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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Posteriori L_∞ (L_2 )+L_2 (H^1 )–Error Bounds in Discontinuous Galerkin Methods For Semidiscrete Semilinear Parabolic Interface Problems
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The aim of this paper is to derive a posteriori error estimates for semilinear parabolic interface problems. More specifically, optimal order a posteriori error analysis in the - norm for semidiscrete semilinear parabolic interface problems is derived by using elliptic reconstruction technique introduced by Makridakis and Nochetto in (2003). A key idea for this technique is the use of error estimators derived for elliptic interface problems to obtain parabolic estimators that are of optimal order in space and time.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Word Cloud Model based on Hate Speech in an Online Social Media Environment
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Social media is known as detectors platform that are used to measure the activities of the users in the real world. However, the huge and unfiltered feed of messages posted on social media trigger social warnings, particularly when these messages contain hate speech towards specific individual or community. The negative effect of these messages on individuals or the society at large is of great concern to governments and non-governmental organizations. Word clouds provide a simple and efficient means of visually transferring the most common words from text documents. This research aims to develop a word cloud model based on hateful words on online social media environment such as Google News. Several steps are involved including data acq

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Deep Learning Techniques in the Cancer-Related Medical Domain: A Transfer Deep Learning Ensemble Model for Lung Cancer Prediction
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Problem: Cancer is regarded as one of the world's deadliest diseases. Machine learning and its new branch (deep learning) algorithms can facilitate the way of dealing with cancer, especially in the field of cancer prevention and detection. Traditional ways of analyzing cancer data have their limits, and cancer data is growing quickly. This makes it possible for deep learning to move forward with its powerful abilities to analyze and process cancer data. Aims: In the current study, a deep-learning medical support system for the prediction of lung cancer is presented. Methods: The study uses three different deep learning models (EfficientNetB3, ResNet50 and ResNet101) with the transfer learning concept. The three models are trained using a

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Typical Effect of Flower and Coscroff on Expressive the Development of Lateral Thinking among the Literary Fifth Grade Students
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the typical effect of Flower and Coscroft on expressive performance and the development of lateral thinking among literary fifth-grade students. To achieve the research objective, the researcher chose a sample of (90) female students from the fifth literary grade, with two experimental groups and a control group. The research groups are of six subjects. The research found that the two experimental groups have more expressive performance than the control group. Students of the first experimental group outperformed the students of the second experimental group in expressive performance and lateral thinking tests. In light of the findings of the research, the researcher

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Proposed Strategy According to the Realistic Mathematics Theory on the Achievement and Mathematical Interrelation of third Intermediate Students
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effect of the proposed strategy in accordance with realistic mathematics on the achievement and mathematical Interrelation of third Intermediate students. Two samples were tested from the middle third grade in a school affiliated with the General Directorate of Baghdad- Rusafa, the first for the academic year (2022-2021). The experimental group is (30) students taught according to the proposed strategy, and the control group is (30) students based on the traditional method. To achieve the research objective, the researchers developed a test for achievement consisting of (30) items and a test of sports interconnection composed of (20) items. The results of the stu

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Green Synthesis of Iron/Copper Nanoparticles as a Catalytic of Fenton-like Reactions for Removal of Orange G Dye
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This research paper studies the use of an environmentally and not expensive method to degrade Orange G dye (OG) from the aqueous solution, where the extract of ficus leaves has been used to fabricate the green bimetallic iron/copper nanoparticles (G-Fe/Cu-NPs). The fabricated G‑Fe/Cu-NPs were characterized utilizing scanning electron microscopy, BET, atomic force microscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and zeta potential. The rounded and shaped as like spherical nanoparticles were found for G-Fe/Cu‑NPs with the size ranged 32-59 nm and the surface area was 4.452 m2/g. Then the resultant nanoparticles were utilized as a Fenton-like oxidation catalyst. The degradation efficiency of

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Characterization, and Investigation the Inhibitory Impact of Thiosemicarbazide Derivative toward the Corrosion of Mild Steel in Acidic Media
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        In this study we focused on the determination of influence the novel synthesized thiosemicarbazide derivative "2-(2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzylidene) hydrazinecarbothioamide" (HMHC) influenced the corrosion inhibition of mild steel (MS) in a 1.0 M hydrochloric acid acidic solution.This is in an effort to preserve the metal material by maintaining it from corrosion.The synthesized inhibitor was characterized using elemental analysis, and NMR-spectroscopy. Then the corrosion inhibition capability of (HMHC) was studied on mild steel in an acidic medium by weight loss technique within variables [temperature, inhibitor concentration, and time]. The immersion periods were [1:00, 3:00, 5:00, 10:00, 24:00, and 72:00] hours and the tem

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EFFECT OF ADDING QUERCETIN TO TRIS EXTENDER IN SOME SEMEN CHARACTERISTICS OF AWASSI RAMS AFTER DIFFERENT PERIODS OF CRYOPRESERVATION: EFFECT OF ADDING QUERCETIN TO TRIS EXTENDER IN SOME SEMEN CHARACTERISTICS OF AWASSI RAMS AFTER DIFFERENT PERIODS OF CRYOPRESERVATION
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ABSTRACT

The study evaluated the effect of adding quercetin to some characteristics of the sperm of the ram. This study was conducted in the animal field, Department of Animal Production, College of Agricultural Engineering Science, University of Baghdad for the period 5/12/2021 to 20/2/2022. In this experiment, 3 rams were used at the age of 2-2.5 years and weighed 50-55 kg. The semen was collected early in the morning and once a week and the semen was pooled to remove the individual differences. The treatments were divided: quercetin-free control group, treatment T1 (3 µL/mL quercetin), T2 treatment (6 µL/mL quercetin), T3 treatment (9 µL/mL quercetin). The result of the study showed

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 17 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Use of the Definite article in the Ottoman Turkish Language in the Fourteenth and Seventeenth Centuries: Qaboos Namah and Mazaki Collection as a Model: '' Kabusnâme ve Mezâkî Divanı Örneğinde ''14. ve 17. Yüzyılarda Osmanlı Türkçesinde Harf-i Ta'rifin Kullanması Üzerine Bir İnceleme
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The Turks used the Ottoman Turkish language from the thirteenth century to the twentieth century.  During this period and under the influence of Islamic civilization, a large number of words and structures were used from the Arabic and Persian languages, Therefore, many Arabic grammatical structures were used in the Ottoman Turkish language, such as the definite article simply because it was widely used.

The paper is concerned with the use of the Arabic definite article in the Ottoman Turkish language, and the aim of this contrastive study is to find out the similarities and differences between the two languages ​​in terms of meaning and structure. Since linguistic studies depend on the practical side or applied approach, two

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Management using the Six Sigma approach to cost rationalization of activities : Application in the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory
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The textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi

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