaire to a sample of 70 teachers who were randomly selected electronically. Results have shown that 78.6% emphasized the contribution of globalization duri

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The responsibility of the administration in compliance with the going concern assumption during the preparation for their financial statements: Research practically at muster of companies
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This research aims to demonstrate the impact of the going concern assumption in different accounting applications to provide a realistic look and more accurate result of activity and financial situation, as well as determining the responsibility of the Company's administration in compliance with the going concern assumption during the preparation for their financial statements, and to clarify the concept of integration between internal audit and external audit about going concern assumption, besides its importance and usefulness on the work of both of the internal auditor and the external auditor, as well as on the company under auditing process.This research purports preparing an internal audit program, including a set of auditing actio

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Electrodepositing of Multi-Layer Ni-Ag Coated by Copper Nanoparticles for Solar Absorber
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In this work, the effect of the addition of bright nickel plating and silver carried out by the electroplating method has been studied, on the coating of copper nanoparticles on the copper base metal via the process of thermal evaporation. The improvement of the solar absorber using CuNP in combination with the bright nickel and silver was obtained to be better than copper nanoparticles individually. A bright nickel enhanced the absorbed thermal stability. Also, other optical properties, absorptions, and emissivity slightly decreased from (93% to 87%), while the existence of silver had a slight impact on absorption of about (86.50%). On the other hand, thermal conductivity was evaluated using hot disk analyzer. The results showed a good

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