تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
This study aims to studying of Person and organization’s environment fit in a sample of Private bank’s reflection in its basic dimensions (Person-organization fit ,Person-Job fit, Person-group fit and Person- Person-fit )in the Work Outcomes (job satisfaction, the intention to leave the job, Job Engagement, and organizational citizenship behavior ).
The questionnair’e has been used as a basic instrument to gather data , As well as personal interviews with some of the staff of the research sample of private banks which were represented by (5) and included banks (Bank of Assyria for investment, the North Bank for Finance and Investment , Bank of the Tigris
... Show MoreAbstract
The Paper highlights on one of the main activities in marketing management. That is the internal marketing in the commercial banks and its relationship with the quality services offered to satisfy customers needs and wishes in order to reach he ultimate objectives of those banks. Two state and five private banks in Basrah city (Iraq) were taken in a field study. The survey covered the opinions of (184) state bank employees and (158) clients . The analysis of the survey shows that there is a strong relationship between the internal marketing ( in the banks covered by the survey) and the quality of banking objective services and the private banks show greater interest and concern to the internal ma
... Show MoreIn this research the Empirical Bayes method is used to Estimate the affiliation parameter in the clinical trials and then we compare this with the Moment Estimates for this parameter using Monte Carlo stimulation , we assumed that the distribution of the observation is binomial distribution while the distribution with the unknown random parameters is beta distribution ,finally we conclude that the Empirical bayes method for the random affiliation parameter is efficient using Mean Squares Error (MSE) and for different Sample size .
Haruki Murakami (1949-present) is a contemporary Japanese writer whose works have been translated into fifty languages and won him plenty of Japanese and international awards. His short stories are well constructed in a weird realistic manner and are mixed with elements of surrealism. His novels and short stories fall under the genre of magical realism. One of the major revolving themes that Murakami wrote about was the haunting feeling of emptiness and disconnectedness in a world which seems to care much for materialism and self-interests.
The paper explores two of Murakami’s short stories in his book After the Quake (2000) and the relevance of their themes and characters to Iraq after the q
... Show Moreتعدُّ حقوق الإنسان من الأمور التي حثّ الدين الإسلامي على احترامها ومن الأمور غير مسموح المساس بها ، وإنّ إغفالها أو إهمالها أو تضييعها يؤدي الى نتائج خطرة
Tax state institution regards as one of the largest state institutions implementing the tax rules issuing be legislative body and achieving the goals of tax (financial, economic, social and political). So, the tax management should pay attention to the procedures enabling it to achieve those rules starting from the procedures of tax restrict and ending by tax allocation where the process of assessment the taxation must relaxing on modern methods. The problem of the study raising from that in spite of there is a low obliging the taxable person (registered or not) to submit a declaration about his income and the achieved profit to be the base of taxation˒ where the other ways are secondary ways helping in rejection of t
... Show MoreThe research aims at determining the main reason for the deterioration of the services and determining the correct method of distributing the funds to the administrative and administrative units. The discrepancy between the size of the financial allocations and the municipal services was the main research problem. Therefore, the researcher identified the gaps in municipal services by the concerned departments and compared them with The percentage of funds obtained through the work of a checklist for each of the directorates concerned. The researcher studied the specific criteria for these services, which were approved by the Ministry of Construction, Housing, Municipalities, and Public Works, and compared them wi
... Show MoreAbstract\
The developed financial infrastructure is one of the most important elements for achieving stable financial system in a country. The importance of developed financial infrastructure comes from its role in create economic and financial context attractive for foreign investments. Thus, this paper aims first to measure an index of financial infrastructure, and secondly, to gauge the nexus between the developed financial infrastructure and foreign investments inflow in Malaysia and Indonesia. We estimate the index of financial infrastructure by using different indicators such as (the institutional environment, access to finance, legal environment, and others).
By using the G
... Show MoreThe musical sign was associated with the first appearances of acting that are based on human gestures and expressive and silent movements, and they contributed in accentuating and clarifying these gestures and explain their meanings and indications, and they remained with them until these gestures turned into artistic theatrical shows so that the musical sign would have many functions and constitute the main pillars for this kind of show.
The musical sign is a language not much different than the human language in the semiotic analysis. There has been an increased interest in it and its use in the mime shows by the graduates who realized its necessity and significance in the pantomime show intellectually, artistically and aesthetical